CFB Week 5 betting: The “Saturday 7”

No getting “pushed” around this week!

Oct 04, 2024

I don’t know what a “push party” is, but I think we had one to close out Saturdays in September. A game cancellation and two more bets that landed exactly on the number and all of a sudden the “Saturday 7” was a split in the “Week 5 Four.”

As discussed in our look at the big games of the week, there isn’t a headliner in Week 6, but that has little to do with us digging deep down the board for seven teams who are undervalued.

Army @ Tulsa (+13, 51)

Maybe we’re starting Saturday by walking right into the hornet’s nest of the academy revolution in college football (except Air Force).

Navy and Army are all of a sudden wagons.

It’s also at least possible that Army’s rating increase from a middle of the pack American Athletic Conference team (43/100) to one of the best teams in the Group-of-5, is somewhat propped up by playing Lehigh (FCS), Florida Atlantic, Rice and Temple, four teams who have two total wins over FBS opponents this season.

Meanwhile, Tulsa has had nothing but tough matchups - three road games against higher rated teams and their lone FBS home game with Oklahoma State.

Before the season, this game would have had a spread under a touchdown, so the combination of it being Army’s toughest game, with a somewhat favorable situation for Tulsa, suggests there’s some value on the home underdog.

Pick: Tulsa (+13, DraftKings)

Appalachian State @ Marshall (-3, 58)

It’s been over two weeks since Appalachian State took a beating at the hands of Gio Lopez and South Alabama on a Thursday night. While there’s a lot of other things going on locally as to why they couldn’t play Liberty last week, getting out of Boone and back on the field might be what this team is thirsting for.

Marshall edged a mid-tier MAC team after a pair convincing losses to Power-4 teams, so there’s no reason that their rating should go up.

You can get to the opener of Marshall -3.5 if you really take App State down off that loss to the Jaguars and getting blown out by the Tigers. However, it’s the same premise as last week (pre-cancellation) - in an evenly-matched game, we’re getting as many as 3.5 points on a team with something to prove.

Pick: Appalachian State (+3, Bet365)

West Virginia @ Oklahoma St. (-3, 64.5)

The market liked Oklahoma State against Utah and then again on the road at Kansas State and neither time did it go well for those betting on the Cowboys. Now it seems like everyone’s jumping off the stagecoach, as this game opened Oklahoma State -4.5, but now we’re down to a flat field goal. Since the Cowboys’ rating for those games would put this line up over a touchdown, we’re getting a good deal on the Pokes.

If the line drop is a credit to West Virginia for coming back to beat Kansas at home before their bye week, allowing 243 rushing yards to the Jayhawks doesn’t bode well for a game against Ollie Gordon, who’s well overdue for an explosion after facing two tougher defenses.

Pick: Oklahoma State (-3)

No. 10 Michigan @ Washington (-1.5, 41.5)

“What’s this large transportation device?” - Michigan, seeing an aeroplane for the first time this season.

Winning a national championship means you get to stay home for September, I guess?

The Wolverines have to fly out to Seattle for their first road game of the season, closing out the first segment of their season before getting a bye next week. There might have been signs of Michigan wearing down - after big games against Texas and USC - as they nearly coughed up a 3-touchdown lead to Minnesota last week.

The Huskies now have plenty of film on the Wolverines’ offensive shift to basically a run-only attack, and while they were gashed for 176 yards on 30 carries by Rutgers’ tailbacks after their own cross-country flight last week, they were in position to tie the game late last Friday.

The Huskies’ defense should be conditioned to take on a bruising attack, and have a diverse offensive attack of their own. At home, against what might be a tired team from Michigan, the Huskies should be able to take a game lined under a field goal.

Pick: Washington moneyline (-120)

Baylor @ No. 16 Iowa State (-12.5, 45)

Since escaping Iowa City with the CyHawk, Iowa State has quietly hammered a pair of teams they’re better than, beating up Arkansas State and shutting out Houston, proving you can cover a big spread by simply not allowing the other team to score.

The Cyclones had trouble scoring last week, but that shouldn’t be an issue against Baylor, who gave up four first-half touchdowns to BYU - an offense not nearly as dangerous as Iowa State. The Bears’ defense ranks in the 70s in EPA/Play against both the run and the pass.

Baylor got back into the last week’s game through the air, but the Cyclones are ranked fourth in EPA/Play on opponent’s drop backs, so they should be able to hold a lead.

Pick: Iowa State (-12.5)

Central Florida @ Florida (+2.5, 62)

UCF was exposed against Colorado last week, a week after the were down three touchdowns at TCU. The Horned Frogs will rue not closing that game out, but it also made the betting market believe the Knights are better than they are.

For their second road game of the season, UCF heads into “The Swamp,” as part of the Gators’ “toughest schedule ever” campaign. Florida’s record was always going to look ugly because of the slate of teams they’re signed up to play, but they showed they’re a good team in comfortably winning at Mississippi State last week. As a result, their preseason rating remains unchanged.

The Gators’ next six games are brutal, so they should be particularly focused on beating another in-state team that they might be at least the equal to. Getting points for a home game with a team that hasn’t lost a game they weren’t expected to is too tough to pass up.

Pick: Florida (+3, -118 at Betano)

No. 8 Miami @ California (+10.5, 55)

I have this lined just under 10, and there’s nothing from Miami’s performance last Friday that would make me think they should be laying anything in the double digits on the road in Berkeley. The market agreed upon seeing Miami open as 13-point favorites, but even at +10.5 there’s still some value left on Cal here for #ACCafterdark.

Cam Ward pulled out the win over Virginia Tech, but the Hurricanes’ defense left something to be desired. Which is a problem when hoping to hold onto a point spread cover.

Cal is well-tested, with trips to Auburn and Tallahassee, and while those teams have disappointed this season, a win and a close loss isn’t anything to be ashamed of. Justin Wilcox has been a headache for big favorites in the not-so-old days of the PAC-12, and the Hurricanes profile similar to some of those talented teams with a Heisman-candidate quarterback that got tripped up well past midnight eastern.