CFB Week 6: Big game lookahead
Picking games and pumpkins this Saturday
Repeat after me:
“Sure, pumpkin-picking sounds like a great idea, Dear. There’s a ton of games today, but, you know what, you’ve been so great about me watching college football each Saturday this season, I can skip it this week. Plus, the next few (eight) weeks are bangers”
What they don’t know, won’t kill them.
What they don’t know, is that the schedule for Week 6 is GRIM.
For those of us without the pressure to pumpkin-pick, or those who will have access to score updates within the deep recesses of the patch, we might as well make up for a lack of marquee matchups with a high-volume approach.
No. 9 Missouri @ No. 25 Texas A&M (-2, 48.5)
This line opened at pick’em, and - full disclosure - I pounced on the Aggies. Evidently, I wasn’t alone as the Aggies are now the short favorite.
You’ll recall that last week, we assessed Texas A&M’s game with Arkansas as mis-lined at -4, and it closed at -6.5 by kickoff on Saturday. The Aggies only won by four, pushing our bet, but taking that team rating for A&M and applying it here would project something closer to Aggies -4 this weekend.
Missouri’s been a tough team to rate. Like Ole Miss before last week, the Tigers’ list of opponents hasn’t been loaded with conference contenders, with close home wins over scrappy squads - Boston College and Vanderbilt, and this is their first game away from home all season. Until they get a convincing win (and/or cover) and prove otherwise, we have to treat them like a team that isn’t a contender.
The Aggies gave up a 75-yard passing touchdown on the third play of the game last Saturday, but from there the defense was buttoned-up, allowing 4.47 yards per play. Mike Elko should have a plan to pay particular attention to Luther Burden and Theo Wease Jr., and the best thing the Aggies’ do defensively is stop the run.
The Aggies’ offense hasn’t been amazing with backup Marcel Reed, but they continue to do enough to win, particularly thanks to his mobility. Bettors’ interest might come from hopes that Conner Weigman will be back behind center, but even if he’s not, the Tigers’ defense hasn’t shown enough to be worried about Reed in what will be his third conference start, and first at home. As long as the line is under a field goal, the Aggies are worth a look to cover and go to 3-0 in the SEC.
Pick: Texas A&M (-2)
SMU @ No. 22 Louisville (-7, 57)
Sometimes we see a team tested in Week 1 and/or Week 2, and can make something of a judgement about their value relative to the betting market.
Louisville didn’t have those games on their schedule, but in the last two weeks they have an unimpressive win over Georgia Tech and a loss at Notre Dame in what felt like a winnable game were it not for three turnovers. So, what are we supposed to do with these Cardinals?
SMU’s early season didn’t have a high-profile matchup either, so when they lost to BYU, panic set in. Those Cougars are now 5-0 though. The Mustangs have opted for Kevin Jennings over Preston Stone, and the offense has stopped turning the ball over, while all the defense and special teams do is take advantage of opponents’ mistakes and supplement the scoring, as SMU scored 108 points against TCU and Florida State.
The Mustangs go on the road for the first time since Week 1, but defense (and special teams) travels, and SMU is fifth nationally in EPA/Play against the run. We’re getting a full touchdown with a team that might be better, so taking the underdog is a no-brainer, with SMU getting an upgrade and Louisville deserving of a downgrade.
Pick: SMU (+7, -110 at Bet365)
Iowa @ No. 2 Ohio State (-20, 44.5)
Ohio State won big and covered a huge number in their first conference game last week at Michigan State, but as they so eloquently showed on Scott Van Pelt’s “Bad Beats” segment on Sportscenter, the Spartans squandered more than a few opportunities to stay close with the Buckeyes. Once the tide turns - thanks to turnovers in the red zone - there’s no coming back for a team 80th nationally in offensive EPA/Play.
If Iowa gets down big to Ohio State, they may likely suffer a similar fate, but the Hawkeyes’ defense is top-20 nationally, and they’re coming off a bye, two weeks after putting up 272 rushing yards on Minnesota. They should be able to stay in touch with Ohio State, especially if the Buckeyes aren’t fully locked-in from the start - something that’s been a minor blip in games against Marshall (7-7 after the first quarter) and again last week (3-0 lead after the first quarter).
Iowa flat-out kicked away the CyHawk game against Iowa State, thanks to a frustrating second half that, had they closed out a 12-point lead, would have changed the perception of this game. That loss, while painful, doesn’t count against them within the Big Ten standings, and even though the market doesn’t give Iowa much of a chance, they probably disagree. Having bounced back from the rivalry game loss, Iowa can be considered the team they were expected to be before the season - one that would have been closer to a 2-touchdown underdog rather than almost the three that they are here.
Pick: Iowa (+20, -108 at Pinnacle)
No. 12 Ole Miss @ South Carolina (+9.5, 53.5)
The Lane Train got derailed on their first stop to the College Football Playoff that seemingly everyone had Ole Miss penciled in for this offseason. The Rebels are laden with talented transfers and the experienced Jaxson Dart. None of that helped Ole Miss beat Kentucky at home last week, losing as 17-point favorites in Oxford.
Naturally, their rating drops, so a game where they might have been more than a double-digit favorite now has a point spread in the single digits. That might been the case even if Ole Miss had won last week, were it not for LaNorris Sellers getting hurt against LSU a couple weeks prior. Had the Gamecocks converted a 17-point lead into victory, they’d be undefeated with a pair of impressive SEC wins, and an upgraded rating. Instead, they’re right where they were before the season.
Early reports indicate that Sellers should be back this week, three weeks since suffering the ankle sprain against the Tigers. If he’s 100%, South Carolina should be rated higher than they are, and if Ole Miss isn’t all they were cracked up to be preseason, a drop in rating would suggest a point spread inside of a touchdown.
With little difference between +9.5 and +8.5, we might as well wait to see if we can get +10 with the Cocks, even if it means having to pay a little extra for it.
Pick: Aim for +10 at -115 with South Carolina, bet +8.5 or better if never available
Rutgers @ Nebraska (-7, 41)
There are two elements to value-based betting.
The first: Determining whether the point spread should be higher or lower, based on how the market rated the teams before the season and what they’ve done in-season to prove whether they’re overrated, underrated, or properly rated.
By the numbers, Rutgers - a projected 6.5-win team in the Big Ten - on the road against a 7.5-win Big Ten team in Nebraska, would be a 6.5-point underdog. Through the first month of the season, neither team has saw their rating change before a win and cover last week.
Rutgers is undefeated, with wins versus Washington and at Virginia Tech. Could that be worth a ratings boost?
Nebraska’s convincing wins over Purdue and Colorado sandwich a home loss to Illinois. Could that be worth a downgrade?
Either would translate to a shorter point spread and value on Rutgers.
The second element: Even if the point spread was fair and understandable, do you have enough confidence in one team to outperform their opponent in a way necessary to cover?
Greg Schiano’s team has shown over the last two weeks that they will grind out a win, even in a scenario where they’re out-gained or have the less-talented roster. They’re a tough team. Nebraska’s out-toughed Colorado (known for being overmatched in the trenches) and Purdue (who have more issues than just a lack of strength), but when they took on Illinois, they gave up 166 rushing yards to the Illini.
With a case to be made the line is too high, and the profiles of both teams, getting a touchdown is too much to pass up in a game where the loser’s hopes for the Big Ten Championship game are likely dashed.
Pick: Rutgers (+7, -110 at Bet365)
No. 15 Clemson @ Florida State (+14.5, 47)
Imagine having such a bad start to your season that you single-handedly get your biggest game of the season ejected from the “Big Game” conversation on a week when we’ve even included Rutgers-Nebraska. Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2024 Florida State Seminoles!
No, Clemson-Florida State is no longer a big game but it needs to be addressed - potentially as a reminder - since it was one of our “Game of the Year” plays from before the season.
In the second return episode of THE WINDOW: Sports betting podcast in August, we pulled the trigger on an early investment on the Tigers (+3.5) being the valuable side. Just over a month later, and the Seminoles’ season has fallen apart to the point where they’re now over two touchdown home underdogs, and without their starting quarterback.
It’s a shift in market opinion so aggressive that some sportsbooks are offering a cash out of close to 80% of the winnings, before the game is even being played. It’s a rare situation where making a bet returns such a massive profit based on the stock of each team going up or down.