TNF: Best bets for the Bills and Dolphins

Surprising success containing a star and backing a tight end duo to score

After the NFL’s opening night banger between the Ravens and Chiefs, I was expecting a dip in matchup quality for the following Thursday-nighter, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a game with higher stakes this early in the season than Bills-Dolphins. 

Depending on how you feel about the Jets, this might be the first fork in the road on the path to winning the hotly-contested AFC East. We’re on record holding a Dolphins’ ticket in that market, but the handicap was based on comparing the two teams’ early-season schedules (before a November rematch):

• Bills: @MIA, JAX, @BAL, @HOU, @NYJ, TEN, @SEA

• Dolphins: BUF, @SEA, TEN, @NE, BYE, @IND, ARI

It’s a bet predicated on the Dolphins having a better record through seven or eight games. 

Which would you rather have - trips to Baltimore and Houston or New England and Indianapolis? Host the Jaguars or the Cardinals? 

The bet isn’t necessarily a pronouncement that the Dolphins are the better team right now. 

With Miami the host of this first duel, they opened a 1.5-point favorite - essentially the standard amount given for home-field advantage, particularly with this primetime game mitigating the South Florida heat factor. However, the line has drifted up towards the Dolphins. 

Bills @ Dolphins (-2.5, 48.5)

After three rushing touchdowns to save the day against the Cardinals, you’d think Josh Allen’s back would be sore from carrying the Bills, but it’s actually his left-hand that was banged up, causing concern he might not be ready for this quick turnaround. However, he appears good to go. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have ruled out Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane is questionable for a full workload. 

None of these injuries should cause a line move, so it seems like the market believes the Dolphins don’t just have an early-season scheduling advantage, but are the better team as well. 

That remains to be seen, but if the regard for the Dolphins comes from fear over their offensive attack, it’s worth noting that Buffalo held Tua Tagovailoa to 173 passing yards and Miami to 275 total yards (compared to 473 for the Bills) in last season’s Week 18 winner-takes-the-division season finale. Earlier in the season, the yardage totals were tighter, but were cosmetically enhanced after Buffalo took a 31-14 lead into halftime in Orchard Park. 

Allowing 28 points to the Cardinals in the opener might raise concern about the Bills’ ability to slow a team down, but Arizona managed just 4.5 yards per play.

The Jaguars’ might have been over reliant on the running game against the Dolphins, but it’s hard to argue with being content to chew up 4.9 yards per carry, while hoping to wear down Miami’s defense in the heat. Jacksonville was one more Travis Etienne yard away from taking a potentially insurmountable 17-point second-half lead, and creating a Week 1 data point that might have painted the Dolphins in a different light. 

As the line drifts up, I’ll be on the lookout for the first sign of Bills +3 at -120 or better, settling for +2.5 at even money or close to it. 

Advice: Wait for a Bills +3, buy at -120 or better

Tyreek Hill: Under 97.5 receiving yards (-116, at Pinnacle)

If you want to have a bad time on Thursday night, why not take the under on the most explosive player in the NFL?

It will keep you in a state of dread, but the Bills have done well in containing Tyreek Hill in seven games against him. In Week 18 last season, it wasn’t for lack of trying by the Dolphins. Hill was targeted 13 times but only managed 18 yards. This, after just three catches for 58 yards in the earlier matchup (despite a trailing game-state that encouraged passing). 

Those games might not be a coincidence either, as the Bills have given up the fewest yards per target to Hill (5.9) of any team, despite facing the star receiver fifth-most in the NFL. 

Buffalo will be without star nickel defensive back Taron Johnson for this game, but since they can dictate coverage, Sean McDermott can keep his replacement, No. 3 corner, away from Hill. That might hurt the Bills in mismatches that favor other Dolphins’ pass-catchers, especially if part of their success with Hill has come from double-teams, but it will keep Hill under 100 yards.

Dalton Kincaid: Anytime touchdown (+273, at Pinnacle)

Now that we have one game’s worth of data, we can get into snap counts for teams. For betting on usage and opportunity, that’s critical.

Dalton Kincaid played the most snaps of any Bills’ offensive weapon, so I’m not going to freak out about just two targets heading his way last week. Kincaid only had two touchdowns in the regular season of his rookie season, so he’s being priced as if it’s only 25% likely he scores. However, given the Bills’ offensive philosophy shift, the touchdowns are coming. Hopefully Thursday night. 

Dawson Knox: Anytime touchdown (+500, at DraftKings)

That philosophy shift includes using more two-tight end sets. For example, Dawson Knox played as much as Bills’ WR2 Mack Hollins, and more than WR3 Khalil Shakir. However, those wideouts have shorter payouts in the anytime touchdown market than Knox, despite being a reliable touchdown-scoring target for Allen in big games’ past.  

With his left-hand sore, Allen might be marginally less likely to score, and more likely to use his right hand near the goal line. With defensive attention paid to Kincaid, we’ll add Knox to the card, backing both tight ends, hoping at least one of them scores.