It’s been a busy summer… sorta.
In the first week of June, I was told by my former employer that betting expertise was no longer needed. A decision made on high by a person I’ve never met. This came just weeks after a glowing annual performance review, and days after being encouraged to get my HR-required “goals” in for the coming year.
As if there’s ever a time when all my goals aren’t “win more bets”.
Three years after a “summer vacation” that landed me a dream role at a local company that I long respected under original ownership, I was given another hiatus, without much in the way of explanation. My golf handicap is flirting with single digits, and I broke 80 for the first time… so we got that going for us… which is nice.
I’m not big on grand pronouncements on social media, unless it’s letting you know where you can find my content. For this recent circumstance, it didn’t seem necessary to tell you where you CAN’T find my stuff any longer.
For those who haven’t been riding since the “early days,” here’s a quick overview of my bona fides:
2011: First entered the Las Vegas WestGate Supercontest, before there even was a Circa Resort to host the current biggest-money contests on the block, and when the biggest contest had fewer than 1000 entrants
2014: Finished T-16 out of 1400+ entrants
2019: Finished T-35 out of 3000+ entrants
2020: Decided to turn on the mic before Super Bowl LIV, creating “The Window: Sports Betting Podcast”
2021: After 300+ episodes of the podcast, and writing hockey articles for The Action Network, I was hired as a betting writer for theScore. Unfortunately, I had to abandon the podcast. Instead, regularly appearing on various others (DRF Sports Betting podcast, Clutch Picks podcast, Edge Work, and more), while rising to the Lead Betting Analyst role.
If you have been following along lately, you know that for the last three years, I’ve been very profitable for my readers in betting the NFL, College Football, March Madness, and Stanley Cup Playoffs, along with some NBA (remember the 2023 Nuggets futures?!) and PGA Golf (Rahm’s Masters, Smith’s Players, Fitzpatrick’s U.S. Open). We’ve also suffered some catastrophic bad beats as we “celebrate and commiserate” together.
While it’s been a somewhat quiet couple months for what I do best, you likely have noticed that my byline is no longer featured where it once was. As a result, many have asked “where can I find your stuff this season?”.
This initial post has been a long-winded way of saying “here.”
At least for now.
Along with all the content you (hopefully) relied on these last few years - NFL market report, the RUMP, TNF best bets, MNF best bets, Player Props, best bets and betting guides - guess what?
The podcast is BACK too.
All of this will be free sports betting content (though “Pledges” will eventually be turned on and welcome).
At least for now.
I always try to be transparent with this loyal community. Despite one guy’s opinion, my content does have value. Ideally, a company comes along and pays for that content so you don’t have to. If they don’t, eventually, you may. At which point, the market will dictate whether my insights are worth a couple bucks per week to you.
Expectations
Wherever this road leads us, it’s important to note that no guarantees are being made. I’m an advocate for responsible game, which is why we’ve never used words like “lock” around these parts. Whether it’s at a cost of time or money, what I’m selling is the shared experience of the entertainment that betting adds to the games we watch, and hopefully some enjoyable reads for you to pass the time. I can only promise that I’m betting everything with you along the way.
You might not be familiar with Substack, but one of its best features is that when an article is published, you get it emailed to you in the form of a newsletter. This is better than an article being published… maybe a few hours later someone sends an alert you may or may not have signed up for… and maybe the best number is gone by the time you can bet it.
As a bonus, I have the added freedom here of being able to cite specific sportsbooks offering the best odds on a bet or have a market available.
Important closing notes:
Unless otherwise explicitly noted, none of the bets should be a parlayed
That’s the fastest way to screw up your bankroll
Whatever your bankroll, each bet should account for 1%-2% of it
Good bettors don’t chase at the end of the night or weekend, they just do better the next week
I recommend a bankroll of $3000-$5000
Spread out over at least five sportsbooks, to give yourself the best chance at being profitable
If that sounds like a lot, maybe double-check whether you have can afford to lose money betting
This sets up a bet unit of $22-$66 which is more than enough to entertain you on a Monday night, while a bad NFL Sunday stings but doesn’t break the bankroll
DO hit me up with any questions
Things you’d like to see in this space
Bets (derivative angles, player props, etc.) you think there might be an edge in
DON’T hit me up because we lost a bet.
They’re going to happen
The goal is to hit 54% (or better) of all the -110 bets we make
Which means we’ll lose 46 out of every 100, and 460 out of every 1000
As always, this is a positive vibes only locale, where the hot streaks and big wins will outweigh those losses
Thanks for subscribing.
Welcome aboard this latest venture, and being a part of betting’s best kept secret in #OurLittleCornerOfTheInternet.
Your participation is not taken for granted.
Welcome back, just in time can’t wait for the first guilty pleasure of round robin parlay!😃
Looking forward to reading your stuff Matt. Glad you found this outlet