THE WINDOW: Sports betting w/ Matt Russell
THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast
WHAT DOES “LUCK” LOOK LIKE? (5.26.25)
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WHAT DOES “LUCK” LOOK LIKE? (5.26.25)

Yes, the Stanley Cup Conference Finals’ advanced metrics will make you sad

On Monday’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) does a deep dive into the second and third games of the Stanley Cup Playoffs’ Conference Finals.

While the scoreboard looks lopsided for all of them, which games have told a different story than their results?

Carolina’s previously excellent goaltending has, all of a sudden, had more than just five holes:

Are the Panthers overwhelming the Hurricanes with their forecheck, or are they just doing a better job of converting the occasional chance that it creates?

Also, was there any way to know the Panthers’ defenseman would be the offensive threat they’ve managed to be?


Maybe you missed it?


The big question: What does luck look like?

Matt discusses why the eye test is important in evaluating these games beyond the metrics, as Stuart Skinner’s performance continues to vacillate, the Oilers get all the breaks in a Game 2 and 3 (in a sport loaded with them), and why Jake Oettinger’s track record is enough to stave off worry about a bad game.

Sam Bennett’s stock is up since we added him to the Conn Smythe portfolio, is there anyone else worth adding into that mix?

Plus, why is the NBA so hard to bet on? After some successful live-betting in each Game 2, Matt looks at the results from Game 3 of Knicks-Pacers and Thunder-Timberwolves, and how the market’s reacted in the lines for Game 4.

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB, CBB, NHL and more.

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