The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 10

Thursday night surprise, Rush’ing to the bet the ‘Boys, and Chiefs lose THIS time?

Nov 07, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

I’ll just say it - I’m glad Todd Bowles didn’t go for two.

Was it absolutely the right call to do so? Yeah, of course it was. But had the Buccaneers gone for it, got it, and won, I would have been low-key annoyed that it didn’t end up being a great moment for our RUMP betting community.

We had the Bucs to beat the Chiefs as a theoretical finishing move to last week’s Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay, except it was derailed by the whole “underdogs don’t actually win anymore” thing going in the NFL for three of the last four weeks.

The RUMP Week 9 answer-key:

Was there a path to RUMP victory last week? 
Each week we reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.

Nope.

Naturally, the Panthers - of all teams - were the lone underdog winner last week. Sure.

For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket here. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team moneyline parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team moneyline parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than even money. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!

Who to play

As always, these are five underdogs we like against the spread. Based on a pet peeve - our underdogs performing so well they win outright, we use their moneylines to make up an extra bet, hoping the five ATS games will more than make up for losing the RUMP if three or more fall short of victory.

Bengals (+225) over Ravens

(ATS bet: Bengals +6, Bet365)

We dug into this matchup in the Thursday Night Football preview, and since then both Tee Higgins and Isaiah Likely have been ruled out. That’s obviously a worse result for the Bengals, but I think there’s still some value on the Bengals’ moneyline anyway.

Thursday night games often come down to discipline - who turns it over less, commits fewer penalties, and executes their offense better. With full preparation, the Ravens are the better team, with more tricks up their sleeve to gain an edge, but with a bare bones game plan, the Bengals can match up. Cinci’s run defense slows the Ravens enough to allow for Joe Burrow to be the difference-maker.

Saints (+165) over Falcons

(ATS bet: Saints +4, Bet365)

The Saints hit rock-bottom last week.

Lose to the Panthers, fire the coach, trade their best defensive player, things of that nature.

Which is exactly the time we swoop in to buy low on a home underdog in a divisional matchup.

You can put this game in the age-old “New coach bump” category if you want, but it’s more about not panicking just because the Saints’ ownership did. Dennis Allen had to go eventually, because he likely makes no difference to the chances of the Saints winning, and that’s a bad sign. However, whether it’s his removal, the Saints’ losing streak, or just getting beat by the Panthers, New Orleans’ rating is at its lowest in a game started by Derek Carr.

Of course, three of the Saints’ seven straight losses came with Spencer Rattler at the helm, and last week’s mess in Carolina happened despite New Orleans dominating the boxscore:

Yards: 427-246
First downs: 25-15
Rushing yards: 197-80
Turnovers: 0-1

You should win that game, and I don’t know how the Saints didn’t, but at least they actually played well.

One of the seven losses over the last two months came at Atlanta in Week 4, when the Falcons won by two points thanks to a muffed-punt touchdown and a pick-6. Atlanta’s improved and the Saints have fallen off, but for one game, at home, between division rivals, you should get the best effort from New Orleans.

Colts (+175) over Bills

(ATS bet: Colts +4, Bet365)

We didn’t like the Colts last week, since the betting market was oversold on Indianapolis, just because Joe Flacco was starting. Now they’ve been bumped back down after getting served some humble pie by the Vikings, and with the bar lower, that’s when we buy back in.

Minnesota’s defense is built to confuse, even a veteran like Flacco. This week, the Colts come home and get the Bills - who have talent, but have shown some holes when the pass-rush isn’t getting home. Buffalo couldn’t get the Dolphins off the field last week, as Tua Tagovailoa, a pocket-passing quarterback was able to slowly matriculate the ball down in time-consuming drives. Like Tua, CJ Stroud and Aaron Rodgers in recent games, Flacco can do the same.

Defensively, the Colts’ are noticeably different with DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart both in the lineup, disrupting the middle of the line of scrimmage. They’re capable of being a top-10 run defense. The Bills’ schedule has been devoid of opponents’ with a good run ‘D’, with the notable exception of the Ravens - a matchup where Buffalo didn’t have a rushing play longer than eight yards and lost 35-10. With Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper potentially out, Buffalo’s passing game may be compromised as well.

Broncos (+325) over Chiefs

(ATS bet: Broncos +8.5, FanDuel)

Let’s fill it up again!

Our “best loss” in last week’s RUMP was the coin-flip game between the Buccaneers and Chiefs, as Kansas City continued to show vulnerability against some thoroughly mediocre teams. No, they never lose, but… maybe one day?

They don’t have to travel, but the Chiefs do have a short week, and a quarterback who was hobbled late into Monday night. While it wasn’t at its best in Baltimore, the Broncos’ defense - very good this year - has given Patrick Mahomes fits recently. The Chiefs scored 19 and 9 points against Vance Joseph’s group last year, and had the offense (Russell Wilson edition) not been terrible in Kansas City, the Broncos’ would have five straight covers in this matchup.

We already know the Chiefs are a bad bet when lined over a touchdown, but last week’s loss by the Broncos (at a similar spread vs. the Ravens), was better than the scoreboard suggests. They lost first downs 25-20, yards 396-319, and ran for 122 yards to Baltimore’s 127.

The Broncos are the hunters, while the veteran Chiefs’ know this game is less than essential. If Denver can play to the high side of their range, and Kansas City doesn’t play to their mean, maybe the game comes down to a 50/50 play, which is an option the Broncos would exercise in a heartbeat.

Cowboys (+280) over Eagles

(ATS bet: Cowboys +7.5, -116 at Pinnacle)

Admit it, there would be nothing more “NFL” than Dak Prescott getting hurt and Cooper Rush taking over and now the Cowboys win a game, at home no less.

Admittedly, it’s far-fetched, but this column has never been the place for “predicting” upsets, but its more about pinpointing moneyline value for them.

Once per game, Rush could just throw the ball directly to the opponent, and it would be no different than Prescott’s eight interceptions in eight games this season. Prescott’s 6.9 yards per pass attempt, is also replicable, given he is tied with luminaries like Justin Fields and Gardner Minshew in that category as well.

The last time Rush started for a stretch, he won four straight games in 2022 with an average of 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Cowboys were better then, but with a point spread this high, and a moneyline this long, they haven’t been rated this poorly since the first game in that stretch when they were +7.5 at home against the Bengals, winning 20-17.

There’s optimism that both Micah Parsons and Deron Bland return to the defense, which would bring reinforcements against an Eagles’ offense that they’re more than a little familiar with, in a game Dallas needs desperately to save the season.