TNF: Best bets for Vikings-Rams
Kevin O’Connell meets his former mentor, Sean McVay, for the first time
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Two teams meet on Thursday in the same way as one of the most common social media memes:
Kevin O’Connell and Sean McVay will peel off their Spider-Man masks, and put on the headsets.
Three days after the Rams won Super Bowl LVI, the Vikings swooped in to hire L.A. offensive coordinator, Kevin O’Connell as their new head coach.
It wasn’t the first or last time a champion coordinator would be tabbed to lead another team in need of a refresh, but it is one of the most successful pluckings of the last decade.
In his third season, O’Connell’s now the favorite to win Coach of the Year, but he’s never faced his old team, and former mentor, Sean McVay. Until now.
Vikings @ Rams (+3, 48)
There was a strange occurrence leading into the Rams’ last game.
Los Angeles came out of their bye with a market rating of 50/100 - an average team. Given that they were last seen as a considerably below-average team, we’re responsible for figuring out why.
During the week leading into the game against the Raiders, it was thought that Cooper Kupp would return. That would be reason enough to think the Rams might perform as well as they had since Week 1. Only he didn’t play. The line didn’t drop back down towards the lookahead line of -4.5.
Four days later, and the Rams maintain that league-average rating, only this time it seems certain that Kupp will return. Meanwhile, the Vikings have seen their rating progress throughout the season, finally falling just short of a win and cover last week.
All that adds up to a fair line of Minnesota as a 3-point favorite on the road in L.A. However, each team comes into this game in a different position.
The Vikings just played a knock-down, drag-out, instant classic with the division favorite Lions. Facing Detroit - knee-cap biting and all - takes a lot out of you. Here are the results for every team in their game the week after facing Dan Campbell’s group:
Week 2: Rams lose 41-10 at Cardinals
Week 3: Buccaneers lose 26-7 to Broncos
Week 4: Cardinals lose 42-14 to Commanders
Week 5: Seahawks lose 29-20 to Giants
In each game, the favorite lost to the underdog, by a combined 138-51. Last season, teams were 5-10 ATS in the week after they faced the Lions.
It’s a small sample size, but the Vikings are also on a short week after playing a particularly taxing game.
Offensively, there will be no surprises, as O’Connell has taken the same principles used by the Rams and implemented them in Minnesota.
Los Angeles came out of their bye week healthier on the offensive line, and didn’t give up a touchdown defensively. That challenge will be more difficult this Thursday, but with Kupp back, the Rams have a much better chance of playing to the high side of their play-quality range than Minnesota does.
Pick: Rams (+3)
Aaron Jones: Under 15.5 rush attempts (-115, Bet365)
Going back to our hypothesis that it’s hard to play at your best a week after playing the Lions, let’s see how tailbacks fared in the aforementioned games:
Week 2: Kyren Williams - 12 carries, 25 yards
Week 3: Rachaad White - 6 carries, 17 yards
Week 4: James Conner - 18 carries, 104 yards
Week 5: Kenneth Walker - 5 carries, 19 yards
Shoutout to James Conner for a good statistical game against the Commanders, but there’s reason to believe holes aren’t being created by worn-down offensive lines, at the level they usually are.
A month away from his 30th birthday, Jones is also on the injury report with a hamstring issue. On a short week, with a viable backup, and only two of six games where he’s had more than 15 carries, betting against Jones to have a heavy workload seems like a valuable play.
Tutu Atwell: Under 3.5 receptions (-120, Bet365)
Since the first game after the Rams’ bye week in 2023, Demarcus Robinson has taken the role of third receiver in L.A. When healthy, Robinson’s been on the field for 90% of the snaps on average. He won’t be the odd-man out once the Rams’ receiving corps is fully healthy. On the other side of the field, Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington have battled to be the guy who replaces Puka Nacua.
Big, blocking-capable wide receivers are particularly valuable in Sean McVay’s offense. In the first two games of the season, with Cooper Kupp starting, Tutu Atwell was on the field for six and ten snaps in each game. With Kupp out, Atwell has played at least 43 snaps in each game, with 4+ catches and 50+ yards. However, Kupp is back to take over the role he owns in the slot.
Atwell may see the field on occasion to use his speed in a variety of situations, but he won’t likely be targeted in the same way. As a threat to accumulate yardage on one deep-pass connection, we’ll opt to play against Atwell in the reception market.
Kyren Williams: Over 2.5 receptions (-117, Pinnacle)
The Vikings’ defense is all about confusion and creative blitzing. One way to counter-attack that is by throwing to your tailback, especially if your main runner is of smaller stature, and you don’t want him to stay in and pass protect. Here are Minnesota’s opponents and their running back’s receiving production:
Week 1: Devin Singletary - 4 receptions
Week 2: *Deebo Samuel - 8 receptions
*Without Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers short-receiving outlet is Samuel. Eight receptions was his the most since 2021.
Week 3: Dare Ogunbowale/Cam Akers - 3 receptions
*Joe Mixon was out
Week 4: Josh Jacobs - 4 receptions
Week 5: Breece Hall/Braelon Allen - 4 receptions
Williams has averaged 2.33 receptions per game, so you can see why this number is so low, but the matchup dictates that Williams be more involved in the pass game against a top-5 rush defense.
Demarcus Robinson: Anytime touchdown (+390, Pinnacle)
Tyler Johnson: Anytime touchdown (+657, Pinnacle)
As mentioned above, there should be no concern that Robinson lose any playing time with Kupp back in the fold. Instead, the attention he commands in opposing secondaries should mean that the other receivers should see more man-to-man coverage - something that Brian Flores is comfortable with providing, since he blitzes more than any defensive coordinator in the league.
Johnson and Whittington have each had their chance to fill the shoes of the not-ready-yet Puka Nacua. This week, Whittington seems unlikely to play himself, as he came out of the bye week only to aggravate a shoulder injury against the Raiders. Johnson picked up the slack, catching four of seven passes for 57 yards.
If we think Atwell’s usage goes down with Kupp back and getting all the attention from the Vikings’ secondary, at longer odds than both Atwell and Whittington, there’s value on Johnson to score as a long shot play.