CBB Conference Tournaments: Best bets for Wednesday, March 5th
More Fun Belt, and four more tourneys tip off
The twist in conference tournament betting is that it reveals what type of people we are.
We’re supposed to feel bad for the team whose season has just abruptly ended, but on Tuesday night, two scenarios played out where we might have walked away, putting the game behind us like we were The Joker leaving some wreckage in The Dark Knight.
Coastal Carolina couldn’t score more than two points in the final 3:10, and coughed up a 5-point lead to lose to Southern Miss. Our reaction to a push? “Serves them right, don’t let the door hit you on the way back to Myrtle Beach.”
Holy Cross (+6.5) has a catastrophic finish in their defeat:
Our reaction? “Tough for them but at least we won.”
Hopefully we’re not creating negative karma that leads to Louisiana (-5.5) spending their entire game up four points, never able to stretch it to six, or Indianapolis (+9) taking us on this sad ride:
A 2-3-1 would have been 4-2 if we had only bet the first-half line, so as we move on to Wednesday, as four more tournaments commence, we’re looking to hand out coffee to more closers, after only Loyola-Maryland was able to finish strong last night.
New tournaments starting:
Northeast Conference
Big South
Summit League
Ohio ValleyBest bets
Sun Belt
(12) Southern Miss vs. (9) Georgia Southern (-5.5, 148.5)
“Quick” projection: Georgia Southern (-3.7)
While last night’s bet was on Coastal Carolina, it was more of a fade of Southern Miss that was aided by Coastal’s ability to make three pointers at a decent rate (36.1% on the season). However, the Chanticleers didn’t just let the Golden Eagles off the hook with their finish, it was only a game because the Chants shot 23% (6/26) from deep.
Southern Miss didn’t do anything to earn a change in our general opinion - that they’re a bad basketball team not long for this tournament. So, we’ll roll the ball back out there with another fade of USM with Georgia Southern - a team that profiles similarly to Coastal Carolina. If the (regular) Eagles can shoot anywhere near their 35.8% rate from three, they should win comfortably, which the Chanticleers probably should have.
Pick: Georgia Southern (-5.5)
(11) UL-Louisiana vs. (10) Old Dominion (-2.5, 135.5)
“Quick” projection: Old Dominion (-0.9)
Louisiana’s top-ranked 3-point defense failed them against Monroe (7/17) and the Warhawks were able to get to the line to make up for the Ragin’ Cajuns out-attempting them. Old Dominion finished dead last in the conference with an abysmal 27.6% rate from deep, so while I’m concerned about Louisiana’s inability to rebound, which may have burned them in the lone meeting with the Monarchs back in early January, getting a game under their belt in Pensacola is positive against a team that’s basically their equal.
Pick: Louisiana (+2.5)
Northeast Conference
(8) Le Moyne @ (1) Central Connecticut (-13.5, 144.5)
“Quick” projection: Central Connecticut (-14)
Le Moyne was just in New Britain last week, and (like most Dolphins’ games this season) they didn’t win, but, like all their games down the stretch, they acquitted themselves nicely. After wins over Wagner and Chicago State, Le Moyne was tied with 12 minutes to go against Long Island and in a one-possession game later than that against Central Connecticut.
The close game with the Blue Devils was no fluke, as Le Moyne hung tough on the boards and had their usual good (league-leading) 3-point shooting. CCSU has won 12 straight to capture the regular season title, and stretch the line up from the -12.5 it was last week.
Pick: Le Moyne (+13.5)
(5) Stonehill @ (4) Fairleigh-Dickinson (-3, 141.5)
“Quick” projection: Fairleigh-Dickinson (-2.3)
I don’t want to rely on a singular player to win three games in a row, including road games against a better team, but in small-conference games, at home, and one team has someone as electric as Terrence Brown, I’ll take that team to beat a largely non-description Stonehill team. Of course, it helps that the Knights have handled the Skyhawks twice this season with Brown scoring 25 and 23 points in each game.
Pick: Fairleigh-Dickinson (-3)
Big South
(9) South Carolina - Upstate vs. (8) Gardner-Webb (-5.5, 157.5)
“Quick” projection: Gardner-Webb (-4.5)
There are few things that make less sense than starting your tournament with a single, 8-9 game, but we get a look at whoever will be blown out by High Point on Thursday.
Good news for Upstate: Gardner-Webb can’t shoot (31.3% from three), which means there should be plenty of rebounds.
Bad news for Upstate: They’re not any good at rebounding, with a league-worst rebounding margin of -7.4.
Gardner-Webb has a positive rebounding margin, and frankly, Upstate (32.8%) isn’t much better from three. Case in point, the Bulldogs out-rebounded the Spartans by 9 and 12 in the two matchups and scored 96 and 97 points in comfy wins without shooting the lights out.
Pick: Gardner-Webb (-5.5)
Summit League
(9) Oral Roberts vs. (8) UMKC (-6.5, 137.5)
“Quick” projection: UMKC (-0.7)
Bluntly, I’m not sure what Kansas City did to deserve being a favorite of any real consequence.
The Golden Eagles were without senior forward Sam Alajiki in the first meeting, as the not-exactly-prototypical Irishman missed six weeks, including the first half of the Summit League season. Once he got back up to speed, and could play 30+ minutes, Oral Roberts tasted a little more success. Especially since freshman JoJo Moore was forced into a bigger role with Alajiki out.
With a better chance to stay competitive on the glass than the numbers suggest, and UMKC not a threat to get hot from deep, this is more of a toss-up than the line offered up.
Pick: Oral Roberts (+6.5)
Ohio Valley Conference
(8) Tennessee-Martin vs. (5) Tennessee Tech (+1, 143.5)
“Quick” projection: Tennessee-Martin (-0.9)
Will Tennessee Tech’s good 3-point defense be the difference in one of two virtual pick’em games in the first round of the OVC? Because that’s the only particularly good trait for either team. You could make the case that holding Martin to 25.6% and 30.3% shooting was the key in each of their wins, but both games between these two went to overtime.
You’re on your own for Morehead-Lindenwood for both the puns and a bet, but for the 8-5 matchup we’ll take the side which barely made the tournament, but who still opened as the favorite. That’s because they have a difference-maker in Tarence Guinyard, and in a one-game scenario between two evenly matched teams, the all-conference star can be the difference late. Don’t expect him to be held to 3/16 from three, the way he was in both OT games against Tech.
Pick: UT-Martin (-1)
Futures
Northeast Conference: Long Island (+370, Draft Kings)
There are no such things as safe bets in college basketball, so, as much as Central Connecticut dominated the regular season, -210 to win a tournament is a steep price for just about anyone.
If there wasn’t a clear-cut alternative, we’d simply pass, but it’s entirely possible 12-4 Long Island was heading for a similar season to the 14-2 Blue Devils. After all, the Sharks came away from New Britain as the only NEC visitor to win there. However, in their next game, senior point guard Terell Strickland was injured, and while they survived that one against St. Francis, they lost the rematch and also went 1-1 in two overtime games with Mercyhurst. Strickland came back in time to come off the bench against CCSU but his team-high 19 points weren’t enough in the rematch.
Had the now-healthy Strickland been so all season, home-court in the NEC tournament might have gone through Brooklyn. Hopefully, it doesn’t end up mattering, and the Sharks can replicate what they’ve already pulled off - a road win over the Blue Devils at a decent underdog price.
Summit League: North Dakota State (+260, DraftKings)
Omaha grabbing the regular season Summit title was a surprise, as evidenced by the fact that they were a 12.5-point underdog when they stormed back from 10 points down for an upset win at North Dakota State on January 4th. The Mavericks were again an underdog (+1.5) in the rematch, but an 11-point win was much closer than the scoreboard suggests. On a neutral site, the Bison might actually be a small favorite for a potential semi-final matchup.
If you included non-conference games, the 4-seed is the best shooting team in the Summit League (39.6%). Most importantly, they shoot a ton of them, making 11.6 per game, with all six players who average 20+ minutes shooting better than 37% from deep. If it all sounds too good to be true, maybe it is? Since the Bison might be without the Summit’s best pro prospect, maybe ever. 6’10 Jacksen Moni (20.7 PPG) missed the regular season finale with a mystery injury, and no one’s willing to let on whether he’ll be available at all this week. However, even though they have enough offense to make up for Moni’s potential loss, we’ll hope North Dakota State is just playing coy.
Ohio Valley: Little Rock (+500, DraftKings)
Southeast Missouri (+150) was picked to finish seventh in the OVC before the year, but a 15-5 record was good enough to take the regular season title with ease. They excel at defending the 3-point, have a pair of big-time scorers, and have the short path on the linear tournament bracket. However, there are more than a few good teams in the conference.
Little Rock was picked to win the conference but there was something missing during the regular season as there was always something that cropped up to beat them - a bad shooting night (for the best shooting team in the conference) against Morehead and Eastern Illinois, getting jumped on early on the road at Tennessee State, Eastern Illinois and Edwardsville - but with four players averaging double-digits scoring, the talent is still there for the Trojans.
They’re 5-to-1 because they have to play an extra game than SEMO and SIUE, but with so many players capable of being “the guy” on any given night (and not having to deal with pesky EIU), Little Rock is a good value bet to get by Southeast Missouri and into the OVC Final.
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