CFB Week 14 betting: Best bets for Black Friday
Half-a-dozen worthwhile plays for Thanksgiving’s leftovers
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
If a Thanksgiving triple-header of NFL games weren’t enough, the league is throwing another game right in the middle of Black Friday - a day traditionally reserved for dinner’s leftovers, but also an appetizer for college football’s biggest rivalry week.
The college game refuses to take a back seat to whatever the pros are serving up, though. Instead of the mere handful of games we’ve been offered in the past, we’ve got 14(!) games on the board for Friday alone.
Ball State @ Ohio (-15, 52.5)
As discussed on this Tuesday’s episode of THE WINDOW: Sports betting podcast, there’s a bigger game on the MACtion scoreboard Friday, but like Miami and Bowling Green, Ohio can still make the conference championship, however, they need a win and some help.
Is Ohio’s “something to play for” the reason we’re getting a few extra points on the other side of the semi-key number of -14? We won’t necessarily ever know, but based on last week’s lines, Ohio -10.5 seems like a more legitimate point spread.
The Cardinals have lost three straight and sit at 3-8, with nothing to play for, but Ball State hasn’t made a habit of getting blown out this season… prior to last week anyway.
In MAC play, Ball State’s losses had come by 3, 3, 6, and 3, with two wins and a close loss at Vanderbilt sandwiched in-between, that is, until they were soundly beaten on Saturday by Bowling Green. Well, given we’ve thought highly of Bowling Green all season, can we blame the Cardinals for a decisive loss at the hands of the Falcons?
Meanwhile, Ohio’s avoided Bowling Green, as part of arguably the comfiest schedule in the conference, and are getting full credit for their four straight wins. However, they trailed Toledo 7-0 at halftime last week, in a game that was just as important to them as this one. The Bobcats likely win on Friday, but no one’s asking them to do so by three scores in order to put pressure on their conference rivals to take care of their own business.
Pick: Ball State (+15, Bet365)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin (-2.5, 43.5)
There’s many ways to crunch the numbers to assess what “value” means in a point spread, so let’s try one:
Last week, Minnesota was 12-point underdogs at home to Penn State. A month ago, Wisconsin was 8-point underdogs when they hosted the Nittany Lions.
That 4-point difference, along with the Badgers’ home-field advantage, should translate to around a touchdown spread for Wisconsin here
What’s happened since Wisconsin was in a 1-point game in the fourth quarter with Penn State?
They’ve lost four straight in total, missing each opportunity for a sixth win, but road games at Iowa and Nebraska and a home game with Oregon (which they led in the fourth quarter) were always going to be tough tasks.
With one last chance to get Bowl eligible, and Minnesota having left it all on the field in a close loss in their last home game, but already postseason bound, the Badgers should take care of business at Camp Randall.
Pick: Wisconsin (-2.5, Bet365)
Navy @ East Carolina (-2.5, 55.5)
You don’t often see radical changes in the middle of the season in college football. The campaign is short enough to let a coach ride out the year. So, when a head coach is pink-slipped in late October, it’s more than a little surprising, and it’s borderline shocking when the team responds the way the Pirates have to Mike Houston being replaced by defensive coordinator Blake Harrell.
The first order of business for Harrell? Like any defensive coordinator, he was likely fed up with quarterback Jake Garcia’s turnovers, so he turned the offense over to sophomore Katin Houser, and the Pirates have reeled off four-straight wins, earning Harrell the full-time job.
Navy started the season with six wins, only to get a dose of reality against Notre Dame. That was an obvious step up in weight class, but the Midshipmen have only won one game since, so it’s not like it was a mere blip on their radar.
Even a 35-0 shutout at the hands of Tulane hasn’t sent Navy’s market rating down anywhere near where it was before the season, when they were expected to win around 5.5 games. Meanwhile, ECU’s not far from their original projection, and should be around over a field goal favorite regardless of the availability of Navy QB Blake Horvath, which is why they’ve moved from +1 to -2.5.
Having already seen a better version of Navy’s offense (Army), ECU and their defensive coordinator-turned-head coach should get the win, and improve their Bowl assignment as a top-4 team in the AAC.
Pick: East Carolina (-2.5, Bet365)
Oregon State @ No. 11 Boise State (-20.5, 56.5)
We’re still getting over Boise State’s 3-touchdown win over San Jose State (+14.5) from two weeks ago, because we know that was a coin-flip game that got away from the Spartans late. It’s one of three consecutive close games the Broncos have played against mid-tier Mountain West teams leading into this game.
Having long clinched a spot in next week’s conference title game, has Boise gotten complacent? Even though they need to win out to make the College Football Playoff?
Had this random non-conference game been played last week, we’d be wondering if Oregon State was even capable of competing with the Broncos.
Speaking of “non-conference,” after losing four straight, the Beavers won a 41-38 shootout in the de facto “PAC-2” championship with Washington State. Whether they have anything left for the Broncos isn’t certain, but they’re sitting on five wins, and an otherwise lost season could be salvaged by getting to a Bowl game. If that’s something Oregon State’s looking for, they should keep it as close with Boise as lesser teams like Wyoming, SJSU, and Nevada have recently.
Pick: Oregon State (+20.5)
Texas State @ South Alabama (+1, 61.5)
Sometimes value is created in underachievement.
Texas State had the talent to win the Sun Belt, but instead fell into the trap of being no more than a bully against the bottom-half of the league, while losing key games to Old Dominion and Louisiana. Of course, with six wins in the books already, and no chance to make the Sun Belt title game, the Bobcats couldn’t stop 2-8 Georgia State in San Marcos last week.
They technically have the same record, but it’s a wildly different story in Mobile. South Alabama beat Louisiana two weeks ago, leaving the door open that they win the West division with a victory on Friday and a Louisiana loss on Saturday.
Freshman Gio Lopez has thrown only three interceptions all season, and he causes a disturbance with his legs as well, augmenting the duo of Fluff Bothwell and Kentrel Bullock out of the backfield. The three of them are set for a big day in the regular season finale.
Pick: South Alabama (+1, DraftKings)
Nebraska @ Iowa (-5.5, 39.5)
The Cornhuskers played the game of their season in getting a sixth win and Bowl eligible against Wisconsin last Saturday. Having lost four straight, we have to give Nebraska credit for digging deep in their final home game of the season, but with a game line I have projected over a touchdown, not SO MUCH credit as to keep this line under -7. The game opened -4, so the betting market at-large has agreed that was short, but there’s still some value left.
The Cornhuskers’ 44-25 win came with a yardage split of 473 to 407, so the scoreboard was more than a little misleading. If you’re impressed by that home win over Wisconsin, Iowa has one too, beating the Badgers 42-10, but with a decisive yardage disparity of 422-261 (6.6-4.6 YPP).
The Hawkeyes have been the better team all season, and will show it in the regular season finale on Friday night.