CFB Week 8 betting: The “Saturday 7”
Three Big Ten ‘dogs, a trio of G5 bets, and Utah gets their groove back
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
In Week 7, both bets that felt like we were walking into some sort of a square trap ended up not only cashing easily, but saw Vanderbilt show again that they’re legitimately good, while Florida almost stunned Tennessee in Neyland Stadium. Unfortunately for the Gators their future outlook is even worse with the loss of Graham Mertz for the season. Another 4-3 week keeps our best stuff profitable (29-20-3), if not exactly lighting the world on fire on a weekly basis.
Wisconsin @ Northwestern (+8, 41.5)
After an early season downgrade in the betting market, Wisconsin’s scored a pair of blowout wins to get bumped back up to where they started as a 6.5-win team out of the Big Ten. However, I’m not getting too excited about the Badgers dominating Purdue (everyone does) and daring Rutgers’ quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis - who is not only missing an ‘N’ but also throwing talent - to beat them by selling out to stop the run (he could not).
This week, the Badgers go to Northwestern, who are starting to see dividends from abruptly switching starting quarterbacks three games ago. Jack Lausch struggled on the road in Washington, and couldn’t keep up with Indiana’s second-rated pass offense by EPA/Play, but the Wildcats showed they’re still fighting with a blowout win at Maryland last week.
I think the Wildcats are better than their rating - the same now as before the season - and I’m not sold on Braedyn Locke and the Badgers’ 82nd-ranked offense by EPA/Play.
Pick: Northwestern (+8)
Nebraska @ No. 16 Indiana (-6.5, 50)
We thank Indiana for their service.
With Nathan Rourke in charge of a high-powered offense, the Hoosiers have won all six of their games this season, already cashing the over on their win total for us (from the Big Ten preview).
Since the money’s already in the account, we can throw some cold water on the undefeated half-season, quietly mentioning that their three power conference wins have come at UCLA (who’ve been downgraded to among the worst of college football’s Power-4 teams), Northwestern (rated among the worst of college football’s Power-4 teams) and Maryland (who just got trounced by Northwestern).
You can only win the games in front of you, but it doesn’t mean you should get as big of an upgrade in the betting market as the Hoosiers have gotten. With similar preseason ratings, this game was going to be a pick’em, and it’s not like Nebraska’s failed miserably. Their lone loss came in overtime to a game Illinois squad.
Ideally, Nebraska would have preformed better in their games with Purdue and Rutgers, but with a bye week to ready themselves for a road game against a team with a similar profile, let’s back the Huskers to at least keep it close.
Pick: Nebraska (+6.5)
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina (+5, 57)
At 6’3, 220 lbs, Coastal Carolina’s quarterback, Ethan Vasko, is known more for his running ability than as a pure passer, so after a screen-pass went awry - intercepted and returned for a pick-six to give James Madison a 2-score lead - the Chanticleers were in trouble against one of the teams to beat in the Sun Belt.
Last week’s blowout loss has brought Coastal’s rating down, while Louisiana’s rating has soared into the upper-echelon of the conference. A win at Wake Forest and a 2-0 conference record will do that. However, should they be above some power conference teams, while the Chants linger in the bottom-half of the Sun Belt? That’s what this line suggests.
According to collegefootballinsiders.com’s CFB graphs, Coastal Carolina’s actually the better team between the two. If they’re mean performance is even close to equal, the Chants should be a short favorite in a game that could tighten the conference standings.
Pick: Coastal Carolina (+5.5, FanDuel)
No. 24 Michigan @ No. 22 Illinois (+4, 44.5)
In an untraditional move, we intentionally neglected this ranked-on-ranked matchup in our early week lookahead at the big games of the week. After all, it’s a bigger deal for the loser than the winner, since a second conference loss is a death blow to their Big Ten chances.
We’ll include the game here because the home underdog is too interesting to pass up. Through six games, Michigan’s on their third starting quarterback. Jack Tuttle’s been around for six years, but actually only attempted 217 passes over those seasons, throwing an equal seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. It’s a bad sign for the 4-2 Wolverines that waiting for Tuttle to get healthy this season was their hope for a multidimensional offense.
If there’s a way to best the Wolverines’ defense, it’s via the air with Luke Altmyer and his 14:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In this second year in Barry Lunney’s offense, I trust the better quarterback, and the more experienced head coach in Bret Bielema getting points at home.
We’ll excuse a dicey game with Purdue last week as Illinois not knowing they were up against a dual-threat quarterback in Ryan Browne, and if that game is why this line has moved to Michigan as a favorite of over a field goal, we’ll take it. Literally.
Pick: Illinois (+4)
North Texas @ Memphis (-11.5, 68.5)
We came into the season expecting Seth Henigan to light up the AAC, and he’s been fine for Memphis, but no one in the country has more passing touchdowns so far this season than North Texas’s Chandler Morris (only Cam Ward also has 20). The Mean Green are 38th in the EPA/Play on dropbacks while Memphis is 89th.
The combination of Morris and DT Sheffield (7 receiving TDs) is a problem for opposing defenses, and while North Texas’s defense isn’t very good, neither is Memphis’s. The game total of 68.5 expects a shootout, and I do too.
North Texas’s only loss of the season came at Texas Tech, so it’s hard to argue with a rating that has increased from being considered a bottom-half AAC team before Week 1.
The last blow-for-blow game the Tigers were in, they couldn’t keep up with Navy.
I have this lined at Memphis by a touchdown, so there’s some value at anything +10 or better.
Pick: North Texas (+11.5, Bet365)
Colorado State @ Air Force (+7, 45)
This season has been little short of a disaster for Air Force, a team that cannot stop the run, as part of a defense that’s 110th in EPA/Play. This week, they’ve met their match in Colorado State, who’s 118th.
Neither team’s offenses are much better if at all, but the key here is that Colorado State’s lost their best player, wide receiver Tory Horton (who’s got twice as many receiving yards as his next closest teammate) in a passing-centric offense.
If the Rams’ rating has been boosted because they’ve sandwich an OT loss to Oregon State with close wins over bad teams in UTEP and San Jose State, it needs to be bumped back down without Horton, and getting a full touchdown with Air Force is too many points.
Pick: Air Force (+7, -115 at DraftKings)
TCU @ Utah (-3.5, 49.5)
As has become an annual tradition, Cam Rising has finally been ruled out for the season (will we continue the ritual for his 8th season next year?!). With our long national nightmare over, we can move on with our lives, and so can Utah.
When the betting market was on the edge of their seats about whether it was Rising or Isaac Wilson, there was minimal adjustment to the Utes’ rating, and they beat Utah State and Oklahoma State anyway. A home loss to Arizona pushed Kyle Whittingham to put Rising in, but a pair of early 4th-and-short fails against the Wildcats were more to blame for falling behind the Wildcats than anything Zach’s little brother did.
At 1-3 in the conference after losing to Houston (just the Cougars’ second win this season), TCU should be downgraded below their preseason expectations, but if they have, it’s been minimal. The Horned Frogs’ 85th-ranked defense by EPA/Play will be a soft landing spot for Utah’s offense after a pair of losses, but this is more about Utah - the preseason favorite in the Big 12 - getting Wilson ready with more first-team snaps in practice and rallying in what’s become a must-win game at home.