TNF: Best bets for Patriots-Jets

Can the Patriots continue to be a pesky underdog?

Another Thursday-nighter, another AFC East clash. Even if it isn’t quite as spicy as last week’s matchup.

The Patriots have proven to be a tough team for their opponents to digest, shocking the Bengals in Week 1 and taking the Seahawks to overtime last week. However, the betting market is taking a cautious approach, adjusting their rating upward very slowly. Meanwhile, coming off a beatdown at the hands of the 49ers in the opener, the Jets saved some face with a win in Tennessee. 

Each team’s early results, and perhaps the influence of so many underdogs winning in Week 2, has seen a point spread that was -7 in the lookahead market, re-open at -6.5, go down to -6, and subsequently bounce back and forth. 

Patriots @ Jets (-6, 38.5)

I can see why there would be interest in the Patriots here, after a pair of games where their defense kept them competitive. In Week 1, the Bengals handed them a win on a silver platter garnished with turnovers, poor tackling, and a very vanilla gameplan for dessert.

The Patriots’ offense hasn’t been anything special, and Jacoby Brissett took quite a beating against Seattle. If the Jets’ defense is as advertised, New England should continue to struggle to get big yardage gains. Especially considering some of their best work has come off-schedule, with Brissett eluding pressure and finding Hunter Henry for catch-and-runs. Their ground game has been consistent, but any explosiveness seemed to be more accidental. I question whether Rhamondre Stevenson has the quickness and the offensive line blocking to get to the outside of the Jets’ defense, who tightened up their Week 1 vulnerability against the Titans (23 carries for 82 yards).

The Jets are one of four teams to be playing their first home game this weekend, and a primetime game against a division rival, with the optimism of last week’s win, should have the crowd in a frenzy early, which should be problematic for an offensive line that’s 31 in pressure-rate allowed.

The Seahawks eventually abandoned the run against New England’s defense, but had success against the Patriots’ secondary. Look for Aaron Rodgers to feel like he can pepper his top targets early. 

One thing to worry about when laying points is the explosiveness of a team to make a fourth quarter push to draw closer if trailing. The Pats haven’t been in a true trailing game state yet this season, with their biggest deficit just four points to Seattle. If the Jets have a lead of 7+ points in the fourth quarter, I don’t believe in New England’s ability to drop back and play catchup, as they’ve completed just eight passes to wide receivers so far this season. 

Historically, the better team tends to win and cover on Thursday nights. After two mid-week games between evenly matched teams, it’s more likely that the higher-rated Jets close out a somewhat convincing win on a short week.

Pick: Jets (-6, -107 at Pinnacle)

Antonio Gibson: Over 32.5 rushing and receiving yards (Bet365)

One of the ways to play the player props markets is to zig when the betting market is zagging. With the projected point total under 40, not much offense is expected, so there may be value in betting some overs.

Antonio Gibson saw significant action in the second half last week, and the former college receiver has always been a threat in the passing game. If the Patriots are trailing in the second half, we may see Gibson in the game more, due to the need for a “third-down offense.” 

Gibson’s also the quicker option compared to Stevenson, and could be more likely to have success in off-tackle runs. 

Hunter Henry: Over 33.5 receiving yards (Bet365)

Last week, half of Brissett’s 24 pass attempts went in the direction of Hunter Henry, and eight of 15 completions. While that split is unlikely to happen again, if Brissett’s pass attempts go up (lined at 28.5), so should Henry’s chances for receiving success. 

Garrett Wilson: Over 5.5 receptions (FanDuel)

Last week, the Patriots allowed 22 receptions on 30 targets to the Seahawks’ wide receiver combo of DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as the duo tallied 246 total yards. Compared to the Patriots’ run defense, there might be a vulnerability in the secondary.

Garrett Wilson had five receptions on 10 targets on just 38 total offensive plays run with Rodgers taking snaps in San Francisco. Over 26% of the time, Rodgers looked Wilson’s way. Last week in Tennessee, Wilson caught just four passes, but he was shadowed by the Titans’ shutdown corner L’Jarius Sneed. In an easier matchup, look for Wilson to be involved early and often.

Mike Williams: Anytime touchdown (+490, FanDuel)

In Week 1, Mike Williams’ longest odds to score were +265. The Jets eased him back into action with just nine snaps, but many of them came in the red zone, theoretically using Williams as a specialist in a game where they didn’t run many plays on offense. 

Then in Week 2, Williams’ snap total shot up to 37. Being on the field 65% of the time took snaps from Xavier Gipson and Allen Lazard. Rodgers gave Williams a chance to make a play, and Williams used his size to make a 19-yard catch converting a big second-half first down. 

Despite the increase in confidence, usage, and availability, Williams’ odds to score have lengthened to as high as +490. While it’s not probably, if things progress as expected, Williams’ chances to score have to be better than 17% (implied probability of +490 odds). 

Ja’Lynn Polk: Anytime touchdown (+600, FanDuel)

The Patriots aren’t throwing to wide receivers because frankly, the group isn’t very good. However, their rookie out of Washington, Ja’Lynn Polk might be. Polk’s playing time ticked up from Week 1 to Week 2, and he caught his first career touchdown against Seattle, adding a difficult grab later in the game. If there’s someone the Patriots could scheme open out of the slot, away from Sauce Gardner, it’s Polk. Give me 6-to-1 to score on any potential WR1, and I’ll take it for a half-unit. 

Austin Hooper: Anytime touchdown (+1100, DraftKings)

With the other half-unit for a Patriots’ touchdown, I’ll look to Austin Hooper at 10-to-1 or better. He’s not as exciting as Polk, but his snap share of 55% and 54% in the first two games indicates he’s on the field. With attention paid to the runners and Henry near the goal line, the Patriots might be able to find the 29-year-old veteran who had four targets in Week 1. 

A low-investment, mega-longshot would be a nice way to start a weekend’s worth of betting.