TNF: Best bets for the Steelers and Browns
Tight end season is upon us
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
This is the type of rusted-out matchup that you’d hope for, as the leaves have fully turned, the air’s gotten cold, and Thanksgiving is right around the corner.
Whether it’s the perfect matchup for bettors remains to be seen, but it does set up like a game that would traditionally provide opportunity for a bettor who understands the buy-low, sell-high nature of the NFL.
Steelers @ Browns (+3.5, 37)
As we’ve said before, Thursday Night Football is about the basics - taking a rudimentary game plan and imposing what you do best on the opponent on short rest.
The Steelers are the better team, so, in theory, the first look should be in their direction on the premise that they have a better understanding of what they “do.” However, offensively, Pittsburgh’s still trying to figure out what they are, in the four games started by Russell Wilson. The much-talked-about “moonball” from Wilson can be fun, but there wasn’t much production from the passing game against a porous Ravens’ pass defense on Sunday as Wilson surprisingly struggled to a 14.4 QBR. Meanwhile, just four teams have run for fewer yards per carry than Pittsburgh.
The Browns aren’t any more certain when it comes to the their plan, as Jameis Winston’s been the starting quarterback for four weeks, but the market isn’t favoring them by more than a field goal.
In the end it comes due to schedule “spot,” and the second part of our hypothesis above. Coming off of a crucial win to grab a firm lead in the AFC North against long-time rival Baltimore, going on the road on a short week is asking a lot for the Steelers, who win by getting up for 60 minutes of smash-mouth football. The Browns’ season has been lost, but this should be a game that inspires their best effort - one that was good enough to beat the Ravens at home a few weeks back. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh could drop this game and still have a paved path to division title.
Historically, you want to be backing Mike Tomlin as an underdog, against a rival, coming off a loss, when the market is against them, etc. At their highest estimated market rating all season, none of those factors apply to the Steelers here.
Pick: Browns (+3.5)
Russell Wilson: Longest pass completion - Under 34.5 yards (-115, at Bet365)
Freezing temperatures, snow flurries, and most importantly, non-insignificant amounts of wind, are expected in Cleveland on Thursday night. It’s another reason to like the Browns, since Wilson’s lob passes are going to be harder to control.
Is it tough to throw in Cleveland in the winter? The last time an opposing team completed a pass for more than 30 yards in Cleveland after November 1st, was December 12, 2021.
Darnell Washington: Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110, at Bet365)
Whether the weather is a factor or not, Washington’s becoming more of a factor in the offense by the week. In the last four games he’s either been targeted three times or had a reception of 18+ yards. As a BIG (6’7, 250 lbs) target, Washington provides a large catch radius on a windy night in Cleveland.
Pat Freiermuth: Receptions “ladder”
Bet365: 3+ (+155), 4+ (+400), 5+ (+1000), 6+ (+1700)
It’s a big tight end night (and we’re not done yet), so let’s take a unit and sprinkle it around Freiermuth to rack up some catches in the short-passing game.
Wilson knows he’s out there, having completed 2+ passes to “Muuuuuth” in each of the games he’s played this season. However, he’s had no more than three because weather conditions haven’t suppressed the Steelers average depth of target like they may on Thursday.
The Browns have been without their best coverage linebacker in Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for the last two games. While that wasn’t a factor three weeks ago against the Chargers, the Browns allowed 14 receptions to Saints’ tight ends last week.
Elijah Moore: Over 3.5 receptions (+115, at DraftKings)
Since Winston took over from Deshaun Watson, the Browns have thrown the ball more and with better effectiveness. Shocking, I know.
Between the weather and a low total inspired by the short week, there’s an expectation that offense may be hard to come by, and player prop totals are low across the board. However, if footing is suspect, that may help the offenses.
If you’re looking to put the defense on skates in high winds, get the ball out early and to your shiftiest player. In the three games started by Winston, Elijah Moore’s been targeted 29 times, catching 17 balls. As an already popular target in the slot, Moore should be available on short throws, and at plus-money for four catches, that’s a good bet.
Pat Freiermuth: Anytime touchdown (+450, FanDuel)
Darnell Washington: Anytime touchdown (+1000, FanDuel)
We’ve said all we needed to say about who the highest percentage of throws should go to given the conditions and the matchup.
Nick Chubb: Anytime touchdown (+155, FanDuel)
We’re probably not going to see the explosive version of Chubb this season, since it’s commonly understood that players don’t get back to 100% for almost a year after they come back from reconstructive knee surgery. However, if there’s a goal line play, Chubb’s still the go-to, with his ability to find the crease in the line of scrimmage. At +150 or longer, compared to other No. 1 tailbacks like Najee Harris (+105), there’s value in taking Chubb to score.
David Njoku: Anytime touchdown (+340, FanDuel)
Why not add another tight end to the mix?
If Winston’s going to throw a touchdown, he’ll be looking to the biggest target - one capable of taking an easy throw and barrelling his way down the field and in for a score.
After starting last season without a score in his first six games, after Watson got hurt, Njoku had six touchdowns from October 29th onwards. This season, Njoku didn’t score until Winston took over, and while he hasn’t scored in a couple of games, he’s still better than the 22.7% implied probability that +340 suggests to find the end zone. On a night which may mark the turn to a new season weather-wise, having another tight end in our corral is the play.