TNF: Best bets for Packers-Lions
Green Bay’s rating at a season-high and defensive injuries abound on both sides
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
It’s a less ballyhooed NFL tradition - the Thursday Night Football game that isn’t a matchup on a short week. It’s the only in-season opportunity to take two teams who played the previous Thursday and match ‘em up for an un-compromised mid-week showdown. As a result, the level of play should be higher than we usually see at this time of the week, but with a full week of rest, why is the betting market so worried about injuries?
Packers @ Lions (-3.5, 51.5)
The lookahead line for this Thursday-nighter was -5.5.
Comparing the Packers to the Bears (+9.5 last week) and that line suggests a 4-point difference between Green Bay and Chicago, who recently played a one-point game that came down to a missed field goal at Soldier Field. Now that separation is six points.
The Lions also didn’t cover last week against the Bears, but while the headline was Matt Eberflus and Caleb Williams botching the final seconds of a 3-point game, the Lions had built a 16-0 late in the second quarter, and Jahmyr Gibbs was one uneventful fall-down away from setting up either a 19-0 or 23-0 halftime lead. Instead, he fumbled.
Still just down two possessions, the Bears talked themselves back to life around the time Shaboozey hit the Ford Field crowd with the chorus of The Bar Song, and after halftime, Chicago stormed back to make it close. The Lions’ excuse? Injuries piling up on defense.
DJ Reader and Josh Paschal have been ruled out on the defensive line, and Malcolm Rodriguez goes from taking over the defensive communication from Alex Anzalone, to joining him on IR. Throw in Taylor Decker’s absence on the offensive line, and the line has come down, touching -3 (-118) at DraftKings.
Is this entirely a downgrade of Detroit? They’re still -3 next week against the Bills, so there’s only so far they could have fallen (even if you assume better health in 10 days). The betting interest in Green Bay has to involve an upgrade to the Packers after they handled the Dolphins. However, to get in the neighborhood of +3, Green Bay has to be considered near the level of Buffalo, and a win against Miami doesn’t warrant that for me. For one, I don’t think the Dolphins are worthy of their above-average market rating, and secondly, beating Miami in the cold, is very much (in Chris Rock voice) “doing what you’re supposed to do.”
While the commotion over the Lions’ injuries prevails, the Packers have question marks next to the names of their left tackle and center, know they’ll be without Jaire Alexander, and are holding out hope for a pair of linebackers who are questionable.
Fundamentally, as much as the Packers might be more suited to the indoors than the rainy conditions of the first matchup, there’s no value in backing Green Bay unless you’re betting that they took a leap in status - right behind Detroit and Buffalo - with convincing wins over the beat-up 49ers and shivering Dolphins.
Green Bay did manage 6.6 yards per play in a Week 10 loss, so I expect both teams to generate offense in what could be the type of track meet the Lions often find themselves in when they play good teams and both sides are missing pieces on defense.
Pick: Over 51.5 total points (-108, DraftKings)
Tucker Kraft: Over 3.5 receptions (-115 at DraftKings)
The Packers got back to basics against the Dolphins, taking advantage of their biggest offensive personnel-centric mismatch - Kraft’s ability to take linebackers and safeties to the perimeter and force them to cover and tackle him. With the Lions’ on their third middle linebacker, there’s a good chance there will be confusion regarding what to do with Kraft and the numerous places he lines up pre-snap.
With Romeo Doubs out against Miami, Kraft caught six passes on seven targets, and Doubs is out again on Thursday.
Josh Jacobs: Over 17.5 receiving yards (-106 at FanDuel)
Jacobs is only 5-4 to the over on this number, which is why it’s as low as it is, but Love should find himself dropping back to throw in an effort to keep up with the Lions, and in close games with the Vikings, Texans, Bears, and last week’s win over the Dolphins, Jacobs has received an average of five targets per game.
Similar to a plan where throwing it to Kraft challenges the middle of the Lions’ defense, so does putting Jacobs in space. It might only take one or two catches for him to clear this total.
Tim Patrick: Longest pass completion - Over 14.5 yards (-118 at FanDuel)
While Patrick’s snap share hasn’t changed that much since Khalif Raymond went down with injury, the 6’5 veteran receiver provides a big target that Jared Goff is willing to push the ball down the field to. Patrick’s caught three passes of 18+ yards in the last two games. With Alexander out again for the Packers, Green Bay’s secondary will have their hands full with Amon-Ra St. Brown and the threat of Jameson Williams getting loose.
Jahmyr Gibbs: Under 12.5 rush attempts (-115 at Bet365)
With few exceptions, Gibbs gets used more in the run game during convincing Lions’ wins or when David Montgomery gets hurt during the game. The line drop to -3, with a total over 50, suggests a shootout may be in store, where Gibbs can gash the Packers both on the ground and through the air, but the higher volume of carries might go to Montgomery.
Tucker Kraft: Anytime touchdown (+210, FanDuel)
Kraft has scored in five of 12 games (41.6%) this season, which translates to fair of odds of +140. With the expectation that Kraft provides a positive matchup for the Packers (he was targeted six times in the first meeting), we’ll back Kraft to find the end zone in what should be a high-scoring game.
Dontayvion Wicks: Anytime touchdown (+260, FanDuel)
Luckily, Wicks went under his yardage total last week, but with Doubs out, he played the most snaps (by percentage) of his career. Doubs is out again, and Wicks should get even more looks this week in a matchup that will be in doubt much later into the game. Being on the field 89% of the time means Wicks should have a look or two near, or in, the end zone.
Christopher Brooks: Anytime touchdown (+800, Bet365)
For the last five games, Brooks has quietly taken over the backup tailback duties, with more carries than Eugene Wilson, and he’s also caught a pass in all five of those games. At 8-to-1 odds, even with just five touches, the second-year player out of BYU is worth a half-unit to score his first career touchdown, because it’s coming at some point this season.
Jameson Williams: Anytime touchdown (+240, Bet365)
Want a basic handicap? When the Lions score a lot of points, Jameson Williams usually finds the end zone. In the six games where Williams has played and Detroit has 26+ points, Williams has scored in four of them. With a projected score of 27-24 Lions (-3, 51), he becomes more likely to score than his overall probability. Which, at 40% (four TDs in 10 games), suggests a more appropriate price of +150 for a score anyway.