CFB Conference Championship Betting
How to play past positions and the otherwise valuable sides
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Sports betting is linear. The bets we make in August are still in the accounts come December, and they frame how we view any championship games where those tickets are still alive.
For the nine college football conferences, we managed to get three of eight futures bets into this weekend’s title games, while adding a fourth midway through the season. As a result, we’ll treat those games differently, either standing pat on our position created back in the summer time, playing the opposite side, or shooting for a “middle.”
On top of that, with so few games, and lines dribbling out over the course of last weekend, it was easier than usual to jump on early opening lines. We’ll acknowledge those discrepancies with a “full disclosure” on each game.
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State (-3.5, 57.5)
Conference USA Championship
Friday, 7:00pm ET
Full disclosure: I don’t know if it was because the first oddsmakers to market with the CUSA title game forgot that it’s being played at an on-campus site, but the opening line of Jacksonville State -1.5 was wrong, and I pounced on the mistake.
These two teams faced each other this past Saturday in Bowling Green, and the game was bet down to a pick’em before Western Kentucky won game on a last-second, 50-yard field goal, that mattered more to it than (already clinched) Jacksonville State.
Just taking that line and applying a few points of home-field advantage should set the Gamecocks up as around 6-point favorites, so it’s unsurprising that it quickly moved up to as high as -4.5.
What happens in that circumstance might create some value on the Gamecocks, as bettors who got the early number on J-State, will bet back on the Hilltoppers in an attempt to middle (win both sides of the game), hoping the game lands on the key number of three. Sure enough, the line has come back down to -3.5.
The Gamecocks were undefeated in Conference USA before facing the desperate Hilltoppers, and while they used their bread-and-butter run game to gain 229 yards, that was actually below their season-average (4th nationally). Between that, and senior quarterback Tyler Huff (not known for his passing) going 3/11 with an interception, the Jacksonville State offense played as poorly as they had all year. However, they still had a lead with seconds to play.
Back home, and with a championship on the line, the Gamecocks should be able to up their offensive efficiency against the Hilltoppers’ 103-ranked defense in EPA/Play against the run, and if last week’s harmless loss creates a shorter point spread, we’ll take advantage, backing a valuable favorite.
Pick: Jacksonville State (-3.5, -108 at FanDuel)
Tulane @ Army (+5.5, 46.5)
American Athletic Conference Championship
Friday, 8:00pm ET
Full disclosure: This game opened with Tulane as 4-point road favorites, which was in line with my projection for it, but the line’s drifted away with the Green Wave getting bet up to -5.5.
The hot topic around the sports betting virtual water cooler is the success that Tulane head coach, Jon Sumrall, has had in recent games against the triple-option, as his teams have allowed just nine points in games against the academies the last three years. However, let’s punch some holes in that sample size.
2022 vs. Army (with Troy): Army started the season 3-6, Bryson Daily barely played
2023 vs. Army (with Troy): Army started the season 2-6 before fully committing to Daily, and were lost in offensive changes that had the Knights throwing twice as much in ‘23 as they had in ‘22
2024 vs. Navy (with Tulane): Midshipmen quarterback Blake Horvath played 11 snaps before leaving with injury
Tulane could have played this game at home instead of heading up to chilly West Point, but they couldn’t stop the Memphis ground game, as the Tigers ran for 236 yards to spoil that idea.
Maybe Sumrall has the magic tricks to shutdown the triple-option, but it’s more likely that Army, at full-strength with Daily, can grind this game down to minimal possessions. Meanwhile, the Knights were able to slow UTSA’s red-hot passing game in order to lock up home-field advantage on Friday night, so the underdog is the side here.
Pick: Army (+5.5, -113 at FanDuel)
UNLV @ Boise State (-4, 58.5)
Mountain West Championship
Friday, 8:00pm ET
Full disclosure: After Boise State beat UNLV on October 26th, virtually securing their place in the Mountain West title game and likely at home, we jumped on the Broncos to win the conference at -175, via the THE WINDOW podcast, thinking the moneyline odds for the title game would be considerably shorter. Spoiler: It’s not.
In Week 8, Boise State was -3.5 at UNLV. While it was a close game, the Broncos did cover, so color me surprised that a location change from Las Vegas to the blue turf in Boise barely alters the line.
Normally, in college football, a drastic home-field swap, from indoors to Idaho in December, would be at least a 6-point swing, and the Broncos would be well over a touchdown favorite at home. The fact that this line is so short implies a combination of Boise State’s rating having gone down and UNLV’s gone up.
The Broncos have had trouble covering numbers down the stretch, going 2-3 ATS with one of those wins among the luckiest covers of the year (against San Jose State), but those were all big numbers, as Boise’s schedule had them regularly 2-3 touchdown favorites.
Meanwhile, in the Rebels’ four games since, they’re 1-2 in big spread games, plus a similar performance at SJSU that Boise had.
I don’t see why there’s any reason why one team would see a significant change in their rating and the other wouldn’t. There’s value on Boise State via the spread, but having already committed to a futures bet priced near-identical to the moneyline, that’s where I’ll reassert the best bet for this game, as tackling Ashton Jeanty in the cold will be an experience UNLV’s unfamiliar with.
Pick: Boise State moneyline (-176 at FanDuel)
Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-2, 51)
Big 12 Championship
Saturday, Noon ET
Full disclosure: We bet Iowa State to win the Big 12 at 10-1 odds as part of the college football season preview series back in August. However, while we’re grateful to the Cyclones for getting this far, we’re jumping off their bandwagon.
The injury bug has bothered Arizona State all season, so their offensive metrics are depressed because they were forced to play without star tailback and offensive driver Cam Skattebo for a game against UCF, and were missing quarterback Sam Leavitt for their loss at Cincinnati. Now, more bad luck has forced the Sun Devils to take on Iowa State without leading receiver Jordyn Tyson. However, we want to back the Sun Devils anyway.
Part of taking the Cyclones at +1000 before the season was based on the projection of a relatively soft schedule, and somehow it got even cozier throughout the season, as they didn’t face any of the other three teams in the 3-way tie atop the conference. Of the three 6-3 teams in the Big 12, Iowa State faced just two of them, both at home, and lost one, to Texas Tech, unable to stop the Red Raiders late. Catching Utah and Kansas State at the end of their disappointing seasons was a big break for the Cyclones as well.
Matt Campbell’s been in these big games before and the moment has overwhelmed his teams, even when he had a veteran quarterback by the name of Brock Purdy. Meanwhile, Kenny Dillingham has led a massive turnaround in Tempe, consistently winning tough matchups - at Kansas State, vs. BYU - or destroying lesser opponents (Oklahoma State, Arizona). With the Sun Devils able to rely on Skattebo, and a knack for creating a key turnover on defense, we’ll take the equity from betting on Iowa State before the season and put it towards a bet on the ASU moneyline. If you don’t have a position on the Sun Devils already, you can make one.
How to bet: Take gross potential winnings on Iowa State and put it on Arizona State ML (-125)
Example:
1 unit bet on Iowa State (+1000) = Gross winning of 10 units
10 units on Arizona State (-125) = Gross winning of 8 units
Creating a free-roll net win of 7 units on Arizona State, and a break-even on Iowa State winning.Ohio vs. Miami-Ohio (-2.5, 44.5)
MAC Championship
Saturday, Noon ET
Full disclosure: Our preseason pick, Bowling Green (+700), lost at home, putting Miami into the MAC Championship. Maybe it was due to watching the Redhawks closely last Friday, but I bet Miami on the moneyline when the line opened at -115.
I had a fair projection of Miami -1.5, but that’s without consideration for the combination of quarterback Brett Gabbert and Chuck Martin in big games. Martin won the MAC last year when the Redhawks were the less-talented team - beating Toledo in the championship despite Gabbert having been lost for the season with a knee injury.
This year, Gabbert’s been healthy for the entirety of his sixth season, and he’s joined by Keyon Mozee - averaging over 100 yards per game during the MAC season. Only Northern Illinois has a better defensive EPA/Play in the conference.
Going on the road to beat Bowling Green was another impressive big-game win from Martin’s group, and an example of the difference between Miami’s path, and Ohio’s conference schedule - absent games against the Falcons and Western Michigan.
These teams met earlier this season and a 30-20 Miami win is actually flattering to Ohio, who trailed 30-6 in the second half. The Redhawks shut down dual-threat quarterback Parker Navarro to the point where he was benched, and they can slow him again.
Miami’s the better, tested, more experienced team, and should make it back-to-back titles relatively convincingly.
Pick: Miami-Ohio (-2.5, -122 at FanDuel)
Georgia vs. Texas (-2.5, 49)
SEC Championship
Saturday, 4:00pm ET
Full disclosure: Georgia touched +3 on Sunday, and I took that instantly, thinking that ‘s more likely to get bet than the alternative.
We’ve got a rematch from earlier this season, when Georgia pulled off a rare road win in a high-profile showdown when the Longhorns were over a field-goal favorite at home. With the shift to neutral territory, and the Bulldogs having won, it makes sense that Texas would be favored, but under a field goal this time around.
The Bulldogs’ defensive front overwhelmed the Longhorns’ offensive line in the first half, as an interception, two fumbles, and two negative-yardage possessions setup five drives where Georgia totalled just 90 yards, but scored five times for a 23-0 halftime lead.
The Longhorns will need to provide Quinn Ewers better protection if they want to win in Atlanta. A complete 180-degree turn is unlikely, so the Longhorns’ offense shouldn’t light up the scoreboard in a quasi-road environment, but even a modest improvement might tamp down Georgia’s scoring, since they won’t have the same consistent short fields they had in Austin.
The Longhorns’ defense held up well in the first meeting, allowing as few points as could be expected against that field position, while picking off Carson Beck three times. Last week, they kept Texas A&M out of the end zone in College Station.
Expecting fewer turnovers likely means fewer points in this matchup, and a total of 49.5 is higher than the 45 total points in the first meeting.
Pick: Under 49.5 (-110, Bet365)
Marshall @ Louisiana (-5.5, 57)
MAC Championship
Saturday, 7:30pm ET
Full disclosure: I bet Marshall +5 on the open and was surprised to see this line creep up towards +6.
Often, a conference title game matches up a team expected to be there with the surprise team of the conference, and that’s the case in the Sun Belt, as Louisiana was among the favorites, while Marshall was picked in the middle of the league. As bettors, we have to decipher how much of a fluke it is that the surprise team is here.
The Sun Belt conference was predicted to be so tight that, had this game been played before the season, Louisiana would be around -6. Then the season played out, and Marshall consistently outperformed their rating, tying Arizona State for the best team in the country against the spread with a record of 10-2 ATS.
After starting the season with competitive first halves on the road in games at Virginia Tech and Ohio State, Charles Huff’s group lost just one more game, by one point, and concluded their season by winning on the road as underdogs at James Madison to win the East division.
Going into the season’s final game, Marshall was rated right alongside Louisiana, so my projected line for this game is Ragin’ Cajuns by a field goal - an hypothesis supported by a negligible difference between each team’s EPA/Play this season. As a result, there’s value in taking the points with a team that’s been undervalued all season.
Pick: Marshall (+6.5, -113 at FanDuel)
Clemson vs. SMU (-2.5, 56)
ACC Championship
Saturday, 8:00pm ET
Full disclosure: We’ve bet Clemson (+200) to make the College Football Playoff as part of the season previews. The idea was that the Tigers might have the resume to get in as an at-large, regardless of whether they won the ACC title - a game we hoped they’d be facing Miami in.
Before the season, Clemson was thought of highly enough, that they’d be 7.5-point favorites on a neutral site against SMU. With losses to Georgia, Louisville, and South Carolina, the Tigers have lost the right to get invited to the 12-team tournament, but those Clemson defeats don’t make SMU a better team, it just means the Mustangs have fewer losses amidst an easier schedule.
It’s possible SMU is better than Clemson, but their whole case is based on the Mustangs beating Louisville, since SMU didn’t play an SEC or Big Ten team, and went 1-1 against the Big 12.
The Tigers lost at home last weekend, giving up a late touchdown, and then throwing an interception while in range for a game-tying field goal. If that ending goes differently, the market might be less interested in selling Clemson.
In the end, this game should be a pure pick’em, given how little we know about SMU against top competition, and that we know Clemson is capable of a wide range of performances, so there’s value on the Tigers getting a couple points.
Our “make the playoff” tickets on Clemson at +200 provide an obvious value compared to the Tigers moneyline, and I’m fine with rolling with a bet made months ago.
How to bet: Hold preseason Clemson to make the CFP (+200)
Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5, 49.5)
Big Ten Championship
Saturday, 8:00pm ET
Full disclosure: Oregon’s been our prime national title bet since before the season, backing them to win the CFP at +728 and to win the Big Ten at +220. Interestingly, the Ducks’ path to the national championship might improve with a loss, a point of discussion on the upcoming Friday podcast at THE WINDOW.
Oregon opened at -3.5 against Penn State, a number that might seem low, but I have this line projected at -3.15 - a tiny shift from where preseason market ratings would have had this matchup (-3.35). That constitutes a small amount of value in taking the points with Penn State. However, we know that James Franklin and company haven’t won games like this historically.
The CFP committee seems to have an affinity for the Big Ten, so it’s highly unlikely that a loss takes the Nittany Lions out of the playoff picture, which sets up another situation where Penn State can lose, and it doesn’t matter in the long run, outside of seeding and securing a bye.
With a fair line, and a matchup in the trenches that Oregon isn’t likely to dominate, there’s no reason to lay the points with the Ducks, whether or not you’ve put together a preseason position on them to win the conference.
Though, shooting for a middle is an option - playing back one unit on Penn State, so that:
If Oregon wins by 4+, you net 1.2 units, and they get a bye in the CFP
If Oregon wins by 1-3, you net 3.2 units, and they get a bye in the CFP
If Penn State wins, you break-even, and Oregon likely gets the 5-seed, hosting the CFP 12-seed (UNLV/Big 12 winner) and facing the 4-seed (Boise State/Big 12 winner) in the second round. Not a bad consolation prize.