TNF: Best bets for Commanders-Eagles
Eagles fly, but who runs?
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Back before the season started, we deployed an “anybody but the Cowboys (and Giants, but who’s worried about them?)” strategy for the NFC East, and it would appear that backing the Commanders and Eagles to win the division is going to pay off. It also means, as we enter Week 11, we have no predetermined horse in this divisional race. We can look at this Thursday Night Football matchup earnestly, and with little bias.
Commanders @ Eagles (-3.5, 48.5)
The Washington renaissance has been fun, and, with two games left against Dallas, along with the Titans and Saints still on the schedule, there’s no reason to be concerned long-term. However, in the shortest-term - a quick-turnaround Thursday-Nighter - there might be.
Since leaving Washington’s Week 7 beatdown of the Panthers with a rib injury, Jayden Daniels hasn’t been nearly as effective with his legs, with only a couple designed runs per game that have resulted in a lower EPA/Play than similar plays earlier in the season. His completion percentage has come back down to earth, as has his average depth of target during neutral game-states.
Since that epic week where Washington won in Cincinnati and blew out the Cardinals in Arizona, the Commanders have a convincing win over the Deshaun Watson Browns, a blowout of the Panthers, beating the Bears by Hail Mary, and edging the Giants a week before New York lost to Carolina. Losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh were close, but going into Philadelphia on a short week might be an even bigger step-up in weight class, especially post-Daniels’ injury.
The Eagles have won five straight since losing in Tampa Bay without AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson. Just two of those were close, but the underdog was helped by fluke plays - the Browns’ blocked field-goal return touchdown and the botched video review of Saquon Barkley’s fumble-turned-touchdown for the Jaguars. Throw in the giveaway loss to the Falcons in Week 2, and if the Eagles could just stay out of their own way, they’d likely be 8-1.
A point spread of 3.5 is fair based on how the market’s rated each team lately, but you don’t often see the hook available off the key number of +3 for long - as sharp bettors usually gobble this up quickly - but I think there’s a reason the Commanders are still available at more than a field goal.
Pick: Eagles (-3.5)
Jayden Daniels: Under 44.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365)
The Eagles’ defense had a lot of improving to do, going from 6.7 opponents’ yards per pass attempt, to a league-best 5.5. It’s an indication that new defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, has put his stamp on the unit over the course of this season. It requires some coaching to be prepared for a dangerous dual-threat like Daniels, but with the Commanders’ calling fewer designed runs for their quarterback, the Eagles’ just need to keep Daniels in the pocket. The Steelers’ were able to do that, holding Daniels to just a handful of yards.
Whether it’s defensive awareness, the rookie’s increased comfort in the pocket, or concern about the rib cage, Daniels has gone from 11.4 rushing attempts per game through Week 5, to 5.6 in his last five games. Even with more than his average of 5.5 yards per carry, he’d most likely need nine carries to clear this total, as long as Philadelphia doesn’t give up a huge gain.
Kenneth Gainwell: Over 13.5 rushing yards (-110, at Bet365)
Call it an attempt to take some of the workload off Saquon Barkley, but the Eagles have upped the usage for Gainwell. In the last four games, Gainwell’s had at least five carries, and has gone over this total in four of his last five. Averaging 4.2 yards per carry since the Eagles’ Week 5 bye, if Gainwell gets five carries again, to keep Barkley fresh on a short week, he should clear this total.
Saquon Barkley: Under 110.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115, at DraftKings)
Barkley’s 7-2 to the over on this total, but between Gainwell taking some of the load off, Dallas Goedert back for a few targets, both top receivers healthy, and Hurts’ healthy legs able to gain bigger chunks of yardage, Barkley doesn’t need to be leaned on the way he was earlier in the year when Brown, Smith, and Goedert missed time, or when he had revenge in his eyes against the Giants. Meanwhile, the Commanders allow the fewest receptions per game to opposing tailbacks.
Jalen Hurts: Anytime touchdown (-110, DraftKings)
At -110, like a point spread or any other bet with standard odds, this is a 50/50 proposition. Hurts has scored in four straight and in five of the Eagles’ last six games, for a total of nine touchdowns in those games.
You already know what a Hurts touchdown looks like - either a “tush push” play at the goal line, or a scramble/designed run from a little further out, but with Hurts healthier than he was last year when he still scored in 11 of 17 regular games (64.7%), he’s better than 50/50 to score.
DeVonta Smith: Anytime touchdown (+220, FanDuel)
The way to gain chunk yardage against the Commanders is still through the air, but their metrics have been assisted by having faced Daniel Jones twice, Watson, Andy Dalton, and Caleb Williams.
Against Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson, the Commanders have allowed a total of 11 passing touchdowns and almost 30 points per game.
After a 2023 season where Smith scored in seven of 16 games (43.8%), he’s scored in four of seven (57.1%) this season. At +220 (31.3% implied probability), there’s a decent-sized edge, assuming Smith (hamstring) is able to play on Thursday night.
Jahan Dotson: Anytime touchdown (+850, FanDuel)
Olamide Zaccheaus: Anytime touchdown (+750, FanDuel)
Luke McCaffrey: Anytime touchdown (+800, FanDuel)
Let’s split a unit on a trio of longshots that haven’t scored yet this season.
If Smith can’t go, or is limited, Jahan Dotson is the next target up from the receiver pool. But even if Smith is fine, Hurts has connected with Dotson on a long catch the last two weeks, so we know he trusts his third receiver (over 50% of snaps played this season). Nick Sirianni seems like the type of guy who would advocate for rewarding the former Commander with his first touchdown as an Eagle, with a play run for him near the end zone or a deep-shot against single-coverage.
Olamide Zaccheaus and Luke McCaffrey have had five red zone touches in the last four games, and each is playing around one-third of the snaps.
Last week, on Washington’s first trip anywhere near the endzone, they ran a play for Zaccheaus, hoping he could break a tackle and score from the 15-yard line. Against Pittsburgh, McCaffrey had as many targets (three) as he’s had all season and caught his second-longest reception of the year.
If the underdog Commanders are trailing late, their passing volume may go up, and these two depth receivers would still be in a game that’s already decided, should the favored Eagles be up bigger than the market expects.