The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 9

The AFC West may see a pair of big surprises, and short ‘dogs with value

Oct 31, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

It felt like we might have had something, didn’t it?

It started nicely with getting the Rams in as a short underdog on Thursday, but it really hit different when the Cardinals’ game-winning field goal went through the uprights around the same time the Browns held off the Ravens’ final drive.

Then, the Saints let us down in what felt like a winnable game in L.A., unable to get anything out of two young quarterbacks. On Sunday night, the Cowboys took a 10-3 lead and then took a couple quarters off before teasing their backers with their typical too-little-too-late charge.

If we have a regret on a winning bet, it’s that we missed out on the Patriots’ upset, knowing the Jets shouldn’t be favored by that much on the road against anyone.

The RUMP Week 8 answer-key:

Was there a path to RUMP victory last week? 
Each week we reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.

Rams +130
Eagles +130
Cardinals +160
Patriots +270
Browns +350

Net win: +175

This is a fun bet because there are so many ways to look at it beyond just hoping to hit all five.

At its core, last week played out how we hope each week, where three or more underdogs cover the spread on individual bets, and maybe three of them win outright. If one big underdog pulls off a true upset, the bet pays out a little more.

You might argue that we could have just bet the Browns and cashed the +350 on the moneyline, but we “sacrifice” that bigger net payout on the chances a fourth (or fifth) cashes for a huge payout.

For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket here. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team moneyline parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team moneyline parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than even money. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!

Who to play

As always, these are five underdogs we like against the spread. Based on a pet peeve - our underdogs performing so well they win outright, we use their moneylines to make up an extra bet, hoping the five ATS games will more than make up for losing the RUMP if three or more fall short of victory.

Raiders (+275) over Bengals

(ATS bet: Raiders +7.5, -115 at FanDuel)

No, the Raiders are not good. They have a glaring weakness that makes their chances to win games look like the final block in a game of Jenga - their run defense. Early in the season, they were gashed by the Chargers, Ravens, Panthers, Steelers, and Broncos. Jerome Ford’s best game of the season (10 carries, 58 yards) was in Las Vegas.

But you’re allowed to improve on an weakness. The Raiders held up decently against Kyren Williams, and then the Chiefs - struggling with their run game - weren’t able to generate much in a game that was a 4-point game heading into the fourth quarter. The Bengals are 26th in rush yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, the Raiders’ pass defense has actually been pretty good this season - ninth in opposing yards per pass attempt.

The case against the Bengals, if you need more than the simple fact they’re 3-5 and might be worse than their rating in the betting market, is that their defense is actually worse in FTN’s DVOA than the Raiders. A win over Las Vegas might fall into the same category as uninspiring Bengals’ victories over the Panthers, Browns, and Giants, but in what is quickly becoming a lost season, if they were the next victim to a random Gardner Minshew performance against a bad defense, would you be shocked?

Patriots (+150) over Titans

(ATS bet: Patriots +3.5, -112 at DraftKings)

It would be preferred if Drake Maye was able to go on Sunday, but he has to pass concussion protocol first. However, if the Titans are going to be favored by any significant amount, we should be fading that regardless of the opposing QB.

It’s not that the Titans’ metrics are all that bad. After all, they out-gained the Lions 416-225. They lost 52-14. They had the same number of first downs as the Bills. Lost 30-14. But the point is that the Titans find a way to lose games in the margins, suggesting that their failures are not all just because of Will Levis’s mistakes. By the way, he might be back this week, capable of turning a game on its head with a bad decision at any time.

The Patriots just won a “boxscore fraud” type of game on Sunday. If the door is left open, even the most overmatched team talent-wise, can win a game late. Even with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, New England can do enough to win at Tennessee, if the Titans continue to be seemingly content to give away games.

Giants (+175) over Commanders

(ATS bet: Giants +4, DraftKings)

With an 0-4 home record, it’s easy to dismiss the Giants as “bad at home,” but their losses - Vikings, Cowboys, Bengals, Eagles - were all against teams with more talent. Losing to Dallas (with Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence) and Cincinnati (with Tee Higgins) by one-possession sounds just about as right as losing by multiple scores to Minnesota and Philadelphia, given where those four teams are this season.

The Commanders might be on the Vikings and Eagles’ level, but the market has them rated more like the Cowboys and Bengals. We’ll see how Washington matches up with Philly and Dallas, but we’ve already seen them play the Giants.

Watching that Week 2 game closely, you’d be hard-pressed to find the difference between the two teams (6.2 YPP to 6.0 YPP for Washington), in a game that was lined Commanders -2 and Washington won thanks, in part, to the Giants being sans-kicker. At Commanders -4 this week, these two teams have been adjusted six points away from each other, because Jayden Daniels has exploded in wins over Cincinnati, Arizona, Cleveland, Carolina, and then last week’s Hail Mary win over Chicago.

The Giants could have beat the Bengals, did beat Cleveland, and will beat Carolina. Instead of going to Arizona, New York’s NFC West matchup was in Seattle, where they won. Instead of getting the Bears from the NFC North, the Giants opened the season with the Vikings.

It’s not that the Giants are better than the Commanders, but it’s entirely possible that the schedule, and a few plays going in different directions for both teams, has made the gap look bigger than the perception this point spread (and coinciding moneyline) suggests.

Packers (+150) over Lions

(ATS bet: Packers +3.5, -112 at DraftKings)

This might be a time-sensitive play, but it doesn’t look like we’ll know whether Jordan Love is good to go right up until Sunday, as this line is more indicative of him missing out. This isn’t a statement on Love’s manhood, but his groin is a soft tissue injury that needs daily treatment for the Packers to be comfortable with playing, knowing they have their bye week coming up next. If Love can play, the Packers’ rating should revert to a level (62/100) that would make this spread at least a pick’em.

That scenario would provide obvious value, but let’s say Malik Willis is tabbed to start. Admittedly, before the previous two games Willis started, Green Bay’s rating was dropped further than it sits now. We know from tracking market ratings all season, that the Packers were considered a 29/100 heading into Week 2 when very little was expected from Willis. This line puts them at 47/100. That might seem like a big jump, but the Packers have won three games now with Willis in charge.

The Lions’ are at the peak of their rating, but they won big last week despite not getting anything out of their passing game. This game marks Jared Goff’s first of the season outdoors. One of the reasons many liked Detroit before the season, was because of how rarely the Lions were set to play outside. Goff’s career QB rating is 100 in a dome, versus 89.5 outdoors.

That may be an antiquated stat considering where the Lions are now, but given how high Detroit’s rating has gotten, they’re being asked to play at their peak, still without Jameson Williams and Aidan Hutchinson. The Packers are less likely than the Titans to get beat in the creative ways Tennessee did last week.

Buccaneers (+350) over Chiefs

(ATS bet: Buccaneers +9)

We’ll dig into this game further on Monday, but of all the games with big point spreads, this one is built on the flimsiest case.

The argument for the Chiefs is obvious - they literally haven’t lost a game yet this season. Last we saw K.C. in primetime, they were beating the Saints comfortably - a win that’s starting to look less impressive as the season goes on, regardless of Derek Carr’s availability.

The Chiefs have just one other win by more than one possession (taking advantage of a short-handed 49ers’ team) and are outside the top-10 in yards per play and yards per game.

Where value is created though, lies in how the market feels about the Buccaneers. Two Mondays ago, the market liked Tampa enough to have them rated as an above-average team. They led the Ravens in the first half, only to see Mike Evans go out with a hamstring injury. An offense primed to get the ball to Evans slowed, Baltimore picked up their pace, and Chris Godwin was lost for the season. As a result, the market dropped Tampa’s rating considerably before last week’s loss to the Falcons.

That game didn’t help perceptions, as Atlanta jumped out to a lead and held on. However, if the Bucs’ downgrade is because of the offensive injuries, it’s worth noting that Tampa still managed 330 yards passing without Evans and Godwin on a short week.

Now that the younger, less-experienced pass-catchers have had a full game and eight more days to understand their role, along with a trio of good options out of the backfield, I expect the Bucs to play closer to their season-long rating - one that would have made this line under a touchdown instead of over it. While winning outright is unlikely, a moneyline this big is too juicy to pass up.