TNF: Best bets for Buccaneers-Falcons

The Falcons look for their second big divisional home win in less than a week

Prior to the season, the NFC South odds saw the Falcons as the favorite, the Buccaneers as the second choice, the Saints in third and the Panthers as the long shot. After two weeks, thanks to a 2-0 start from the Saints and Bucs, that got all jumbled up - with the exception of the Panthers still lagging behind.

Two weeks after that, and we’re right back to the original order, thanks to the Falcons’ win over the Saints on Sunday in just the second divisional matchup of the season. Atlanta’s right back at it, looking to hold serve in another crucial in-division home game, against Tampa - the other legitimate contender. With a win over the Bucs, Atlanta may even return to an odds-on (minus price) favorite to take the NFC South.

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-1.5, 43.5)

I liked the original number for this game better, as the lookahead line was -3, and it reopened -2.5, only to get bet down to -1.5, likely due to a lack of trust in the Falcons to win a game by anything other than one or two points.

As always in the modern-day NFL, a home favorite of 1.5 points indicates that both teams are looked at as equals, since standard home-field is down to 1.5-2.0 points.

Let’s take a quick look at the evolution of each team’s market rating this season from Week 1 to Week 4:

TB: 46 > 46 > 49 > 47

ATL: 57 > 50 > 52 > 52

When the Buccaneers were rated at their highest, they lost. When the Falcons were rated at their lowest, they won.

Metrics like FTN’s DVOA show that both teams are thoroughly mediocre, with the Buccaneers 19th and 13th and the Falcons 15th and 18th, on offense and defense respectively. Each adds up to Tampa Bay 14th overall and Atlanta 15th.

However, it’s interesting to see how things have shook out regarding the schedule and matchups.

In Week 1, the Falcons were in a precarious position of dealing with the Steelers’ defense in Kirk Cousins’ first game post-Achilles injury, while the Bucs got a look at Jayden Daniels in his first NFL game, before the Commanders’ rookie started looking like this since:

Both teams have played the Eagles, but the Falcons had to go to Philadelphia, while the Bucs got the Eagles at home without DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson (AJ Brown missed both).

The Buccaneers managed a road win in Detroit but were out-gained 463-216, something that’s not reliable for success on a weekly basis, then followed that with a stinker at home to the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Falcons were right there with the Chiefs, and managed the aforementioned win over the Saints.

Though their scoring mostly came on defense and special teams, the Falcons managed their offensive line injuries well enough on Sunday, and they may get right tackle Kaleb McGary back. Bijan Robinson wasn’t 100%, but Tyler Allgeier is a capable replacement. Meanwhile, red letters are pervasive throughout the Buccaneers’ depth chart.

Tampa’s offensive success is somewhat reliant on a good matchup for Mike Evans, and this week he sees AJ Terrell and a quality Falcons’ secondary, compared to last week’s sieve-like Eagles’ unit.

As per rules and regulations regarding betting on Atlanta at a short number, let’s opt for the moneyline.

Pick: Falcons moneyline (-119)

Bijan Robinson: Under 64.5 rushing yards (-108, Pinnacle)

Taking the under on Robinson’s yardage was an easy winner on Sunday, as he ran for just 28 yards on only seven carries while managing a shoulder injury with his smallest snap share of the season. On a short week, we can probably expect a similar workload where he’s on the field for just over half the plays, particularly on passing downs. Especially with a viable alternative in Tyler Allgeier who is averaging 6.1 yards per carry compared to 4.1 for Robinson.

Cade Otton: Over 3.5 receptions (+135, Bet365) / Anytime touchdown (+380, FanDuel)

It took a couple games for Baker Mayfield to remember that Cade Otton’s on the team, but the Bucs’ top tight end has been on the field for 228 of Tampa’s 246 plays this season, and the quarterback is looking his way now.

After four targets in the first two games, where Otton may have had to stay into block the strong defensive lines of Washington and Detroit, Otton’s caught 13 of 17 targets in the last two games. At plus money to catch four balls, and a long shot price to score his first touchdown, we’ll look Otton’s way for a pair of bets on Thursday night.

Tyler Allgeier: Anytime touchdown (+264, Pinnacle)

After a carry split of 8-7 in favor of Allgeier last week, there’s no reason to believe the BYU product won’t get a look near the end zone, and if Robinson gets ruled out then Allgeier’s touchdown odds should plummet before kickoff.

Ray-Ray McCloud: Anytime touchdown (+333, Bet365)

After Week 1, where Ray-Ray McCloud played about half the snaps, the Falcons have used 13-personnel (1 RB, 3 WR) almost 100% of the time. McCloud (5.5 per game) has almost as many targets as Darnell Mooney (+220 to score), and even has two rushing attempts. If Robinson is diminished or unable to play, McCloud may get an extra red zone play designed for him.