TNF betting: Best bets for Rams-49ers
A Wednesday line move triggers a bet
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Have we jumped the gun on the obituary for the 2024 San Francisco 49ers?
Or…
Is a 319-4 first-half yardage disparity against the Bears more about Chicago’s inability to be ready for a road game without legitimate leadership?
That’s the question we, as bettors, have to ask ourselves going into a Thursday-nighter that feels like the last stand for the home side.
In part, because we know what the Rams are capable of, even if they had a head-scratching slip-up in primetime against the Dolphins.
Rams @ 49ers (-3, 48.5)
In my weekly appearance with Sheldon Alexander on the Clutch Picks Podcast, I talked about the idea that we should exercise patience with this line, and not jump at the Rams at +2.5 (the line as of taping Wednesday morning).
This point spread indicates a pretty significant upgrade in the estimated market rating for the 49ers. The Rams’ win over the Bills moves them up, but San Francisco’s destruction of the Bears moves them up more - back into the 60s (closer to where they were earlier in the season when they were rarely covering spreads).
The reason to wait on a possible line move, is that Trent Williams and/or Nick Bosa may be ruled in for this do-or-die game, at which point, interest in the Niners increases. If they miss another game, there’s still going to be respect for San Francisco in the betting market, and +2.5 should be available anyway. Hours after taping, we saw the line touch 49ers -3, perhaps on the news that Dre Greenlaw is planning on making his season debut.
Why back the Rams? Beyond L.A.’s 6-2 record in their last eight games, Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford’s ability to exploit the opposing defense’s weakness, with their full complement of skill position players (Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua didn’t play in the Rams win over the 49ers earlier this season), means they’re always in the game. The Rams modify their offensive scheme for a familiar opponent, whereas the 49ers run their offensive playbook and assume it’s going to work.
For every San Francisco running back that gets hurt, there are fewer things that they’re capable of doing to bewilder the opposing defense schematically, and when the Niners’ playbook gets shortened, we’ve seen how the offense slows down this season.
Pick: Rams (+3, -110 at Bet365)
Matthew Stafford: Longest pass completion - Under 34.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)
The 49ers’ defense was second in the NFL last year in opponents’ yards per completion. Despite all their injuries this year, only three teams in the league have been better in that category (particularly at home with 8.5 yards per completion), and last week they saw the return of star safety, Talanoa Hufanga, who should be in charge of tightening things up on the back end.
Stafford’s primary weapons - Kupp (2) and Nacua (1) - have just three total receptions of longer than 35 yards this season. With eight “long” pass completions this season, Stafford’s targets are often successful due to all-out blitzes and play-action passes against defenses selling out to the stop the run in short yardage. That’s less likely to be successful against the 49ers’ defense.
Kyren Williams: Under 86.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115 at Bet365)
Williams was 4-2 to the under on this number until the last two games - where the Saints’ terrible run defense (worst in the NFL since Week 6) allowed 104 yards on just 15 carries, and a gameplan that saw the Rams run Williams 29 times (for just 3.0 yards per carry) against the Bills, trying to hang onto a lead.
Thursday’s plan should be to avoid the 49ers’ linebacker-duo of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, as San Francisco held Williams to 3.7 yards per carry in the first matchup. With Kupp and Nacua playing this time around, and the Rams occasionally leaving Williams out of the passing game, it’s worth creating more of a cushion for the under by using the rushing and receiving market.
Deebo Samuel: Longest reception - Over 21.5 yards (-115 at Bet365)
In the first seven games where Samuel was healthy (he played four snaps in the “pneumonia” game vs. K.C.), Deebo caught a pass of 25+ yards in six of them, but it’s been four straight games since Samuel was able to create an explosive play.
One of those games was in a snowstorm in Buffalo and the other came without Purdy at the helm.
Samuel had a social media faux-pas this week, posting that he’s “not struggling, just not getting the ball!”. Which is true, because of the two situations above, and not being needed in a blowout last week.
In a big game, with Purdy healthy enough to play, and passing conditions optimal, against a team that allows the second-fewest yards per pass attempt, Samuel is likely to get back to his explosive self, as the squeaky wheel gets the grease, and Deebo can make it worth the trouble.
Cooper Kupp: Anytime touchdown (+145, DraftKings)
Dating back to last season, Kupp has scored in nine of the last 15 (60%) games he’s started, for an implied fair anytime touchdown odds of -150. Kupp missed the first matchup this season, but when healthy, he’s seen at least six targets in every game this season. While Puka Nacua has taken over the role of rushing threat on jet sweeps, if the Rams have done any self-scouting and want to switch things up, Kupp may be an option there as well near the goal line.
Jauan Jennings: Anytime touchdown (+162, Bet365)
Jennings exploded in the first matchup, scoring three times on 11 receptions, showing that the long-time depth player can fill in admirably as a top-tier target for Brock Purdy. He was replacing Deebo Samuel in that game, but was back to backup the next few games and then missed a month with injury.
When Jennings came back, Brandon Aiyuk was already lost for the season, and a high-profile role was Jennings’ again. In five games since, Purdy missed a game, the 49ers’ passing game struggled in the Buffalo snow, but in the other three games, Jennings has seen 30 targets and scored in two of those games (3 total TD).
Ke’Shawn Vaughn: Anytime touchdown (+350, DraftKings)
Israel Abanikanda: Anytime touchdown (+500, DraftKings)
Kyle Juszczyk: Anytime touchdown (+850, FanDuel)
Last we looked, Isaac Guerendo is next up in the category of 49ers’ tailback injuries, as a foot sprain has him “trending down” on a short week.
In the spirit of the holiday season, let’s do some shopping for best prices on 49ers other than Patrick Taylor to score a touchdown, spreading a unit around on it. Taylor played 20 snaps last week, effectively doubling his usage for the season, but a long rush of just seven yards and only 25 yards on seven carries doesn’t mean he’s definitively set for No. 1 snaps, not to mention the goal-line trust of Kyle Shanahan.
Figuring out who gets the first-string carries for the 49ers is anybody’s guess, which is why shopping for long prices on Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Israel Abanikanda is worth it. Meanwhile, when the 49ers get near the goal line they might be more likely to trust a veteran like Kyle Juszczyk. The multi-faceted fullback also could score via the passing game, making him worth adding to this group.