The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 8
Backing a primetime underdog early and late in Week 8
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Week 7 was more of the same in the NFL upset game, as in, there weren’t any real shockers. While that’s annoying, the bigger concern is that the biggest underdogs are largely not even covering.
It’s been just a handful of games - after all, so many game have been lined inside a field goal lately. We have to remember that, like the dense collection of underdogs winning outright early in the season, that it’s all just probability variance and result clusters.
As we turn towards Week 8, at least we know there are plenty of underdogs to choose from - and bigger ones than we’ve seen all season.
The RUMP Week 7 answer-key:
Was there a path to RUMP victory last week?
Each week we reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.
Seahawks +130
Lions +100
Chiefs +110
Steelers +135
Cardinals +100Sure, there was technically a path to victory in Week 7, but it wasn’t much of one. Let’s say we went super “conservative” and only hit three, even with the best three, you would have barely broke even. The idea is to at least make money with any three upsets.
For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket here. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.
How it works
Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team moneyline parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team moneyline parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than even money. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!
Who to play
As always, these are five underdogs we like against the spread. Based on a pet peeve - our underdogs performing so well they win outright, we use their moneylines to make up an extra bet, hoping the five ATS games will more than make up for losing the RUMP if three or more fall short of victory.
Rams (+130) over Vikings
(ATS bet: Rams +3)
We broke down why the Rams might be in the perfect spot to get their season back on track in the Thursday Night Football preview. Sure, there’s the return of Cooper Kupp to open up things for the Rams’ offense for the first time since Week 1 (and the slight chance of a return of Puka Nacua). However, the reason we have to include the Rams here is that the four teams who played a week after facing the Lions all lost as the favorite. The Vikings come off an intense battle with the Lions, and are doing so on a short week.
Cardinals (+150) over Dolphins
(ATS bet: Cardinals +3.5)
Tua Tagovailoa returns for Miami, and the assumption in the betting market is that the Dolphins will go from being a bad football team to the above-average one they were rated as, ahead of their Week 2 Thursday-nighter with the Bills.
Here are my issues with that:
The assumption that Tagovailoa will play well, re-joining the action in midseason:
When last we saw Tagovailoa, he was in the midst of a 3-interception game, and had a QB rating of 27.7. His trio of replacements had ratings of 21.4 (Tyler Huntley), 22.7 (Tim Boyle), and 3.7 (Skylar Thompson).
He’s been OK, at best, in previous returns from concussion:
2022 (vs. PIT): 60% completions, 7.5 YPA, TD, 47.7 QBR
2021 (vs. JAX): 70% completions, 7.0 YPA, 2 TD, INT, 70.5 QBR
*Overall average in 2023: 69.3%, 8.3 YPA, 61.5 QBR
We’ve seen what the Dolphins look like if he should get hurt again, or should he be ruled out before the game.
The Dolphins don’t have the same talent in the trenches on both sides of the ball that they have in years’ past:
No offensive lineman in the top-20 in pass-rush win rate
No edge-rushers in the top-20 in pass-rush win rate
It’s entirely possible that Tua’s absence has provided an excuse, masking that Mike McDaniel’s team isn’t very good. The defense is 25th in FTN’s DVOA, and the offense hasn’t been able to open holes for the run game even before Tagovailoa’s absence (21 carries for 59 yards vs. Jacksonville).
With a strong chance that things aren’t perfect in Miami, I want to be fading someone I think isn’t a very good coach in metaphorically foul-weather conditions.
Browns (+350) over Ravens
(ATS bet: Browns +9)
With more choices for a big-time upset than there have been over the first seven weeks of the season, I guess that’s something. It does mean, we’ll have to get grimy.
For the other underdogs of more than a touchdown (Titans, Patriots, Raiders, Panthers), something about them has been removed or gotten worse and/or they’re facing a team that has already shown they can handle them with ease.
The thing that has made betting on the Browns feel utterly perverted - ahem… Deshaun Watson - has been removed from the equation. With Cleveland’s Achilles heel no longer a barrier to backing them, what is the value of the Browns with Jameis Winston at the helm?
We know that Cleveland went into last week with our estimated market rating (EMR) of 29/100, tied for 4th-lowest in the NFL.
When this line re-opened on Sunday night, the Browns were +10, so we’ve seen some interest in Cleveland, but their EMR is still in the low-30s. Early in the season, when Nick Chubb was still out and the Browns’ offensive line was without their starting offensive tackles, Cleveland was considered an average (50/100) NFL team. With Winston, can they get back to just “decent?”
Obviously, merely average wouldn’t make the Browns better than the Ravens, but it would give them a chance in a matchup where Cleveland’s had success in the past.
Last year, the Ravens won easily in Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s first NFL start, where he was called upon last-minute in just one of the many chapters of the Watson saga. By comparison, the Ravens were -2.5 before that road game, and it was the first time in years that the Browns weren’t a thorn in Baltimore’s side.
In more evenly-matched games, Browns’ defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz has been able to at least bother Lamar Jackson. On a short week for Baltimore and with a potential boost in energy from Winston on the offensive side, there’s value on the underdog against the spread. Enough to include them in this bet as well.
Saints (+275) over Chargers
(ATS bet: Saints +7.5)
If you just read my list of “other underdogs of more than a touchdown” and thought, “He didn’t include the Saints!”, well, here we are.
Last week, the betting market HATED the Saints’ mathematical formula of: Decimated Roster x Short Week. Basically calling New Orleans preseason-adjacent roster the worst team in the league for the Thursday night beatdown at the hands of the Broncos.
This week, not only are the Saints not on a short week, they’re the far more rested group with the Chargers playing a late road game on Monday night.
As for the New Orleans roster, while Derek Carr is most likely a week away (imagine getting this moneyline if he played!?!), the Saints should have Chris Olave and potentially Taysom Hill back to provide more weapons for whomever does start at quarterback (Jake Haener, anyone?). More importantly, reinforcements appear to be coming on the offensive line with Cesar Ruiz also back at practice.
Speaking of offensive, the Saints’ defense has been abhorrent in the three games since Pete Werner hurt his hamstring. New Orleans’ key piece in the middle of their defense also returned to practice on Wednesday. Marshon Lattimore was there too, after leaving the Broncos’ game.
It looks to be decidedly NOT a preseason roster for this Sunday in L.A.
Meanwhile, the Chargers’ offense isn’t exactly feared throughout the NFL. With the fewest points (5.7 per game) scored in second halves this season, the Bolts are vulnerable to get beat by lesser-talented teams. If this version of the Saints can even be considered that.
Cowboys (+175) over 49ers
(ATS bet: Cowboys +4.5)
Call this a challenge to the Cowboys - a team whose rating has plummeted this season.
With a rest-and-health advantage that will never get better than this, Dallas should be fully motivated and prepared after the repeated embarrassment of getting blown out in their home games, and getting annihilated in this exact primetime matchup last year.
The injuries to key players on the 49ers’ offense continue to pile up as Brandon Aiyuk joins Christian McCaffrey on the sidelines, Deebo Samuel is fresh out of the hospital with pneumonia (?!?), with George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and Jordan Mason banged up. Relatedly, Brock Purdy’s early-career penchant for turnover-worthy throws are now regressing into actual turnovers.
Last year, the Cowboys’ market rating range varied from 60 to 75, on the way to a division title. This year? Their average level of play is, well, average.
Asking any team to be a valuable bet means you’re projecting them to play above their mean. With such a low bar set for Dallas, asking them to play at the high-end of their range this year, is just asking them to play like an ‘OK’ version of last year’s team. With so much time to heal and lock-in, we’ll bet the Cowboys can do that here.
If they can, they should be able to beat a team who should be looking more forward than most to next week’s bye.
How the odds look this week:
