TNF: Best bets for Broncos-Saints
Broncos’ offense to explode on the strength of rookie receiver breakouts
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
We put Bo Nix in the graphic this week.
Amazon Prime has been putting Sean Payton in their matchup promotional material, and if you think I’m including that guy in the headline image here, you’ve lost your mind. Meanwhile, doubling up on Alvin Kamara (from Monday Night Football in Week 5) is a sign that this game is bone dry when it comes to star power.
Payton’s return to New Orleans is likely a much bigger deal to him than anyone else. If certain Broncos’ players like Payton, maybe it matters to them as well. It almost definitely doesn’t matter at all to the Saints. It’s something that the pregame show will discuss at length, but there are far more important elements to this handicap than “revenge.”
Broncos @ Saints (+2.5, 37)
From a strict rating perspective, this game is problematic.
If you refer back to the first post from THE WINDOW 2.0 here on Substack, you know that that we rate teams on a scale of 1-to-100. With the lowest rating being 20 before we’re compelled to bet on a team on principle (no team should be below 20 or above 80 unless they’re historically terrible or incredible).
Based on last week’s closing lines - where the Broncos were 3-point underdogs to the slightly above-average Chargers and lost by seven - Denver’s rating is around 37/100. For them to turn around and be bet out to a small favorite on the road, the Saints would have to be expected to play at a level of a 20/100 - the worst team in the league.
Why the expectation for such a bad showing for the home side in New Orleans?
On a short week, Spencer Rattler’s preparing for a defense that was fourth in DVOA before the loss to L.A. and he’s doing so without Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and maybe even Alvin Kamara. The offensive line - already without Ryan Ramczyk and Erik McCoy from the unit that started the season seemingly scoring at will - may be also without Cesar Ruiz and potentially on their fourth center. We’re talking about a preseason roster on offense.
Last week’s Saints’ scoring was provided by a field goal, punt return touchdown, a 17-yard drive for a field goal, a 1-play/10-yard touchdown drive, and a touchdown drive that featured a coverage breakdown for a 47-yard reception from Foster Moreau. All in one quarter. In the second half, the Saints had 48 net yards on six drives - two of which ended with interceptions.
Defensively, it’s only moderately better. Pete Werner is expected to be out for the third straight game. Against the Chiefs, they allowed 28 first downs and seven trips to the red zone on nine drives. Then the Buccaneers gashed them for 31 first downs and 594 yards, 277 of which came on the ground.
Could this version of the Saints be the worst team in the league? Yes.
Meanwhile, the Broncos were hurt by losing Patrick Surtain early last week, and the assumption is that he’ll be out for Thursday. Is that as big a deal against Rattler as it was against Justin Herbert?
Going into last week’s game in Denver, we wondered aloud why the Broncos weren’t getting more credit for winning games in Tampa Bay and New York (vs. the Jets). We can let one game get in the way of thinking that the Broncos should be rated closer to an average team, or we can stick to our guns. After facing defense like the Steelers, Bucs, Jets, and Chargers, Bo Nix should have a much easier time running the plays Sean Payton will have designed for his former team.
With an expectation for more scoring for Denver this week, not only is the team total worth a look, so are a bunch of props that are lined lower than they should be.
Pick: Broncos (-2.5), Broncos team total: Over 19.5 points (-115 at Bet365)
Javonte Williams: Over 44.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Being down 20-0 at halftime will really cramp your rushing attack. So, when the Broncos found themselves in that situation on Sunday, you can see why they’d finish the game with 11 total tailback carries.
Javonte Williams fumbled in the first half last week, but was back in the game in the second half. On a short week, the Broncos can’t afford to turn away from Williams given his ability to pass-block.
Audric Estime’s two carries on two total snaps doesn’t indicate that he’s looming over Williams’ shoulder, and this game sets up to be similar to the previous two weeks when Williams had 16 and 13 carries and cleared 60 rushing yards in both games.
Having seen the Saints give up all the rushing yardage to a trio of Bucs last week, Payton should look to get Williams six carries quickly, maybe by the end of the first quarter.
Troy Franklin: Longest reception - over 13.5 yards (-102 at Pinnacle)
Here’s a look at the snap count over the first five weeks for the rookie out of Oregon:
It’s not a coincidence that Nix’s former teammate got drafted by the Broncos, but Sean Payton’s had to get more comfortable with getting Franklin on the field. In the last four games, targets haven’t always equated to yards, but the 4th-rounder has caught passes of 20+ yards in back-to-back games. With the Saints likely to get gashed again on the ground, a deep shot or two should be available to Franklin.
Devaughn Vele: Over 30.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
The Saints’ Marcus Lattimore did his usual nice job on Mike Evans last week, so he’ll probably get Courtland Sutton duty this week, leaving other Broncos’ pass-catchers available. While Franklin’s always been Nix’s deep threat going back to their days in Eugene, another rookie has been a solid addition as a possession receiver.
Devaughn Vele caught all eight of his targets in the opener in Seattle, but suffered a rib injury that kept him sidelined until veteran Josh Reynolds was put on IR before last Sunday. Vele came in to immediately catch four more passes on six targets, so when he’s on the active roster, he’s a big (6’5) target Nix can lean on.
Alvin Kamara: Under 70.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Kamara rushed for more than 5.5 yards per carry in the Saints first two games. In each game, he had a new offensive coordinator, a veteran offensive line, and a big first half lead.
Since then, the O-line has suffered one injury after another, tape of the new-look offense is out there, and the second-half leads have gone away. The result? On his last 69 carries, Kamara’s had a not-so-nice 3.33 yards per tote. Meanwhile, only four teams have allowed fewer yards per rush than the Broncos, on the strength of 3.6 YPC allowed in their last three games.
With an offense that’s going to struggle to consistently drive the ball, there’s a better than 50/50 chance they’re trailing in the second half. Plus, a lingering hand injury that might make Kamara more likely to tap out early, so 70+ rushing yards is a lot to ask.
We don’t usually recommend SGPs in this space, but there’s some potential reverse correlation value on betting Vele over receptions and Bo Nix under pass attempts along with Franklin over on his yardage. The thinking being that the Broncos won’t need to throw much, but when they do, the rookies have some success.
Something like:
Bo Nix: Under 29.5 pass attempts
Devaughn Vele: Over 3.5 receptions
Troy Franklin: 25+ receiving yards
Troy Franklin: Under 2.5 receptions
Alvin Kamara: Under 70.5 rushing yards
Javonte Williams: Over 48.5 rushing yards
Available at 50-1 on Bet365
Javonte Williams: Anytime touchdown (+150, Bet365)
We’ll start a buy-fest on Broncos’ touchdowns with the most likely scorer on Denver. Even though Williams hasn’t scored a touchdown all season. It’s an odd distinction for a primary tailback, but like the Broncos’ offense in general, it’s been tough-sledding against the run defenses Denver’s faced.
The zero in the touchdown column for Williams and the low total for this game is likely why we’re getting a decent payout for the Broncos’ best goal line option, but since we think Denver scores more than the market thinks, it makes sense that we think Williams is more likely to get his first score than the market. Right?
Maybe Williams gets all the Broncos’ touchdowns. At which point, we’ll break even on the following quartet of long shot scorers. If one of them hits and Williams doesn’t, we’ll still be profitable! And if more than one scores?!..
Devaughn Vele: Anytime touchdown (+500, FanDuel)
Troy Franklin: Anytime touchdown (+604, Pinnacle)
Let’s split a unit on our pair of rookie receivers that are getting more snaps, to actually find the end zone as well.
Vele: 0.5 units to win 2.5 units
Franklin: 0.5 units to 3.02 units
Adam Trautman: Anytime touchdown (+1200, FanDuel)
Lil’Jordan Humphrey: Anytime touchdown (+1000, FanDuel)
Let’s split a half-unit on a pair of former Saints to score. For no other reason than it’s Sean Payton’s return, and isn’t he the type of guy to live vicariously through his players and draw up a touchdown play for one of the guys he’s brought over from the Big Easy?
Trautman: 0.25 units to win 3 units
Humphrey: 0.25 units to win 2.5 units