CBB Conference Tournaments: Best bets for Saturday, March 8th
A loaded slate with a first ticket to the Big Dance to go out
Everyone’s got a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
Or in the case of South Dakota State, Treyson Eaglestaff hangs 51 on your head, for the fourth-most points in the history of all conference tournaments.
Friday night’s game were like a high-end fashion show, only instead of lithe supermodels coming down the runway, it was second-half collapses strutting their stuff, including the Jackrabbits second half:
Oh, you think that was a provocative outfit? How about this:
Oh, but have you seen the latest spring trends?
Wait, is that Gisele? No? Just the Portland Pilots:
So, while we can come up with an angle of why one team might have an edge in a matchup, once the ball is rolled onto the court, even if that edge works for 20 or 30 minutes, you still need to make it backstage without falling off the catwalk to cash a bet.
New tournaments starting:
America East
Big SkyBest bets
OVC Final
(2) SIU-Edwardsville vs. (1) Southeast Missouri St (-2.5, 135.5)
“Quick” projection: SEMO (-1.7)
As designed with the linear bracket, the chalk held up in the OVC.
SEMO cruised past Little Rock, as they deployed the rarely-used strategy of “make no shots” (2/12 from three for the best shooting team in the tournament) AND “have two starters foul out as early as possible.” So, while it’s easy to look at the Redhawks win as the more dominant, the Cougars win over Tennessee State might be more impressive as they had to fend off a charge late.
Edwardsville did have to expend more energy though, and that could be problematic against a SEMO team that’s handled them in both meetings, holding Ray’sean Taylor (the OVC’s leading scorer) to just 16 points in the first matchup and then late in the season when Taylor got loose for 30 points SEMO won just as comfortably.
The Redhawks’ 3-point defense (tops in the OVC) shut down the Cougars from deep this season (10/39) in the same way they asphyxiated Little Rock last night. That can’t be coincidence and will likely be the reason they make it the NCAA Tournament for the second time in two years.
Pick: Southeast Missouri State (-2.5)
Missouri Valley
(4) Belmont vs. (1) Drake (-8.5, 131.5)
“Quick” projection: Drake (-7.7)
Ok, here’s our chance for Bradley (god-willing they make it) to not have to face Drake in Sunday’s “Arch Madness” title game.
Admittedly, there’s some blind faith that the conference’s best 3-point shooting team might be able to replicate Friday’s barrage of Illinois State when they took a 41-18 lead into the half. But wait, Belmont only hit five their first 19 threes and still handled the Redbirds comfortably, not needing our requirement of shooting 40% from deep. Maybe they’re saving that for Drake?
The Bruins never got their shot at the Bulldogs at home in Nashville, with their only meeting coming way back in early January. If they can contain Bennett Stirtz and compete on the glass, Belmont may score the upset, or at least make it interesting enough to cover.
Pick: Belmont (+8.5)
Summit League
(5) South Dakota vs. (1) Nebraska-Omaha (-5, 165.5)
“Quick” projection: Omaha (-3.3)
It sounded like a good idea - taking North Dakota State at such a short price after Jacksen Moni’s injury was confirmed. Little did we know the Bison would be without second-leading scorer, Jacari Brown, as well. Of course, an 11-point lead with less than six minutes to go made all of that moot for one game… until it went awry.
The point is, while South Dakota did well to advance, they’re still a team capable of losing by 11 points in the first 34 minutes of a game to a team without their best players. Omaha, an even better team, doesn’t have any shortage of injury issues, and having not had to play on Friday, comes in fresher.
Pick: Omaha (-5)
NEC
(4) Fairleigh-Dickinson vs. (1) Central Connecticut (-9.5, 139.5)
“Quick” projection: Central Connecticut (-10.3)
The NEC gets fired back up on Saturday, and while it would be nice if Long Island could win and Central Connecticut could lose, setting up the Blackbirds nicely at home in the final, Fairleigh-Dickinson doesn’t have the firepower outside of one man.
Volume-shooter Terrence Brown got his work done on home court to give FDU a nice win over Stonehill but a one-man band isn’t likely to be enough to take down the Blue Devils. Brown missed the first meeting between these teams, but in the second? He had 31 points, only Central Connecticut won by 21 anyway at home. Brown was efficient on that day, going 12/16 from the field, but with time to gameplan for the Knights’ star, getting to 30 should take more shots than that - a bad recipe for the underdog.
Pick: Central Connecticut (-9.5)
Moneyline parlay:
Two teams I think win but who I don’t want to ask to do so by a significant margin:
St. Thomas
Long Island
-120 at FanDuelBig South
(4) Radford vs. (1) High Point (-10, 140.5)
“Quick” projection: High Point (-7)
God forbid a +4 underdog cover in overtime, but even in an ATS loss, taking Presbyterian was at least a good idea, and a bet we’d make again knowing Radford only shot 5/19 from three, and hoping maybe next time one team doesn’t go 3/12 from the free-throw line, while the other went 23/26.
It would seem unlikely that Radford, just because they escaped Presbo, will play better against High Point - the Big South team by which all others are judged. The Panthers barely broke a sweat, casually tossing Gardner-Webb aside covering a spread that shot from -12.5 to as high as -16.
With the market unable to comprehend High Point’s dominance we’ll lay the points, and hopefully laugh when Radford wonders why they’re not getting to the free-throw line with the same ease.
Pick: High Point (-10)
(3) Winthrop vs. (2) UNC-Asheville (+1, 166.5)
“Quick” projection: UNC-Asheville (-0.1)
Asheville did a nice job of dispatching Charleston-Southern on Friday, but the point spread is all you need to know about what the market thinks of the quality of these two teams. The Bulldogs do one thing well - turnover margin. So, when they faced Charleston and their league-worst turnover margin, with the Buccaneers missing their starting point guard, a 16-7 turnover disparity created extra possessions for Asheville leading to a blowout when the Bucs couldn’t hit any shots.
Winthrop lost the turnover margin, the battle on the boards, AND put Longwood on the free-throw line 42 times… and still won comfortably. Why? Because they can put the ball in the basket. The Eagles hung 103 points on the Bulldogs last Saturday and are capable of doing it again.
Pick: Winthrop (-1)
West Coast Conference
(9) Pepperdine vs. (5) Oregon St (-11.5, 147.5)
“Quick” projection: Oregon St (-10.9)
Speaking of tiers, the same theory applies to this matchup, only there’s an obvious difference - the point spread. Both the Cougars and Beavers can show well with a win by 7-10 points, but one will have covered and the other not.
While Washington State has a balanced attack, Oregon State needs Michael Rataj to be good to win and cover. Pepperdine has a pair of long senior forwards in Stefan Todorovic and Boubacar Coulibaly to matchup with Rataj.
The Beavers haven’t done much away from Corvallis this season, so with them coming in cold while Pepperdine has already played, we won’t expect a blowout.
Pick: Pepperdine (+11.5)
(7) Loyola-Marymount vs. (6) Washington St (-3, 148.5)
“Quick” projection: Washington St (-3.8)
While it’s a patently ridiculous format, the linear bracket is somewhat appropriate for the WCC since there are obvious tiers throughout the league. Marymount pounded San Diego as they came back to earth, unable to push beyond the last tier where they reside with Pacific, Portland and Pepperdine. Next up? The middle tier of the WCC which features both PAC-12 leftovers.
While it’s been an adjustment this season in a new league, losing Cedric Coward early and then Isaiah Watts for a handful of game midseason, Wazzu boasts five double-digit scorers. The Cougars never found a win against the top four teams of the WCC, but handled those in the tier below them, and should do so again on Saturday night in Vegas.
Pick: Washington St (-3)
CAA
(9) Elon vs. (8) Drexel (PK, 128.5)
“Quick” projection: Elon (-0.3)
Technically, Elon was the second-worst 3-point shooting team in the CAA this season, but at 32% that’s not so far behind the rest of the league - including Drexel (34.7) - to be a predictable edge in one game. The Phoenix are a little better than the Dragons at rebounding, and a little worse in turnover margin. So why are we bothering with this pick’em game that could either way?
It’s a bet because it IS a pick’em game that we expect to be close and Elon is an excellent free-throw shooting team at 79% as a team. They generate a ton of attempts too, getting to the stripe 372 times in league play compared to Drexel’s 247 (making just 66.8%).
We don’t get disparity’s like this very often, so, in a game where it may come down to who can get to the line and make them, we’ll take Elon.
Pick: Elon (PK)
(10) Hampton vs. (7) Northeastern (PK, 140.5)
“Quick” projection: Northeastern (-0.8)
Coincidentally, Hampton’s season might have turned around after a game with Northeastern. The Pirates were 2-7 in CAA play after the Huskies waltzed into their gym and took a 30-point lead on the home court. It was en route to being as embarrassing of a loss as you’ll find, but the Pirates didn’t quit, eventually losing by 9.
In their next game - out-of-conference with Howard - head coach Ivan Thomas sent three starters to the bench, starting a 3-game shakeup to the Pirates rotation that ended with the rematch at Northeastern. The invigorated Pirates returned the favor to the Huskies winning wire to wire on the road, starting a 5-game winning streak.
While Hampton finished the season with close losses on the road at Drexel and league-champion Towson, those are excusable from a team whose recent form is better than their season-long resume.
Pick: Hampton (PK)
(12) Delaware vs. (5) Campbell (-2.5, 145.5)
“Quick” projection: Campbell (-1.7)
We went against Delaware with Stony Brook on Friday, and we thank the Wolves for battling back to cover as an underdog in a losing cause. Instead of stubbornly sticking with the fade of the Blue Hens, we’ll acknowledge the difference between asking a team to cover a decent-sized number like -6.5, compared to giving them a chance to win as an underdog.
To be honest, this is more of a fade of Campbell, who is 2-5 since an injury to their second-leading scorer and multi-tooled gaurd, Jasin Sinani (12.6 PPG, 5.0 REB, 2.7 AST), and one of those wins came by four against cellar-dwelling North Carolina A&T. The came at Delaware, but Campbell needed 33 points from Caleb Duggan, and massive free-throw and rebound disparities in a comeback win.
With a tournament win under their belt, let’s see if Delaware can end the Camels season, about a month later than when it figuratively did.
Pick: Delaware (+2.5)
(11) Hofstra vs. (6) Monmouth (+3.5, 128.5)
“Quick” projection: Hofstra (-0.9)
Like many of the second round games in the CAA, regardless of the seeding, there isn’t much between the teams in the middle of the pack in the conference.
In the final 10 games of the regular season, the only team to give Monmouth much of a problem was Towson (twice), right up until a late 10-3 run by Drexel game the Dragons a home win in the finale.
That game wasn’t Abdi Bashir’s best work, but the league’s second-leading scorer (20.3 PPG this season) only had nine points at Hofstra in these team’s only matchup this season, but the Hawks won in Philadelphia anyway.
Pick: Monmouth (+3.5)
Southern Conference
(5) Furman vs. (4) Samford (-3, 149.5)
“Quick” projection: Samford (-3.9)
Furman (11-7) has two wins over Samford (12-6) this season but with any luck in a pair of games that could have easily flipped given they were one-possession games with 30 seconds left.
Somehow despite generating 10 more shot attempts in a game that was pretty even in the boxscore, Samford didn’t win the first matchup. Likely to do Furman getting 12 more attempts at the free-throw line at home.
In the rematch, if Samford had started a 21-point comeback just a little earlier, the Palladins might be no more than .500 team at this point, while the Bulldogs could have a better seed and an easier matchup. Alas, that didn’t happen, so instead we’ll back Samford in a game where the market may be thinking Furman’s better than they because of a couple games.
Pick: Samford (-3)
(6) Wofford vs. (3) East Tennessee St (-1, 141.5)
“Quick” projection: East Tennessee St (-0.8)
Few teams had a more impressive close the regular season in the SoCon than East Tennessee. With a 7-2 finish that included a road win at Wofford, their two losses came at league-leading Chattanooga, and when they shot themselves out of a close second half at Western Carolina in a game where the Buccaneers only had five turnovers.
Expect East Tennessee’s length and athleticism to bother Wofford defensively, and SoCon leading scorer Quimari Peterson should handle the scoring on key possessions, as he did when he poured in 27 in the last matchup.
Pick: East Tennessee St (PK, -114 at FanDuel)
(8) Mercer vs. (1) Chattanooga (-10.5, 151.5)
“Quick” projection: Chattanooga (-8.1)
If a team is going to shoot 2/20 from deep, you’d hope it would be one on the low-end in the league’s 3-point shooting percentage category, so when Mercer (33%) went and did that, it kind of checked out, even if it was annoying for those of us with -5.5 when they won anyway but didn’t cover.
It stings even more knowing that Mercer made 15 of 30 threes in an overtime win on New Year’s Day, handing Chattanooga one of just three conference losses this season. In the rematch, the Bears shot well, but a mere 11/25 from the arc was only good enough to lose by nine.
Not to say that we’re in for another 10% shooting night, but given what was required for Mercer to be competitive with the Mocs, I’ll bet against them going white-hot for a third time against Chattanooga this season.
Pick: Chattanooga (-10.5)
America East
(7) New Hampshire vs. (2) Vermont (-14.5, 129.5)
“Quick” projection: Vermont (-13.2)
I don’t know how they did it, but New Hampshire absolutely stole two games - against UMBC and UMass-Lowell this season, creeping back from a huge second-half deficit to nip them both. That kept them out of the 8-seed, and I’m not sure they’re even better than NJIT (who finished last and was left out of the America East tourney).
For more on Vermont, you can skip to the bottom of this column (hint, hint), but the red-hot Catamounts had no trouble with New Hampshire this season winning a low-scoring by 20 and a high-scoring game by 20.
Pick: Vermont (-14.5)
(8) UMBC vs. (1) Bryant (-15.5, 164.5)
“Quick” projection: Bryant (-8.4)
UMBC is here to get buckets and little else.
They finished America East season second in 3-point shooting and with Marcus Banks and Bryce Johnson, they have arguably the best 1-2 punch in the tournament. Unfortunately, they don’t defend the three or rebound, finishing last in both.
Their issues didn’t really hurt them in two matchups against the regular season champion. In close game in Baltimore, Bryant had an 11-rebound advantage, but couldn’t pull away. Then, UMBC was out-rebounded by 14 on the road in a game that came down to a missed three by Banks at the horn.
Johnson missed the regular-season finale after playing just six minutes in a 4-point loss to Albany when he went to the hospital after taking a hard fall. He should be fine for Saturday, while a third option has emerged down the stretch with Marlon Short averaging 16.6 in the final six games for UMBC.
The Retrievers have clearly been a pain in the Bulldogs’ side, and with three legit scorers, they should be again in the America East quarters.
Pick: UMBC (+15.5)
(5) Binghamton vs. (4) Albany (-7.5, 141.5)
“Quick” projection: Albany (-8.4)
Based on counting and efficiency stats, Albany’s going to shoot threes and miss a lot of them and Binghamton should do a good job of rebounding them, and that’s how it played out in their two matchups this season. Each team won on the road, with Albany coming out on top despite going 7/26 from deep, because they were able to get to the free-throw line and make 19/25 there. Three games later, it was 5/24 for Albany, but this time Binghamton went to the charity stripe more.
ShotQuality metrics don’t like Binghamton’s chances of sustaining what they’ve done this season, but backing the Great Danes to cover a spread here means you’re willingly going into it knowing that their outside shooting will be a frustrating watch.
Pick: Binghamton (+7.5)
Big Sky
(10) Sacramento St vs. (9) Weber St (-3.5, 131.5)
“Quick” projection: Weber St (-3.5)
Sacramento State can’t shoot or defend the three, and they’re sloppy with the basketball with a Big Sky-high 12.9 turnovers per game. Luckily for them, when they went to Ogden, Utah, their threes happened to fall, as they made 15 of 29 attempts. They needed every one of them in a 3-point win at Weber State - just their second in the final 17 games of the season (after a conference-opening rock fight with Portland State).
That came eight games after a similar surprise surplus from deep gave them a 4-point win over Idaho State. Basically, every eight games, the Hornets shoot the lights out and barely win. Maybe that bit of lightning will strike again, but Weber has somewhat recovered from losing two of their three top scorers during the season, as Blaise Threatt (son of 14-year NBA’er Sedale) has been one the biggest, wait for it, threats in the Big Sky this season.
Pick: Weber St (-3.5)
(8) Eastern Washington vs. (7) Northern Arizona (-2.5, 140.5)
“Quick” projection: Northern Arizona (-1.1)
We’ve got a bad shooting team (Eastern Washington) going up against a good rebounding team (Northern Arizona), so, while the resumes for the teams in the 7/8 matchup in the Big Sky Tournament are pretty similar, that’s a matchup that could tilt things further.
Inside presence can manifest itself in a variety of ways. The Lumberjacks went to Cheney, and turned a 40-26 rebound advantage into +11 free-throws - attempted and made in a 9-point win. In the rematch, Northern Arizona handled EWash by 20 at home, not because they made nine threes (the Eagles did too), but because they did it so efficiently (14 attempts) that they’re other shots could make up the gross difference, as they turned defensive rebounds into 20 more fast break points.
How the ‘Jacks turn their matchup advantage into points is anyone’s guess, but Eastern Washington - losers of five straight - don’t do anything extra well enough to make up for it.
Pick: Northern Arizona (-2.5)
Futures:
America East: Vermont (+230, DraftKings)
Perennial powerhouse Vermont took a little bit to get going this season. Losing at Bryant was understandable, and given UMBC’s offensive firepower, you can see how they could get overwhelmed by their scoring prowess, but a loss to Binghamton was unbecoming of John Becker’s program. Since then though? Nice straight wins, and the Catamounts are coming in hot.
Should Vermont have to visit Bryant in the final, there’s no reason why the line shouldn’t be around the +3.5 it was when they squared off in Rhode Island in early January, which makes +230 a great “moneyline” price to lock in now. Plus, Bryant’s got their hands full in the quarters, and both Maine and Lowell are tougher teams than either of Vermont’s semi-final options.
Big Sky: Idaho State (+950, FanDuel)
We’re overdo for a long-shot flier, so let’s try it here with the conference leaders in rebounding margin and turnover margin. If Idaho State can create a shot advantage, they can beat anyone on any given night, especially with the conference’s leading scorer in Dylan Darling (23.2 PPG in conference).
Darling was a missed layup away from knocking off Northern Colorado, but the key will be getting some help, as the Bengals’ wins over the Montana teams and Portland State all came with Darling scoring less than his average.
Of course, Idaho State is charged with halting Montana State’s Big Sky dominance (three straight tourney titles) in the quarters, so this could be a one-and-done, but at +950, it’s worth a dabble.
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