TNF: Best bets for 49ers-Seahawks
Looking at usage and production trends in a battle for the early lead in the NFC West
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Don’t look now, but Thursday Night Football has turned into divisional-showdown night in the NFL.
The Seahawks were the third-choice in the NFC West before the season, so for those of us with long-shot tickets on Seattle to take the division, this is a big game.
Much of the premise for thinking the Hawks had a shot to have a big season was because of the high-variance nature of their expectations with a handful of quality weapons around Geno Smith, but a shaky offensive line in front him. Pair that with a new head coach - potential defensive guru - Mike Macdonald, and you have a team that could be really good or fall flat. At +750 that’s a worthwhile gamble.
Through five games, both the Seahawks and (surprisingly) the 49ers, have had wild swings, hitting highs and lows, often within the same game.
49ers @ Seahawks (+3.5, 47.5)
Spoiler alert: It would be really odd if I were willing to give the points with the 49ers, given our preseason position that Seattle might be capable of competing for the division lead.
San Francisco’s as deadly as ever, but there’s a reliance on the big play that’s concerning. The 49ers got a blocked-punt touchdown return and a Nick Bosa interception with a 40-yard return setting up a field goal, that amounted to a swing of 16 total points, and they still lost to the Cardinals on Sunday.
Enthusiasm for the Seahawks has been tempered by two straight losses and they’re finishing a tough stretch of three games in 11 days. Which likely accounts for a point spread that’s up over a field goal.
Based on the Week 5 market report, the line should be under three points, but whether it’s due to the losses or the density of the schedule, the Seahawks are expected to perform at the low-end of their range.
Two weeks ago in Detroit, the market was selling the Seahawks because of their injury issues on defense. Leonard Williams and Jerome Baker returned last week, and Boye Mafe is expected to be active this Thursday. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ are playing their third game in 12 days, and have their own list of defenders who are questionable.
In Brock Purdy’s two starts in Seattle, the 49ers have won despite the quarterback having one of his most inefficient games of each season. Christian McCaffrey had 138 total yards in 2022 and 139 in 2023. Obviously, McCaffrey won’t be on the field this week.
Both teams are desperate, knowing the importance of this game, but the difference-maker for me is Macdonald, who had Purdy rattled in San Francisco last year to the tune of four interceptions. Good defensive coordinators/play-callers like Brian Flores and Jonathan Gannon have been able to trouble Purdy this season, and without the safety valve of McCaffrey, the offense has dipped to 10th in DVOA after being 3rd last year.
With the expectation of a tough battle for the outright lead in the division, I’ve backed the home underdogs, taking the points and hoping they increase the value of preseason positions with an outright win.
Pick: Seahawks (+3.5)
Brock Purdy: Under 253.5 passing yards (-113, FanDuel)
Purdy’s averaged 274.8 yards per game this season, going over this total in three of five games, but he benefited from a trailing game state to get 36 attempts against the Vikings, who refused to let anything get deep on them. Meanwhile, the Patriots (26th) and the Rams (last) are among the worst in opponent’s yards per pass attempt in the NFL. The Seahawks are 8th.
Seattle hasn’t faced a top pass offense, so their numbers are helped by the opponent, but Purdy’s thrown for 209 yards (on 30 attempts) and 217 yards (on 26 attempts) in two games in Seattle. Against Macdonald’s Ravens’ last year, Purdy needed 32 attempts to get to 255 yards.
As the favorite, it’s less likely they’ll be trailing by a significant margin, but extending drives with McCaffrey isn’t on the menu either. Jordan Mason has been an effective runner, and the Seahawks’ have been vulnerable to the run thanks to the injuries to their front-seven (118 yards allowed to the Lions, 129 to the Giants). On a short week and on the road, look for a conservative game plan from San Francisco.
Brandon Aiyuk: Under 4.5 receptions (+103, Pinnacle)
Last week was the first sign of a breakout from an early-season slump for Brandon Aiyuk, but facing a cornerback group of Sean Murphy-Bunting, Starling Thomas, and rookie Max Melton, is not the same as the Seahawks’ combo of Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen. Aiyuk’s had three receptions or fewer in his last three games in Seattle, and last week was just the second time that he’s topped this number.
Noah Fant: Over 21.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
The Seahawks have shuffled their pass-catcher usage around since the start of a season with a new offensive coordinator, but they seem to have settled in to using more 13-personnel with Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf. They’ve shifted away from using Jake Bobo (2 snaps last week) and A.J. Barner (15 snaps), as Noah Fant has proven a reliable target with all the attention on the receivers.
Fant’s caught 11 straight targets over the last three games, for no fewer than 24 yards in each game, but his total might be lower for fear of facing a 49ers’ team that’s been good against the tight end, but they’ve faced mid-tier tight ends like Tyler Conklin, Hunter Henry, and Tre McBride. Fant might be merely on their same level, but there are too many other options to fear, to worry about getting beat by Fant.
Kenneth Walker: Under 87.5 rushing + receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)
Speaking of other Seahawks’ weapons, their starting tailback was shutdown by the Giants on the ground, but he was a factor in the passing game on Sunday. Fred Warner should be alerted to Walker’s presence out of the backfield, and the 49ers haven’t allowed more than 4.0 yards per carry to Seattle tailbacks in their five meetings over the last two seasons. Walker’s still only playing two-thirds of the snaps, since returning from injury.
George Kittle: Anytime touchdown (+183, Pinnacle)
Against the Cardinals, nursing a rib injury, George Kittle continued a streak of three straight games with a touchdown. Some of his biggest games have come against Seattle, in keeping with the fact that 18 of Kittle’s 40 career touchdowns have come in 37 games against NFC West foes.
With Aiyuk potentially locked up by Seahawks’ corners, and Deebo Samuel looking not fully healthy, Kittle should be lined closer to 50/50 on whether he’ll score. Anything better than +150 is worth a bet.
DK Metcalf: Anytime touchdown (+150, Bet365)
Metcalf scored in 6-of-16 (37.5%) Seahawks’ games last year, in three of the last seven games against the 49ers (42.8%), and he was an overturned touchdown in Detroit away from scoring in three of the five games (60%) played this season. Odds of +150 suggests that Metcalf is 40% likely to score, but new Seahawks’ offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has shown an interest in having Geno Smith look for Metcalf deep, adding to the mismatch he is for the 49ers, who have been relying on a career backup corner in Isaac Yiadom and have a questionable tag on Charvarius Ward for Thursday. Look for Metcalf to get more than one target in the red zone, making him worth a bet at +150.