TNF: Best bets for Cowboys-Giants
Will the Giants exorcise recent demons against “America’s Team”?
This is a far more interesting matchup than our mind’s eye will let us believe.
When we think of the Cowboys and Giants, you probably picture Dallas drilling New York, with the Cowboys’ pass rush dominating the Giants’ offensive line, sending Daniel Jones (and various other quarterbacks) into various states of panic.
The question heading into this week’s Thursday-nighter, is whether the Cowboys can put the Giants in a position where the pass rush can ruin the game for New York, like it has so many times before.
Cowboys @ Giants (+6, 45)
Let’s try to get through the psychology of Cowboys-Giants matchups in recent past, to cleanse our point of view.
Dallas combined to outscore the Giants 89-17 last year, with seven sacks in a Week 1 primetime shutout, and five more sacks of Tommy DeVito later in a season where the Cowboys’ finished fifth in defensive DVOA and had 34 sacks in the remaining 15 games (2.3 per game).
So far this season, the Cowboys have seven sacks, and the defense is 16th in the NFL in defensive DVOA. They allowed 4.2 yards per carry to the opponent in 2023, but are giving up a league-worst 5.4 YPC through three games.
Perhaps being on his third team in three years has provoked an all-in attitude from Devin Singletary, but he’s been solid in running through the holes that an offensive line that ESPN has fourth in run-block win rate, and sixth in pass-block win rate (11th and 23rd last year).
“I’m coming to show you week-in and week-out how I put it on the line for my guys on the left and right of me.” - Devin Singletary, before the 2024 season.
The Giants’ O-line improvement shouldn’t be a huge surprise since their best piece, left tackle Andrew Thomas, isn’t battling injury the way he was during last season’s matchups with the Cowboys.
Finally, it helps that the Giants have a star offensive weapon to throw to, that they haven’t had since the best days of Odell Beckham Jr. Blame an underrated injury to DaRon Bland, but the Cowboys don’t have anyone that can cover Malik Nabers. The focus required on the Giants’ rookie should allow for the secondary pass-catching pieces to find room elsewhere.
As strange as it is to say, there’s no reason why the Cowboys’ defense won’t still be vulnerable for Brian Daboll, whose takeover of the offensive play-calling may have found some traction after getting checkmated by Brian Flores in Week 1.
Offensive line questions from before the season have not been answered, and 3.6 yards per rush isn’t setting up easy completions for Dak Prescott. The Giants’ front-seven is coming off a game where they dominated a suspect Browns’ offensive line, and they’re just as likely to wreak havoc on Thursday night.
Pick: Giants +6 (-112, DraftKings)
Jalen Tolbert: Over 27.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)
Prescott’s faith in Jalen Tolbert seems to be increasing by the game. Frequently in 13-personnel, Tolbert plays as many snaps as Brandin Cooks, with the third-year receiver catching 10 of 16 targets to Cooks’ 8-of-15. Yet, Cooks is commonly lined at 39.5, and Tolbert can be found at 27.5.
At the very least, Tolbert’s taken over Michael Gallup’s role from last season, when the WR3 in the Cowboys’ offense was lined between 38.5 and 52.5 receiving yards, despite playing roughly 50% of the snaps per game. Tolbert’s on the field close to 80% of the snaps, and should be lined at least as high as Cooks.
Daniel Jones: Under 31.5 pass attempts (+100, Pinnacle)
Not even counting the Browns 1-play, 29-yard touchdown to open last week’s game, nine of Cleveland’s 11 standard drives took less than 3:00 off the clock. The Browns kept giving the Giants the ball.
Based on opportunity alone, Jones crawled over 31.5 pass attempts, but - with some fear existing for the Cowboys’ pass rush - if you don’t have to throw this much, why should you?
The point spread (and the perception of this matchup) suggests that Jones is more likely to be in a trailing game state, but if we think it’s going to be closer, and a more neutral state, we should also expect something closer to where he’s been lined in the past - anywhere from 29.5 to 31.5.
The Giants can get bigger chunks of yardage through the air than we’re accustomed to in this matchup, while also having more success in the run game - both leading to fewer pass attempts from Jones.
Note: As I was writing this, the line for Jones’ pass attempts dropped from 32.5 (-120 to the under) to 31.5, indicating this line was set too high to begin with.
Jake Ferguson: Anytime touchdown (+250, Pinnacle)
Last season, Jake Ferguson saw 29 red zone targets from Prescott, just seven fewer than CeeDee Lamb, closing the year priced at +200 or shorter to score on a weekly basis.
Ferguson missed the second game of the season, but returned with 11 catches for 95 yards last week, though he was kept out of the end zone by the Ravens. With the price creeping up as high as +250, backing Ferguson to score against the Giants who haven’t faced a high-end threat at tight end (Josh Oliver, Zach Ertz and Jordan Akins) in their first three games.
Theo Johnson: Anytime touchdown (+682, Pinnacle)
Daniel Bellinger is the better-known, incumbent at the tight end position for the Giants, but rookie fourth-rounder, Theo Johnson is on the field for 80% of the snaps. Last week in Cleveland, Johnson got three more targets including his first look in the end zone. If there’s a coverage breakdown thanks to the focus on Nabers, Johnson might convert a look at long odds, making this worth a half-unit bet.