CBB Conference Tournaments: Best bets for Thursday, March 6th
A busy night, with the Missouri Valley and West Coast Conference tips
There’s nothing more quaint during conference tournaments than the NEC. You can watch on something called NECfrontrow.com. Games are played in actual gyms, on courts with a running track that goes around it, and a giant curtain in the background semi-blocking your view of the extra chairs available, just in case there’s an assembly tomorrow.
We split the NEC games bet on Wednesday (for a 4-3 night overall) but the two games that we passed on are worth mentioning.
While we have high hopes for Long Island, the “Quicks projection” for their game was -9.9, so when the line was set at -12.5, that was too far for a play on the Sharks. That looked like a mistake when they were up 21 with eight minutes to go. However, Chicago State stormed back to lose by 11, legitimizing our pass, even if LIU was the right side.
In Wagner-St. Francis, I had the write-up all done for a bet on Wagner +4.5. While the projection was -5.6, the matchup suggested taking the points. Then the line changed. By the time we went to post, enough money had come in on the Seahawks to bring the line down to -2.5, just low enough for St. Francis to eventually cover in a 3-point win.
It’s a reminder that there’s success in not betting a game if you’re not getting the price you’re willing to pay. But you also need to have an idea of what that price looks like. Drawing the line at LIU -10/-10.5 and Wagner +3/3.5 was the key to a profitable night, even more than the games we actually bet.
New tournaments starting:
Missouri Valley Conference
West Coast ConferenceBest bets
ASUN
(4) Jacksonville @ (2) North Alabama (-5.5, 143.5)
“Quick” projection: North Alabama (-6.8)
If you tuned into THE WINDOW podcast on Monday, you know we’ve taken a flier on the Dolphins at 15-1 as the long-shot champion in the ASUN. Jacksonville will likely need a pair of big upsets, but if their trip to Florence is merely a close-but-not-quite situation, we can at least make back our original investment.
The Dolphins lost their last trip to North Alabama by 13 when the Lions went to the free-throw line an impossible 30 times. They were out-rebounded by 11 that night - an outlier result for two teams with a similar rebounding margin. Earlier this season, in Jacksonville, rebounds were even and the free-throws were “just” 18-9 for the Lions. With that recipe, the Dolphins had a 6-point lead late, but coughed that up.
North Alabama just gave everything they had in a game that felt personal against Austin Peay. If Jacksonville can maintain physicality with an even whistle, they have a shot for an upset.
Pick: Jacksonville (+5.5)
Patriot League
(8) Loyola-Maryland @ (1) Bucknell (-7.5, 138.5)
“Quick” projection: Bucknell (-9)
Loyola got the job done for us, eventually closing out a win at over Lehigh to advance to the second round, but going on the road to take on Bucknell is a way tougher task. The Bison rebound and they shoot, while having a certified bucket-getter in a pinch with Noah Williamson. Although, that’s unlikely to matter in a game they should win pretty easily.
Bucknell out-rebounded Loyola in both matchups this season, and whether the games were close or not came down to whether Bucknell (39.6% from three in Patriot League play) made their outside shots. They made just 3-of-12 on the road in a 3-point win, and 11-of-21 in a comfortable home win.
We’re assuming the shots go down at a more commensurate rate at home, and the Bison win and cover.
Pick: Bucknell (-7, -115 at Bet365)
(7) Lafayette @ (2) American (-4, 129.5)
“Quick” projection: American (-6)
The Leopards escaped the first round, with a minor miracle late against Holy Cross - a team that, despite its last-place finish, Lafayette had already struggled with, a few weeks ago. Against American though, the Leopards had a lead with less than two minutes to go in a 7-point loss, and then lost on a virtual buzzer-beater in DC in the rematch.
American finished the season tied with Bucknell atop the Patriot League standings but, had those games, and/or their five one-possession losses, gone differently, Lafayette might be considered the second-best team in the conference, or close to it.
Pick: Lafayette (+4)
(6) Army @ (3) Colgate (-7.5, 148.5)
“Quick” projection: Colgate (-7.3)
Colgate head coach Matt Langel got used to cruising to the Patriot League title, with five straight trips to the NCAA Tournament, as he became one of the most frequently cited examples of someone due for a promotion to a bigger job. Then the Raiders had THIS season - a 10-8 record that put them in the second-tier of the league.
Is an 18-game sample size - that really came down to a rough 4-game stretch - enough to make us believe that Colgate has taken a step back as a program? After all, they were the preseason pick to win the league again, despite not having anyone on the preseason first-team.
The Raiders can still shoot from deep, and their porous 3-point defense should have gotten some attention this week after American made 12 in the regular season finale, handing Colgate their second home loss of the conference season. Meanwhile, Army can’t shoot or rebound (last in the conference in both categories), so the chances for a blowout are high if Colgate shows up at full attention.
Pick: Colgate (-7.5)
Summit League
(8) UMKC vs. (1) Nebraska-Omaha (-3, 140.5)
“Quick” projection: Omaha (-5.9)
Omaha breaks through the Dakota wall in the Summit League for a regular season title and all it gets them is a first round matchup as just a 3-point favorite against the 8-seed? Welcome to mid-major conferences.
The Mavericks shot 40% from three in league play this season and dispatched the Roos by 19 and 12 points during the regular season, so Kansas City’s top-ranked 3-point defense didn’t help them there. With no evident injuries to factor in, we’ll follow our projection and trust the league champions to not get stunned in their first tournament game.
Pick: Omaha (-3)
(7) Denver vs. (2) St. Thomas (-10, 143.5)
“Quick” projection: St. Thomas (-13.6)
The start of the Summit League season was rough for Denver, the schedule put them on the road to the perennially good South Dakota teams, and then bad luck struck with star guard Deandre Craig getting hurt, missing three games, only to return for a visit to St. Thomas. All of a sudden, the Pioneers were 0-6. Once they regrouped, Denver went a respectable 5-5 the rest of the way, with competitive, single-digit losses against the peak of the Summit - Omaha, South Dakota, St. Thomas and North Dakota State.
This line, near our projection, is based on a season’s worth of results, but a little research tells us that Denver’s default capabilities are that of a team that can keep this game respectable.
Pick: Denver (+10)
Horizon League
(8) Wright St. @ (1) Robert Morris (-6.5, 149.5)
“Quick” projection: Robert Morris (-4.9)
Wright State got down big to Indianapolis in the first half, but much to our chagrin, they reversed things and ran the Jaguars out of the gym, winning by double digits. This wasn’t out of the realm of possibility, since Wright State is better than your average conference 8-seed. At least, that’s what we’re banking on by taking the points here.
Robert Morris falls into the category of regular season league champion was more solid than dominant statistically. For example, Wright State hung with RoMo this season losing by three points in Moon Township, and were the only team to beat the Colonials in the last two months.
The Horizon League regularly sees the chalk go down even with home sites for the early rounds, and an upset here wouldn’t be much of a surprise.
Pick: Wright St (+6.5)
(7) Northern Kentucky @ (2) Cleveland St. (-4.5, 136.5)
“Quick” projection: Cleveland St (-6.2)
Two basic components to this handicap:
Macro - Everything stated above in the 8/1 matchup also applies to this 7/2 game
Micro - Northern Kentucky is coming in hot, with an 8-2 finish to the season
Regarding the latter, NKU’s two losses came in a close loss to Robert Morris and a convincing win by Milwaukee (our pick to win the Horizon tournament, so we won’t hold that against them too much).
Pick: Northern Kentucky (+4.5)
(6) Oakland @ (3) Milwaukee (-6.5, 144.5)
“Quick” projection: Milwaukee (-6.7)
Speaking of our hopeful future champ, there’s a reason we’re on Milwaukee, and it would be odd if we thought they’d struggle to vanquish Oakland. Last year’s Golden Grizzlies had the combination of Trey Townsend (now at Arizona) and Jack Gohlke, shooting them into the NCAA Tournament and the Sweet 16, but they’re both gone. Now Oakland doesn’t shoot well or defend the three, so an OK shooting Panther team should get more open looks than they’re used to.
Pick: Milwaukee (-6.5)
Ohio Valley
(6) Lindenwood vs. (3) Tennessee St (-4, 146)
“Quick” projection: Tennessee St (-4.5)
When it comes to our key stats, Lindenwood was just as bad as Morehead this season, which kept that matchup off our card on Wednesday night. The key word there being “bad.” If they were evenly matched as teams capable of making noise in the OVC Tournament, that would be another thing. I have no explanation for how the Lions stormed back to win after being down nine at halftime, as they made all of ONE 3-pointer. You might point to Lindenwood going 28/28 from the free-throw line, which was quite an outlier for the worst FT shooting team in the conference. They won’t be able to re-create that against a much better team Thursday.
Tennessee State led the OVC in rebounding margin, so they should generate more possessions, something that won’t be made up for by a bad shooting Lindenwood squad.
Pick: Tennessee State (-4)
Sun Belt
(10) Old Dominion vs. (7) Texas St (-5, 142.5)
“Quick” projection: Texas St (-6.2)
We thought Louisiana had a solid chance to beat Old Dominion, and, well, they did not. However, the Bobcats are a different animal (in that they ARE an animal).
Tylan Pope and a Texas State group that led the Sun Belt in 3-point shooting (compared to the league-worst Monarchs) are better than their 9-9 conference record.
ODU won the regular season matchup in Norfolk with two boxscore outliers:
Texas State made just five of their 17 3-point attempts
Old Dominion won the glass 45-27, shooting 14 more free throws
That second point is unusual since these two teams had the same season-long rebound margin.
It’s a long trip from San Marcos to Virginia, so we’ll chalk the above up to a low-end performance from Texas State in early February, but even with this odd boxscore, it was still a 2-point game with under seven minutes to go.
With a fresh outlook and the rest advantage for this neutral site game, the Bobcats get their revenge with a comfortable win.
Pick: Texas St (-5)
(9) Georgia Southern vs. (8) Georgia St (+2.5, 152)
“Quick” projection: Georgia Southern (-0.1)
I have to admit - I’m surprised Georgia Southern is the favorite here. The Eagles shoot the ball well, but the Panthers do it better, led by star Cesare Edwards (one of four on Georgia State to average double-digits in scoring).
Georgia Southern took the only matchup, in the regular season finale, but that game was a true toss up, as it was tied with less than a minute to go. That result is in line with our projection, but since we’re getting points in the rematch, we have to roll with the Panthers.
Pick: Georgia State (+2.5)
Missouri Valley Conference
(9) Indiana St vs. (8) Southern Illinois (PK, 158.5)
“Quick” projection: Southern Illinois (-0.6)
How much does one game matter to the betting market?
For five minutes, Indiana State basically went blackout turning a 28-23 lead over Southern Illinois into a 50-28 game, at home, in the regular season finale. Despite the blowout, the Sycamores went from -2.5 at home to opening as an underdog here on a neutral for Thursday’s matinee.
Neither team excels at anything we value in a matchup, but the Salukis boast Ali Dibba and Kennard Davis, who each average better than 16 points per game. They were neutralized by a complete lack of defense, as Indiana State shot almost 60% on Sunday - way higher than the 45% Southern Illinois allowed this season.
On a neutral site, look for SIU to make the necessary adjustments to balance things out, without a massive run mid-game, and the Salukis get the win thanks to late scoring from their dynamic duo.
Pick: Southern Illinois (-110 ML)
(12) Missouri St vs. (5) Illinois St (-5.5, 134.5)
“Quick” projection: Illinois St (-6.9)
Sunday’s games were so bizarre that Missouri State almost beat Drake on Sunday.
Or maybe it wasn’t all that weird. Every March a couple teams that couldn’t do anything all season pull of a surprise or two in their conference tournament, and the 2-18 Bears may have built some confidence to be that team during that overtime loss.
It may help that the Redbirds have the worst 3-point defense in the league and Missouri State actually shoots it OK. The Bears made 44% and 35% of their threes in each of the matchups this season - both ATS covers for the Bears.
A betting market that projects this line close to -7 has overrated the Redbirds lately, as they finished the season 1-5 ATS, while the Bears were 5-1 against the spread in that time.
Pick: Missouri St (+5.5)
(10) Evansville vs. (7) Murray St (-5.5, 130.5)
“Quick” projection: Murray St (-8.0)
It’s a matchup between the two worst-shooting teams in the Valley, but at least Evansville’s done a decent job defending the three (tied with Bradley for the league lead). That should limit the chances of a freak shooting night for the Racers.
They split the matchups this season in a pair of close games. The Aces could have stolen a win at Murray State had they shot any better than a paltry 4/19 from three and 7/12 from the free-throw line. While Evansville’s win at home required a big shooting night, with a spread this high, we don’t need the Aces to have that up their sleeve.
Pick: Evansville (+5.5)
(11) Valparaiso vs. (6) Illinois-Chicago (-3.5, 152.5)
“Quick” projection: UIC (-4.6)
Sometimes not being good at anything is enough, just so long as you’re not bad at everything.
Valparaiso can’t shoot (33%) and don’t rebound well (league-worst margin of -4.9), so while UIC is thoroughly mid across the board, the Beacons might be the actual worst team in the Valley, considering they spent the back-half of the season giving up 70 points or more to everyone except 2-win Missouri State.
Valpo (+6.5) backdoored a cover with a 4-point loss in the regular season finale, but if they trail by 17 points again, we’ll expect them to not have the same luck on Thursday night.
Pick: Illinois-Chicago (-3.5)
West Coast Conference
(11) San Diego vs. (10) Pacific (-1.5, 145.5)
“Quick” projection: Pacific (-1.3)
We won’t over-complicate the WCC opener.
San Diego was the worst shooting team in the conference and, if it wasn’t for Loyola Marymount, the Toreros might have been the worst rebounding team as well. Even worse, with the emergence of UCSD in the Big West, they’re not even the second-best team in San Diego County. Like Baxter eating the whole wheel of cheese in Anchorman, I’m actually impressed San Diego went 2-16 with a 16-game losing streak in the WCC this season.
Meanwhile, Pacific - not exactly lighting it up this season - at least has Torontian Elijah Fisher, who leads a trio of Tiger scorers that are more dangerous than anyone USD has since they lost their only double-digit scorer, Kjay Bradley Jr, in mid-January, and hadn’t won until nipping Portland at home in the regular season finale.
Pacific should finish the season on a positive note with a win and a second game in Vegas. Meanwhile, in Spanish, San Diego Toreros means “another disastrous hoops season.”
Pick: Pacific (-1.5)
Futures:
Missouri Valley Conference: Bradley (+340, DraftKings)
Drake’s got the Conference Player of the Year, they take care of the ball and they out-rebound opponents to create more possessions for themselves. They also shoot the three pretty well, and defend it decently too. Oh, and the Bulldogs finished the season 15-1. So, yeah, Drake’s really good, and should have a place in the NCAA Tournament regardless of how they do in “Arch Madness.”
At -115 to win the tournament this weekend, Drake’s lack of necessity and the fact that the No. 1 seed doesn’t get a beneficial path to the title game, means we can’t just lay it with the favorite and expect them to win three tough games in three days. The winner of the 8/9 is capable of causing problems, and a semifinal matchup with either Belmont or Illinois State isn’t the picnic a projected point spread suggests.
Instead, we’ll take Bradley - the lone team to beat Drake (outside of Kendrick Lamar) in the last two months.
The Braves shoot the three even better than the Bulldogs, and the bottom half of the bracket appears to provide a smoother path, with Northern Iowa as the 3-seed, who Bradley just blew out on Sunday.
The goal is to get Bradley to the championship game and hope Drake isn’t there, but even if the Bulldogs hold up their end of the bargain, the Braves have a shot to pull off the upset.
West Coast Conference: Saint Mary’s (+155, FanDuel)
Stay with me - if Saint Mary’s was Gonzaga, the Gaels’ odds would be more like the Bulldogs’ odds back when Gonzaga was Gonzaga. However, THIS season, Gonzaga is not the Gonzaga we know from previous years, while Saint Mary’s IS the Saint Mary’s we’re familiar with, only since Gonzaga isn’t Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s is now Gonzaga - the favorite in the West Coast Conference tournament. But the Gaels are not odds-on favorites the way the Bulldogs have been when they were the top seed in Las Vegas the last few years. Got it? Good.
There’s value on the Gaels, who swept Gonzaga, and whose one WCC blemish this season was a one-point loss at San Francisco, when they let a 10-point second half lead slip and missed a game-winning three that might have set them up for an undefeated conference season. Unlike Drake, the linear bracket in the WCC sets up Saint Mary’s to have to win only two games, and they will face just one of the Dons or Zags in the final. The odds are this good only because the advanced metrics are so gaga for Gonzaga, but the Gaels have shown they’re the better team on the court.
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