CFB Week 9 betting: The “Saturday 7”
An upset that’s not an upset, and various zig-zag moves in college football
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Our Big Games column and some mid-week broom-work on the podcast did some heavy-lifting in College Football’s Week 8, as the best bets fell to 31-24-3 (56.3%).
To update our Big Games for Week 9, Missouri listed Brady Cook as doubtful, moving the Missouri-Alabama line to -17. A note has been added to follow the betting plan for that game.
North Carolina @ Virginia (-3.5, 59)
It’s dangerous to try to determine motivation, especially when college kids are involved.
Coming out of a bye week is usually a good thing, but when looking at North Carolina with their four straight losses, and a revered head coach that appears to be on his way out (somewhat voluntarily), what’s left to play for? Another trip to a Mayonnaise-centric Bowl game?
Virginia were overmatched last week at Clemson but they fought until the bitter end to cover a big number against the Tigers, a week after coming down to the wire with another more-talented team, Louisville. Now they’re home for a winnable game against a team in disarray whose defense seems worse than their metrics - probably because of a Tar Heels’ schedule with Minnesota, Duke, Charlotte, and UNC-Central on it. Against James Madison, Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech (the only top-30 offense), UNC has allowed 70, 34 and 41 points.
Even with a week to prepare, I doubt there’s anything Mack Brown and company can do to turn around a defense that’s been bad for years. We bet the under on the Heels’ win total before the season, expecting that the offense wouldn’t be able to mask those incompetencies, and that’s been the case.
Pick: Virginia (-3.5, -104 at Pinnacle)
Tulane @ North Texas (+8, 68)
North Texas’s underdog cover went exactly as we planned against the Tigers, with those two teams going score for score until the final gun went off, in a game with a total in the high 60s. The only thing that changes is the opponent and the location, but an 11.5-point ‘dog on the road becoming a 7.5-point ‘dog at home shows that there’s still some value on the Mean Green since Memphis was rated above Tulane before the season.
Admittedly, the Green Wave are likely a better team than Memphis now - surpassing them in market ratings, but coming out of a bye week with 4.7 yards per play against Rice didn’t impress.
Chandler Morris and the Mean Green continue to play up to and beyond their increased rating, while Tulane’s early results - close-but-no-cigar losses against Oklahoma and Kansas State - that increased theirs, are getting further in the rearview mirror.
Pick: North Texas (+8, -112 at DraftKings)
Washington @ No. 13 Indiana (-6.5, 53.5)
Last week, Indiana kicked-in both Nebraska’s and our teeth alike, so the fear is that history repeats itself with another mid-tier Big Ten team coming to Bloomington. At least, FOX isn’t setting up shop there again.
Bettors have a tendency to focus on the negative, so we have to go out of our way to remind ourselves when we’re right. That’s been the case for us with Washington, zig-zagging alongside them as they lost at Rutgers, beat Michigan, and lost at Iowa. The Huskies were off last week, licking their wounds from running out of gas in Iowa City, but also preparing for one of the last undefeateds in the country.
Even after docking U-Dubb for their lost to the Hawkeyes, their rating still gets me to Indiana -6 in this game. The Hoosiers should get credit for trouncing the Cornhuskers, but there has to also be a downgrade for being without starting quarterback, Kurtis Rourke.
Tayven Jackson subbed-in and threw two touchdowns of his own, but drives of 19- and 51-yards against a defense already broken by the Hoosiers doesn’t mean they won’t miss a beat when it’s 0-0. Meanwhile, Nebraska turned the ball over on repeat, including freshman Dylan Raiola’s three interceptions - something Will Rogers (one interception per 70 career pass attempts) doesn’t really do.
Expect the Huskies to play to the top of their range and take care of the ball, keeping the game close against the undefeated home team with all the pressure, and without their experienced QB.
Pick: Washington (+6.5)
No. 11 BYU @ UCF (-2.5, 55.5)
Full disclosure - I got greedy.
When BYU opened -1.5 for their trip to Orlando, I thought maybe those blinded by the Cougars’ undefeated record might bet into this to the point where we might get +3 with Central Florida.
Whoops.
I have this game projected at UCF -1.5, so I’m not surprised that the line has seen the favorite flipped, passing across my projection, even if it’s in the direction of a team that’s lost four straight games and who’ve I referred to as “fraudulent.”
Miami-transfer, Jacurri Brown, has taken over for Arkansas-transfer, KJ Jefferson, providing the Knights a more explosive rusher out of the backfield along with tailback RJ Harvey (890 yards on 6.9 per carry). The two combined for 350 yards on the ground in a near-upset on the road against Iowa State last week, after 178 the week before.
BYU’s playing just their second conference road game this season, and they’re unlikely to get spotted a 21-point lead the way Baylor handed them one a few weeks back. The Cougars, expected to win around five games this season, have had a magical run, and while they may still make the Big 12 title game, I’m betting their undefeated record gets tarnished this Saturday.
Pick: UCF (-2.5, FanDuel)
New Mexico @ Colorado State (-5.5, 65,5)
Don’t look now, but the Lobos have won three straight!
Their rating has crept up accordingly, but how couldn’t it? Given New Mexico was the lowest-rated Mountain West team coming into the season.
The Lobos’ defense has been terrible all season, but, luckily, their last three opponents have also been among the bottom-20 in defensive EPA/Play nationally. New Mexico has hung 50 points on each of them, while giving up between 37 and 45.
Devon Dampier is a menace on the ground and through the air, and he shouldn’t miss a step during this week’s visit to Colorado State and their 116th-rated defense.
As the favorite, the Rams aren’t just being asked to keep up, but separate, and hold onto a lead. However, their 97th-ranked offense (by EPA/Play) is only marginally better than Utah State, Air Force, and New Mexico State.
While the Rams managed a close cover against woeful Air Force last week, their 201 passing yards in the absence of star receiver Tory Horton, wasn’t all that impressive. This lined opened +7, so money has come in on the Lobos, but there’s still some value left in a game New Mexico can win outright.
Pick: New Mexico (+5.5, FanDuel)
No. 5 Texas @ No. 25 Vanderbilt (+18, 53.5)
What’s the betting market supposed to do with a team expected to be the worst power conference team in the country, only they beat Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Kentucky, not mention taking Missouri (No. 7 at the time) to overtime in Columbia?
It’s a resume better than any of those teams that all carry a market rating in the high-60s or better. If you want to be the man, you need to beat the man, as Ric Flair used to bellow. So, aren’t the Commodores a late-60s quality team if they’ve beaten late-60s quality teams?
Admittedly, that doesn’t have the same “Flair” to it.
As we project a point spread for this game, we’ll forgive two things from last week:
Vanderbilt exhaling and not covering in a win over Ball State as four touchdown favorites
Texas losing to Georgia. Sure, we’re supposed to downgrade the Longhorns, but we won’t blame them that the market forgot about the Dawgs.
Given we’re supposed to beat the betting market to the correct opinion of a team (ie. If we think Vanderbilt’s a 65 and the market doesn’t yet), we’ll keep betting on Vandy as an underdog and dare their opponent’s - even Texas - to play so well that they not only win but cover a big spread.
Pick: Vanderbilt (+18.5, Bet365)
No. 3 Penn State @ Wisconsin (+6.5, 47.5)
With 130+ teams, there are plenty of chances to stay stubborn (see: Indiana), ride a team’s wave (see: Washington) or allow for your mind to be changed.
The latter will be the case when it comes to Wisconsin. Call it a personality flaw, that all it took was a 3-game cumulative score of 117-16 to have me buy-in, but here we are, hoping that a step-up in weight class for the Badgers doesn’t come back to bite us.
The Badgers’ losses - to Alabama and USC - suggest that backing them here might be a mistake, but they took a 21-10 lead against the same Trojan team that led Penn State by two touchdowns. Against the Crimson Tide, Braedyn Locke wasn’t given much chance to succeed, entering the game when Tyler Van Dyke got hurt in the first quarter, only to see his tailbacks fumble and the defense give up big play after big play. With a handful of games under his belt, we have faith that Locke can keep up with the Nittany Lions’ more deliberate offense.
During Penn State’s bye week, how much of their preparation was for next week’s mega-tilt in State College with Ohio State? Given that’s a game that even if they lose this week, would give them the inside track (favored in their remaining games) to the Big Ten conference title game and a College Football Playoff spot. Perhaps they’ll find themselves in a tight affair by the time they’re Jumping Around in Madison?