The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 1
The Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay
Me: “Here are dozens of NFL bets in a variety of markets.”
You: “Cool, but like, when’s the RUMP coming?”
I guess I can’t blame THE WINDOW “Panes” for collectively making it clear that this is their favorite column - based on the too-many-to-count questions about whether it was coming with me this season (OF COURSE IT IS). After all, it is, objectively, the most fun, and that’s the spirit of sports betting we’re trying to promote.
It’s just one bet among many, and the only time each week we’re allowed to shed the rules of responsible betting to create a parlay that might just win us a bunch of money.
The popularity of this gambit is helped by the belief that it can win big. Potentially built from hitting all five underdogs the first time I published the bet.
Call that beginners’ luck, but if we’re talking about expectations, since after Week 1 of 2021, the RUMP has been tapped 19 times in 51 tries. Obviously, 37% isn’t enough to be profitable at even-money odds, but, luckily, going 3-2 here nets a profit better than that.
If our 6-to-7 winning weeks were only 3-2s, we’d likely break even or take a small loss. However, exactly twice each year we’ve had a 4-win week. Those rare occasions are how money gets made. While we spend the rest of our betting strategy trying to slowly churn out profit accumulation over a long period of time, this is the bet that jolts you to the edge of your seat each week.
For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket.
How it works
Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than break-even. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!
Who to play
Cardinals (+240) over Bills
The Bills are going through some stuff.
In this case, “stuff” is defined by a shift in offensive philosophy - from explosive down-field throws and using their quarterback as a No.1 rushing option (but with frustrating, ill-timed turnovers), to a more controlled offense built for the playoffs, with 2-tight end formations and a potential star running back.
“Stuff” is also a significant change to personnel in their secondary and the departure of Matt Milano - underneath coverage maven.
The “stuff” Arizona’s got going on is the second year of a rebuild. Which, in the NFL, is often the last year of a rebuild. It either works, or it’s time to think about another.
The Cardinals were 1-8 before Kyler Murray came back last year, and while a 3-5 finish wasn’t headline-worthy, it was clear how much better they were with him than without. They’re capable of pulling off an upset if the opponent doesn’t have their I’s dotted and T’s crossed.
Buffalo was beat by Zach Wilson (after Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles popped) in the opener last year, and were upset at home in Week 1 of 2021. The Sean McDermott era has had some slow starts to seasons, so we’ll make this our biggest upset play for the Week 1 RUMP.
Titans (+165) over Bears
You know the joke - “Why don’t they make the whole plane out of the black box?”
Week 1 in the NFL is entirely made out of high variance. Meaning that so many of the games could go in drastically different directions.
The Bears - with all their exciting adds this offseason - might be an above-average team, as their rating in the betting market suggests. They also might just be OK - an improvement on recent seasons and a step in the right direction.
The Titans aren’t all that exciting. At least that’s not their reputation. Brian Callahan’s looking to bring a pass-first offense to Nashville. It’s why Derrick Henry had to go. It’s why Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd had to come.
While the NFL is waiting to checkout the new-look Bears - creating a moneyline split that should be tighter - what they might see is a fresh vibe coming from the Titans.
Panthers (+165) over Saints
We never know how to calculate for philosophical change. In the case of backing the Panthers, it comes down to the inspirational “it can’t get any worse” concept, as they go from the catastrophe that was Frank Reich (fired after 11 games) to Dave Canales, and the hope he can turn Bryce Young into the version that won a Heisman Trophy and earned the status of No. 1 pick.
Maybe it’s just as bad for Carolina this year, but what’s the high-end possibility for the Saints?
New Orleans brings back largely the same team, that, in their two games against the woeful version of Carolina last year, out-gained the Panthers 548 to 542.
The Panthers come with high-variance possibilities, but the odds assume they’re pretty close to the team that was +5.5 the last time they visited New Orleans, when they were 1-12 in December of 2023.
Jaguars (+150) over Dolphins
It wasn’t that long ago that conversations were being had about the Jaguars’ chances to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year. Then Trevor Lawrence got hurt.
Stylistically, the Jaguars are going to throw it even more this year, and we know the Dolphins are up for the same type of 36-34 game they opened the 2023 season with against the Chargers.
That game-script means a game may hinge on a variety of explosive plays - on offense, but also on defense - versus converting a reliable accumulation of yardage into points. Blame it on the health of Miami’s defense, but the Jaguars have the unit more capable of stopping the opposing offense and/or creating a high-variance play like a critical sack or an interception.
Commanders (+150) over Buccaneers
Last year, on the Clutch Picks Podcast, I would occasionally talk about the Commanders being a possible divisional contender if they played in the NFC South. That’s somewhat of a back-handed compliment, since it’s more about the 2-time division winning Buccaneers holding a 17-17 record the last two years, with six games on the schedule against the recent quarterbacks of the Saints, Falcons. and Panthers. Remove the 8-4 divisional record, and the Bucs are 9-13 against the rest of the league. In one of those seasons, they had Tom Brady at quarterback, and now they’re without the coach who got much of the credit for Baker Mayfield’s resurgence.
Meanwhile, the Commanders fall into the category we’ve referenced above: High-variance. We don’t know what we’re going to get from Jayden Daniels, or from Dan Quinn’s defense. Washington’s not without hype, but the difference between theirs and Chicago’s is that the Bears are the favorite in their game, while the Commanders are underdogs.
Like everything else about Tampa Bay, their record at home has been mediocre (.500) the last two years. So, I’m not afraid of a late-game push spurred on by a rowdy crowd causing trouble for a rookie quarterback, the same way I might be if Daniels was making his debut in Seattle.
How the odds look this week:
Note: PLEASE find a sportsbook that offers an early payout for when a football team takes a 17-point lead. The last thing you want to have happen is to watch an underdog take a big early lead only to have it, and your potential big win, evaporate.