TNF: Best bets for Texans-Jets
Jets struggles to score continue, and cornering the Texan tight end market
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Do you think, if we start the petition now, that we can get the Jets’ Week 11 game with the Colts flexed out of Sunday Night Football?
There’s a Bears-Packers game that we can slot right in there, Gang.
If so, we can wave goodbye to the Jets in primetime this Thursday, after six games where Aaron Rodgers and company have hijacked a standalone time slot.
In our own Halloween nightmare, we get to spend the evening with Rodgers’ body language.
All the signs were there, before the season, that the Jets might end up being a horror show, but starting 2-6 has induced Drew Barrymore-level screams from those in the mainstream media stabbing us repeatedly with this saga.
We anticipated that the Texans might be overrated as well, which has been true, but their 3-5 mark against the spread is masked by a 6-2 record and a lead in the predictably grim AFC South.
Texans @ Jets (-2, 42)
Money came against the Texans last week, as they opened -6 but closed -4.5 to Indianapolis. That ended up working out as the underdog somehow managed to cover, but if you’re trying to figure out why the line moved, it’s hard to imagine that was due to a belief the Anthony Richardson-led Colts were some Cujo-level deadly ‘dog. More likely, the market was selling the Texans last week, as the lookahead line for Texans-Jets was right around pick’em.
The Texans were clinging to a win at the same time, the Jets were blowing a lead to the offensive firepower of Jacoby Brissett and the Patriots. With this line now as high as Jets -2, our best guess is that the Texans’ have dipped in power ratings because of the season-ending injury to Stefon Diggs. It also means there STILL hasn’t been much of a downgrade to the Jets.
Over-arching thought: A 2-point spread for this game implies the 6-2 Texans and 2-6 Jets are equals on a neutral field.
It might be a red flag that there’s an expectation for the Jets to finally plays the game their backers having been waiting on all season. They haven’t covered a point spread since a Thursday-nighter against the Patriots. Maybe New York finally puts it all together on Thursday night, but if you’ve been betting that to happen, you’ve lost more than a few bets along the way.
If another dip in the Texans’ rating is due to Diggs’ absence, that doesn’t track for me. In the same (but opposite) way, the Jets haven’t seen an uptick in offense after adding Davante Adams. The betting market usually projected Diggs for 5.5 catches and around 70 yards. Whether it’s targeting other receivers, like veteran Robert Woods, or their tight ends, CJ Stroud can make up for that production.
The Texans’ most efficient offense comes from Joe Mixon, though. With 100+ rushing yards, and at least one touchdown in every game he’s been healthy in, the Texans have scored at least 20 points in each of those games.
The Jets have been Jekyll and Hyde on run defense, so let’s list the teams they’ve had success against:
Good: Patriots (2x), Vikings, Titans
Bad: Steelers, Bills, Broncos, 49ers
Which category do Mixon and the Texans fall into?
Barring some sort of wrench like last Thursday, where one team got reinforcements back, Thursday night games often come down to who can do the basics correctly. The Texans have a better chance of running the ball, taking time off the clock while also getting pressure on Rodgers.
That’s a recipe for an under. However, I don’t want to fade the Texans’ offense that might be more successful than the market thinks. Instead, we’ll zero-in on the Jets, taking their team total under 21.5 points.
Pick: Jets team total - Under 21.5 points (-110, FanDuel)
Aaron Rodgers: Long pass completion - under 35.5 yards (-115 at Bet365)
The Texans can rush the passer (third in sack percentage) and from what I’ve seen, Rodgers has little interest in hanging in the pocket long enough to go deep.
Here’s a list of pass-catchers, available to Rodgers on Thursday, that have caught a pass of longer than 35 yards this season:
Breece Hall (57-yard pass @ Pittsburgh)
Adams and Garrett Wilson are skilled possession receivers, but neither has shown the speed to turn an underneath throw into a big play. Allen Lazard caught a Hail Mary, and a 36-yard catch on a coverage breakdown in Week 1, but he’s out with a chest injury.
The Texans have given up the big play on occasion, but half of those have come against the Colts and Richardson, whose one true NFL skill is throwing the ball as far as possible. Justin Jefferson (he’s good), Keon Coleman (turned an 8-yard out into a long TD), and Kayshon Boutte (A surprise dime in Drake Maye’s debut), have also tallied big plays against the Texans, but those outliers act more as a reason for why this number is as high as 35.5, and not a warning against betting the under.
Mike Williams: Under 22.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet365)
Is it out of line to say that Aaron Rodgers doesn’t like Mike Williams?
Rodgers doesn’t do as good of a job hiding his distaste for anyone or anything than he thinks he does, and Williams is only playing because Lazard is out. That doesn’t mean Rodgers has to throw the ball Williams’ way, so despite having him on the field for 36 snaps in New England, Rodgers didn’t throw it to him at all.
Xavier Gipson caught a touchdown last, so he may seem more offensive snaps out of the slot, and, of course, there are never enough throws for Adams or Wilson.
Dalton Schultz: Anytime touchdown (+370, FanDuel)
Cade Stover: Anytime touchdown (+1300, FanDuel)
Teagan Quitoriano: Anytime touchdown (+1800, DraftKings)
Who’s going to pick up the production left behind by Diggs?
There are plenty of wide receivers - John Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson, Robert Woods - that will be on the field. However, the Texans’ have gone to more personnel involving two tight ends on the field, so let’s split a unit amongst the entire position group.
Of the six Texans to see 18+ targets this season, Dalton Schultz is the only one not to score and only five players in the league have more targets without scoring a touchdown.
Anyone feel like guessing who the five are? Fun!
Including playoffs last year, Schultz caught a touchdown pass in six of 14 games after October 1st. He’s the best guess at who might see plays drawn up for him near the end zone while also being capable of scoring from further out.
Cade Stover saw a season-high three targets last week, and the rookie 4th-rounder’s been on the field for half the offensive plays in the last three weeks. At 13-1 on FanDuel, on the field that much, and already getting some attention from his former Ohio State quarterback, Stover’s a good bet as a long shot.
At such long odds for the Texans’ tight end trio, we might as well get something down on all three. Teagan Quitoriano has two career catches, but saw a season-high 24 snaps last week, and at 18-1, we’d be kicking ourselves if we didn’t throw a few bucks his way, just to corner the market on Texan tight end scorers.