The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 16

Primetime pups, home ‘dogs, and riding with Rudolph in the holiday season

Dec 19, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em?

Ok, maybe that axiom isn’t perfect, but after ANOTHER week where no true underdogs were able to pull off an upset, we have a choice.

We can pray for a selection of the worst teams in the league - the Browns, Giants, Patriots, and Saints - to execute a stunner, or we can get even more active in the mini-upset market.

It’s worth remembering that when three +130 underdogs win amidst a 5-team round-robin, all we get is our money back. Using such short moneylines isn’t really the point of taking 1.1 units and hoping for a weekend of chaos. But, if the bottom of the NFL is going to be so pathetically uncompetitive, what are we supposed to do but acquiesce somewhat?

Don’t worry. We’ve got something of a stunner on our card - given the losing streak of our hopeful winner - but if a 6.5-point underdog is so unlikely to win, the line would be higher. Ideally, we might see that surprise, lumped in with a group of shorter plus-moneylines assigned to teams that haven’t given up just yet.

The RUMP Week 15 answer-key:

Was there a path to RUMP victory last week? 
Each week we reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.

Rams +130
Cowboys +120
Buccaneers +140
Bills +125

With such short underdogs being the only ones to cash, you needed to hit all four for your bet to be profitable. The irony of the alleged parity in the NFL, is that there are a ton of field-goal underdogs, but so few upsets.

For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket here. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team moneyline parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team moneyline parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than even money. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!

Who to play

As always, these are five underdogs we like against the spread. Based on a pet peeve - our underdogs performing so well they win outright, we use their moneylines to make up an extra bet, hoping the five ATS games will more than make up for losing the RUMP if three or more fall short of victory.

Broncos (+130) over Chargers

(ATS bet: Broncos +3, -120 at Pinnacle/ESPNbet)

As is the case when the Thursday Nighter kicks off the RUMP, we’ve already dug into this game as part of a primetime preview.

The short version is that one team might be really good - capable of playing all 60 minutes, while the other’s been prone to multi-quarter lapses and lacks an explosive capability on both offense and defense that the other possesses.

If the betting market has some questions about the Broncos as, at the very least, a quality team, it may be because of the very public defensive lapses from a Monday Night Football game with the Browns. However, those could be attributed to a hole in the Broncos’ secondary created by an injury to defensive back Riley Moss.

Journeyman corner Levi Wallace filled in, but got burned regularly. After the bye week, Wallace was not returned to the lineup. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph cleaned up the issue, and the Broncos didn’t give up much anything explosive.

Bears (+240) over Lions

(ATS bet: Bears +6.5, -106 at FanDuel)

It’s easy to be scarred by the six-to-eight week run where surprising underdog wins have been almost impossible to come by. So, after watching the Bears continue to look hapless offensively Monday night, it’s understandable why you’d reject this idea wholeheartedly.

The Vikings’ defense is not the same as the current edition of the Lions’ D. Minnesota did their usual thing - crafting complex fronts and blitzes designed to overwhelm Caleb Williams and a mediocre offensive line. Meanwhile, the injury-ravaged Lions’ defense is just trying to hang on, to the point where their own head coach is admitting that he’s trying to keep them off the field by resorting to a mid-game onside kick against the Bills (not to mention the fourth-down gambles against the Packers).

The Bears ran the ball well against the Vikings but flunked out on a pair of 4th-and-1s when D’Andre Swift was stuffed short, proving Chicago missed Roschon Johnson (concussion), who had taken over the short-yardage role. Johnson was listed as a full participant in Tuesday’s practice estimation, which bodes well for his return in a game where the Bears will want to keep the Lions’ defense on the field for as long as possible.

The Lions’ offense heads outdoors for the second time this season. In Green Bay, they outplayed the Packers in grim, rainy conditions thanks to a pick-6 and a run game that wore down Green Bay with 28 carries for 138 yards. However, Jared Goff - historically a concern when playing outdoors in conditions - only had 145 passing yards, so he wasn’t required to put the Lions on his back.

With the current state of the Detroit defense and David Montgomery’s injury putting more on the shoulders of Jahmyr Gibbs, Goff’s going to have to produce on a freezing cold day in Chicago - a situation that gives the Bears a better chance at the upset that they flirted with on Thanksgiving.

Jets (+145) over Rams

(ATS bet: Jets +3.5, -115 at BetMGM, Pinnacle, BetRivers)

The Florida warmth revived 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers for his best two games of the season. On the surface, as the Jets return to the cold of New Jersey in mid-December, we should be looking to fade New York’s veterans. However, an L.A.-based team with a 36-year-old quarterback (who might be older in QB years) is coming to town with their highest estimated market rating of the season - a standard trigger to fade the Rams.

L.A. kept hopes alive last Thursday night, with a game plan of boring everyone to tears. Sean McVay took the ball out of the hands of Matthew Stafford, running it on repeat with Kyren Williams, throwing just enough of a wrench in the 49ers’ defensive plans (and their probable expectation of needing to shut down the Rams’ passing game).

If they try that approach against the Jets, New York (6th in the NFL in opponent yards per carry) is at least capable of minimizing an opponent’s run game, and would invite handoffs to Williams. Meanwhile, the length of Sauce Gardner could provide a rare disturbance for Puka Nacua when they’re lined up opposite one another.

It’s possible that it’s not just the fair weather that’s revived Rodgers’ connection with Davante Adams and they can keep their success going against one of the worst pass defenses in the league.

We’ve seen the Rams come cross-country to barely edge the Patriots, and with games against the Cardinals and Seahawks at home still to come, this is actually one the Rams could drop and it wouldn’t be the end of the world, since winning the last two gives them the NFC West anyway.

Titans (+165) over Colts

(ATS bet: Titans +3.5, -105 at FanDuel)

It’s a privilege to start a game as an NFL quarterback, but if your first starts on a new team are on the road against the Lions and Bills this season? That’s some bad luck.

On a bad football team, Mason Rudolph was never going to be put in a position to succeed in those two games. In this third start, the Titans managed one of their three wins this season. With Will Levis healthy enough to get back in, the Titans were compelled to put their young project back in, but eventually, you have to read the room. So, after three interceptions and a fumble against the Bengals, Brian Callahan can’t look the rest of his team in the eye while continuing to keep playing Levis.

Callahan’s in “defend the team” aggressively mode.

As a result, with Rudolph taking on Anthony Richardson, we’ve got an entirely new quarterback matchup from the first meeting between the Titans and Colts. Joe Flacco - the better option in the passing game - was held to 189 yards by the Titans’ defense, but Indianapolis won because Levis had 95. It’s one of many examples where Tennessee was held back because of the play of the quarterback. Even Levis’s lone win this season was almost derailed by a late pick-6 in Houston.

The Colts are 2-5 in their last seven games, and their two 1-point wins over the Jets and Patriots aren’t exactly striking fear in any hearts looking to fade them as a favorite.

Cowboys (+165) over Buccaneers

(ATS bet: Cowboys +4, -115 at Bet365)

The Buccaneers have won four straight while taking over the lead in the NFC South, and the betting market is feeling everything about that, as their rating is a season-high 55/100.

While that’s not exactly gangbusters (whatever that colloquialism actually means), that noise you hear is our alarm for when a team hits a perception level that they hadn’t been previously awarded. It’s not automatic that we hit the bet-against button, but we do need to dig into the road to this newfound respect for Tampa Bay.

That 4-game winning streak? Giants, Panthers (escaped in overtime), Raiders (assisted by Aidan O’Connell’s injury), and last week’s peak-performance against the Chargers. That run is not quite the addition to the resume that definitively warrants being put on the same level of the Texans and Steelers. However, the valuation in this game is more about the Cowboys and their own 4-game stretch.

After Dak Prescott’s injury, an already messed-up Cowboys’ season got launched into the sun (that shines in from the west end of AT&T Stadium), and their market rating hit rock-bottom when they not-so-conveniently had to face the Eagles and Texans - two defenses that were going to be a problem for an offense in transition.

Since then though, against non-division leaders, the Cowboys are one inexperienced-special-teamer-muffing-a-deflected-punt (there was a lot going on) away from their own 4-game winning streak. Sure, that run includes the Giants and Panthers too, but, as 4-point underdogs at home, the Cowboys aren’t being asked to be play like an average team, or even close to it.

Not every team that’s gone to Carolina has thoroughly dominated the Panthers, especially lately, including the Buccaneers, so the Cowboys should get a little more credit for doing far more than what was expected of them last week. Which is something they’ve been making a habit of lately. Just as much as the Bucs.