TNF: Best bets for Bengals-Ravens
Cinci stays close on the arm of Joe Burrow
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
At first glance, this game doesn’t feel quite as good as it should for a game between the two preseason AFC North favorites in prime time. That’s reflected in a point spread that rightly suggests that the Ravens are a better team, with a better resume than the Bengals.
A reminder is needed that Baltimore - the NFL’s top-rated team in betting markets - have somehow lost three games this season, and aren’t technically in first place in the division at the midway point. Meanwhile, the Bengals, for all their faults and early-season struggles, are a win away from .500, and if that victory comes this Thursday, it would give Cincinnati a split and put them a game back of the Ravens with almost eight games left to play.
While it doesn’t have the cache of a duel between 7-2 teams battling for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, a lot of previous work can be undone - both good and bad, with a Cincinnati victory. That would make the rest of the season even more intriguing, but can the Bengals compete in Baltimore?
Bengals @ Ravens (-6, 52.5)
The Bengals did more than compete the first time around.
You likely recall three things from their Week 5 matchup against the Ravens:
Cincinnati taking a 10-point lead with nine minutes left in the fourth quarter
The Bengals had a 3-point lead with the ball, 1st-and-10, at the Ravens’ 28-yard line
Zac Taylor refusing to call a pass play for Joe Burrow after getting the ball, 1st-and-10 at the Ravens’ 38-yard line in overtime, needing just a field goal to win
ESPN’s win probability metrics put the Bengals’ chances of winning at anywhere from 78% to 91% in those three instances. They lost.
Beyond being in solid position to win, the Bengals showed they can take advantage of the few flaws the Ravens have, as Burrow went 30/39 for 392 yards and five touchdowns. Only the Panthers, Jaguars, Rams, and Cowboys have allowed more yards per pass attempt than the Ravens. A number of 7.4 YPA that was improved by facing Bo Nix last week.
The Bengals also had rare success in slowing Derrick Henry. One of the other indelible memories from the first matchup is a 51-yard, game-clinching run in overtime, but had that game ended on an Evan McPherson field goal, or in regulation, we’d be able to cite the Bengals holding Henry to just 41 yards on 14 carries as reason to like them.
That would be in keeping with a run ‘D’ that’s allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt. More importantly, with their defensive line rotation of BJ Hill, Sheldon Rankins, and rookie Kris Jenkins Jr healthy since Week 6, the Bengals have allowed 3.7 yards per carry.
There’s concern about Tee Higgins being unable to play, but had Cincinnati closed out the first game, both teams might be 5-4, and their rating in the market might produce a tighter point spread, befitting the preseason evaluation that made them co-favorites for a division title.
The Bengals were slow to get rolling, while even the Ravens’ losses have seemed more excusable, but with matchup reasons as to why Cincinnati should be able to go score-for-score with Baltimore, taking the points is the least we can do.
Pick: Bengals (+6)
Joe Burrow: Over 24.5 completions (-115 at Bet365)
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 19 receptions and 276 yards and four touchdowns in Week 5. If the Ravens’ could slow down the Bengals’ star receivers, they would have.
Baltimore would likely assert that they’re content with the secondary making a big, game-changing play - the Marlon Humphrey interception to give the Ravens the ball back down three points late in regulation.
Even if Higgins (quadriceps) is unable to play, Burrow should be willing to keep the same game plan, throwing constantly.
Chase Brown: Over 21.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Those passes may go to Ja’Marr Chase, but they’re just as likely to go elsewhere, including the Bengals’ extensive group of tight ends. Last week though, Chase Brown caught all five of the targets that came his way, for 37 yards. All were season-highs.
Why?
Brown had played tug-of-war for tailback snaps with Zack Moss, until Moss missed last week and Brown went from a maximum of 33 snaps to 59.
Here are their season-long receiving stats prior to Week 9:
Moss: 23 receptions, 27 targets, 187 yards
Brown: 16 receptions, 21 targets, 61 yards
Brown’s receiving yardage total was 19.5 going into last week, so while that number has gone up, it doesn’t fully account for Brown taking over the lion’s share of the duties.
Derrick Henry: Under 91.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
As much as the Bengals took advantage of the Ravens’ pass defense in the first matchup, Baltimore wasn’t shy about throwing it either. Lamar Jackson had 42 pass attempts, and racked up 348 yards.
Whether it’s due to a trailing game script, or knowing the Bengals’ run defense is among the best in the NFL, Henry’s damage may be relatively minimal, knowing that something like an 80-yard outing on a short week is still pretty good, but wouldn’t be enough to go over this total.
Mark Andrews: Anytime touchdown (+220, Bet365)
The services of Mark Andrews were largely unnecessary last week, as the Ravens beat the Broncos easily, and the veteran tight end played less than 50% of the snaps for the third time this season. The other two times? Blowout win over the Cowboys, and blowout win over the Bills.
When they’re in a heated battle, Andrews is still Jackson’s go-to, especially near the end zone, as evidenced by him having four touchdown catches in the three previous, relatively close games against the Commanders, Buccaneers, and Browns.
Khalil Herbert: Anytime touchdown (+550, FanDuel)
Tanner Hudson: Anytime touchdown (+1200, Bet365)
Ja’Marr Chase probably scores. So does Chase Brown. But at worse than even-odds for an anytime touchdown, neither is worth a bet. So, let’s split a unit on a pair of Bengals’ long shots instead.
We mentioned Chase Brown’s usage without Moss in the way, but the Bengals probably don’t want to have Brown out there for 80% of the snaps. They also don’t seem excited about their depth at the position, or they wouldn’t have traded for Khalil Herbert, and they didn’t trade for him not to use him. At +550 to score, let’s speculate that he’s involved in a play in the general vicinity of the goal line.
Meanwhile, the Bengals’ tight end usage is all over the map:
Drew Sample going from 18 snaps to 56 is wild. Mike Gesicki playing no more than 31 snaps in any game is surprising, since he seems to be targeted on every third play. Rookie Erick All got hurt last week, so there’s some room for more action at the position, and it seems like Tanner Hudson (working back from injury) might be the player to step in.
Hudson missed time early last season as well, but when he was reinserted into the lineup on November 5th, he started a streak of seven straight games with either five targets, 35 yards, or a touchdown. Burrow trusts him, and may be just as likely to look his way in the end zone as the other two healthy options with shorter odds to score.