TNF: Best bets for Broncos-Chargers
Denver puts the final touch on a mile-high season
This FEELS like it should be a big game, but the Chargers and Broncos reside in this weird space where they’re two games ahead of any chaser in the AFC Wild Card race, while the Chiefs have already clinched the AFC West.
Given many of the alternative primetime offerings at this point in the season, we’ll happily take a game between two good teams at full health, even if the stakes may just amount to mere jostling for playoff seeding.
Broncos @ Chargers (-2.5, 42)
Don’t tell the Chargers this game is just for seeding. At 8-6, they can’t allow themselves to think that way, as they’re more vulnerable to getting caught by the group of 6-8 teams (even with eminently winnable games with the Patriots and Raiders on deck). However, if it were so easy to flip that switch, L.A. would have done so already.
Looking back, edging the Bengals in Week 11 likely paved the Chargers’ road to the playoffs, but since halftime of that game (where they were outscored 21-10), it hasn’t been great. Losses to the Ravens, Chiefs, and Buccaneers are sprinkled round a win at Atlanta where they were out-gained 357 to 180 but were donated numerous points by Kirk Cousins. With functional quarterback play for the Falcons, the Thursday-nighter could be a REALLY big deal for Jim Harbaugh.
More importantly, the Chargers’ perception in the market might be considerably different. Instead, they’re still considered an above-average team with an estimated market rating of 57/100.
Since an 0-2 start, the Broncos are 9-3 straight up and 10-2 against the spread, but aren’t even at their high point in the market. When they were rated up near the Chargers’, they managed to escape games against the Raiders and Browns with covers as a favorite.
Simply put, playing a good quarter or two against the Bengals, Falcons and Chiefs, were enough to keep the Chargers afloat with a couple wins, and kept the market from selling. Meanwhile, something about the Broncos has bettors slow to react.
With two teams seemingly headed in different directions since Week 6 - where the Chargers jumped to a 20-0 halftime lead but hung on to a 23-16 win - the Broncos are live to follow in the path of the Ravens and Bucs, and win in L.A.
Pick: Broncos (+3, -117 at Pinnacle/-120 at ESPNbet)
Courtland Sutton: Longest reception - Over 22.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings)
We were on Mike Evans in this same market last week, and he did it twice (though, sadly, we didn’t get paid double), adding to a long list of star receivers that have beaten the Chargers’ cornerbacks deep.
Calvin Ridley
Ja’Marr Chase
Tee Higgins
Zay Flowers
Jalen McMillan added a 26-yarder as well, joining a group of support receivers that have dinged the Chargers’ secondary lately too.
With between eight and 11 targets in the Broncos’ last seven games, there should be no shortage of looks for Sutton, and he’s got a catch of 23+ yards in five of those games.
Gus Edwards: Under 9.5 rush attempts (+110 at DraftKings)
It’s not a coincidence that the Chargers’ results have dipped after losing JK Dobbins for (hopefully) four games. Amidst a Comeback Player of the Year season, Dobbins had six carries for 40 yards against the Ravens. Since Dobbins left that game, Gus Edwards has run for 3.1 yards per carry, and it’s damning that his yardage total is just 33.5, but his attempts total is 9.5.
Last week, Edwards played just 14 snaps. Presumably because he offers little in the passing game, and the Chargers trailed in the second half, but how much do you need to see before you give more run to Kimani Vidal (35 snaps last week)?
Against one of the top run defenses in the league, it seems unlikely that the Chargers would run the ball inefficiently straight into the line with Edwards 10 times.
Kimani Vidal: Over 8.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Along the same lines as the above, Vidal’s out-snapped Edwards in each of the last two games. While neither is known for their receiving skills, only three teams have allowed more receptions to opposing running backs than the Broncos. Taking some of the starch out of the Denver pass rush is vital, so we should expect Justin Herbert to look to Vidal after having targeted him three times last week.
Bo Nix: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+155 at Bet365)
Since a rain-soaked win over the Jets in Week 4, the Broncos have played 10 games. In one of those games, they played a make-shift, preseason-esque Saints’ roster, where they could easily run the ball down the field, without fear of New Orleans’ offense outscoring them. In the other nine games, Bo Nix threw for multiple touchdowns in seven of them.
In the 6-game stretch we reference above for Sutton, the Chargers have given up multiple touchdown passes in four of them, with Cousins and the underwhelming Chiefs’ offense the teams unable to score more than one touchdown.
Courtland Sutton: Anytime touchdown (+187, Bet365)
All the Sutton-centric above numbers apply to his value to score a touchdown on Thursday at the best price available (the targets, and the Chargers’ vulnerability). Sutton’s also scored in three of the seven games since the Broncos’ went more pass-heavy, for a 42.8% rate or an implied odds of +135. At +187, there’s an 8% edge on a bet for Sutton to be one of Nix’s TD recipients.
Jaleel McLaughlin: Anytime touchdown (+430, FanDuel)
Strangely, the Broncos didn’t have any goal line carries against the Colts, since all their touchdowns came from further out. Jaleel McLaughlin had a carry from the 13-yard line, the closest non-touchdown play of the game. In fact, because of their success in throwing for a score, there haven’t been many drives where a runner has carried it home.
Against the Browns, McLaughlin had the first try at the 1-yard line, which would make him a better value than Javonte Williams (+130) and more likely than Audric Estime (also +430), but he’s also the bigger threat in the passing game when Denver - a phenomenal team at converting from the 10-15-yard line - gets into the red zone.
Marvin Mims: Anytime touchdown (+500, DraftKings)
Sean Payton has a tendency to have a flavor of the week(s), and lately that’s been Marvin Mims. 16 of Mims’ 23 receptions this season have come in the last five games. He’s caught 84% of his targets in that time, and he had a big punt return against the Colts as well. He’s doubled the number of receptions of Troy Franklin - a teammate with a comparable skillset, and the same odds to score - something Mims has done in two of the Broncos’ last four games.
Justin Herbert: Anytime touchdown (+500, FanDuel)
We’ve talked about how grim the Chargers’ tailback situation is without JK Dobbins, but they still have an underrated weapon in Herbert’s legs.
With exactly 17 points in each of their last three games, scoring’s been at a premium for the Chargers, so no one at shorter odds seems particularly valuable since you’re hoping Ladd McConkey isn’t locked down by Pat Surtain and Quentin Johnston doesn’t have the dropsies. However, when desperate times call for it, Herbert - whose scrambled for one and had a touchdown run designed for him - might be the best option for the Chargers to score near the goal line.