College Football Playoff: Best bets for the Quarterfinals
Is a bye worth anything? And who can overcome their issues to make the CFP semis?
When the opening lines for the College Football Playoff’s first round were posted, I thought there was some sort of mistake.
All the lines - to varying degrees - seemed to be lacking any application of home-field advantage, and it’s not like we hadn’t been told, repeatedly, that the first round was happening on-campus. Here’s a look at how everything opened (consensus line a day after open, projection, opening line) via our first look at all the postseason games:
Notre Dame actually dropped to -7. Penn State moved up a point to -8.5, Texas touched -14, and Ohio State moved up through -7 to -7.5.
All four favorites covered.
While you could hear the cries for MORE campus-site games for the purposes of vibes, college football home-field advantage is such that if you’re also looking for more competitive games (while also maybe banishing low-regarded conference champions to the 9-12 seed line), we shouldn’t steer away from neutral site games in the latter rounds - which also allow us to cling to the tradition of Bowl games and their locations.
After our lesson learned about home teams in Round 1 (make a note!), the quarterfinals have their own added calculus that applies to just one team in each matchup:
What does it mean to have the bye?
(6) Penn State vs. (3) Boise State (+11.5, 53.5)
Fiesta Bowl: 8:00pm ET, Dec. 31
Projected spread: Penn State -10.7
Opening line: Penn State -10We’re staunch believers in strength of schedule in this space, and at first blush, the champion of the Mountain West probably feels a lot like SMU - Penn State’s opponent that was vanquished with relative ease last week, after a regular season without a notable win.
After opening at -10, the line has gone through our projection (without anything for the bye week applied), and has hit -11.5. After all, the Nittany Lions won their playoff opener 38-10, covering comfortably. Of course they should have their rating bumped up!
But…
We watch the games.
Kevin Jennings threw two pick-sixes and neither was his worst throw of the game.
SMU forced a 3-and-out on Penn State’s first drive, then drove down into the Nittany Lions’ red zone. On fourth down, Jennings had a clear path to setup a 1st-and-goal situation but, at the last moment attempted to quickly flip a pass to a wide open tight end in the end zone. The pass fell incomplete and Penn State avoided a trailing game state.
Next came Jennings’ interceptions - three in all, two for PSU scores - and the Nittany Lions were up 14-0 with just 83 total yards on offense. On the road, with their quarterback thoroughly shook and nowhere to turn, the Mustangs’ defense finally gave up something to Penn State, and the game was over at halftime, despite a yardage split of 325-253 for the game.
If you throw Boise State (70/100 in our estimated market rating system) in the same category as SMU (75/100), that’s one thing, but there are considerable differences in this betting market:
Location:
Instead of playing at home, the Nittany Lions play the Broncos in a location that’s of relatively close proximity to their fanbase (who’ve frequented Arizona before)
Any neutrals will be cheering on the underdog, causing a difference in communication ability for Penn State and their opponent
Penn State’s not taking on a warm-weather school in freezing temperatures
Betting line:
Instead of -8.5 the line is -11.5
There doesn’t appear to be a tax applied to the team who’s had longer to prep
A reliable element:
Boise State has a key piece to make life easier on their quarterback - Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty
While Penn State usually has their way with teams of lesser talent and weaker strength of schedule, it’s being forgotten that Penn State got to the CFP without a win any better than edging USC on a sunny day in Southern California, and a close loss to Oregon is no different than the same result Boise had when they faced the Ducks.
Pick: Boise State (+11.5, -112 at DraftKings)
(5) Texas vs. (4) Arizona State (+12.5, 51)
Peach Bowl: 1:00pm ET, Jan. 1
Projected spread: Texas -11.3
Opening line: Texas -14Arizona State suffered one of their two losses this season without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt. A committee that has seemed to care about those sorts of things in the past, wasn’t able to put two and two together, or didn’t think that a 1-loss ASU would be ranked higher than Boise State (they would be). As a result, the Sun Devils are being sent to Atlanta instead of down the road in Glendale, and Longhorn-nation are right back in the same stadium where they narrowly lost the SEC title game, and will likely travel well.
Unlike Penn State, Texas goes from friendly, temperate confines, to the indoors, and their matchup goes from Clemson (rated among the top 15 teams both before the season and now) to Arizona State. For all the attention that Indiana, SMU, and Boise State have gotten as “Cinderella” stories, all three had much higher expectations coming into the season than Arizona State, who were rated nationally on the same level of teams such as Louisiana, South Florida, and Duke.
What happened is that Sam Leavitt and Cam Skattebo have outlasted the thoroughly-flawed teams in the Big 12, catching Kansas and Utah at the right time in their season, stunning Kansas State, edging BYU at home, and dominating Iowa State’s horrendous run defense. While they deserve their current place in the CFP (including the bye!), it doesn’t mean we should expect them to be close in a massive step-up in weight class with Texas.
Naysayers will be concerned about a Texas defense that allowed over 400 yards to Clemson, but 6.1 yards per play isn’t terrible in a game where the Longhorns led by 18 at halftime, forcing the Tigers into 43 pass attempts. I’m more interested in the 3.17 yards per carry in that game, or Georgia’s 3.8 YPC, or the 3.0 YPC that Texas A&M mustered at home.
The only way that Arizona State can hang in with a national title contender like Texas is if Skattebo can dominate, but Texas was seventh in EPA/Play against the run. The closest thing the Sun Devils have seen to that is BYU (26th) and Kansas State (27th). Against K-State they only had 3.24, then 3.5 against BYU.
If the hope is that the Sun Devils can produce offensively in the pass game, they will again be without star receiver, Jordyn Tyson. Meanwhile, an already potent Texas offense looks like they’ll be getting back receiver Isaiah Bond.
Given our projection for the point spread, relative to the open, it’s understandable why this line would come down. However, while not an identical comparison, it all sets up like TCU-Georgia - the National Championship Game after the 2022 season, that featured a surprising story from the Big 12 against a ready-made finished product from the SEC.
Pick: Texas (-12, -110 at Bet365)
(8) Ohio State vs. (1) Oregon (+2.5, 55.5)
Rose Bowl: 5:00pm ET, Jan. 1
Projected spread: Oregon -1.3
Opening line: Ohio State -1I’ll admit, an Oregon estimated market rating of 91/100 does seem high, but we’re talking about the No. 1 team in the country, who aren’t even the highest rated team (that’s Texas, at +320, the favorite to win the title).
Now, on a neutral field at the Rose Bowl, Ohio State didn’t just open as the favorite, they took money to move from -1 to -2.5. On the one hand, the Buckeyes were also a field goal favorite at Oregon earlier this season (which would make them closer to a touchdown favorite on a neutral field back then). On the other hand(s), they lost that game, and are still one game removed from losing to Michigan on their home turf.
In their first round game with Tennessee, Ohio State came out with more enthusiasm, complete comfort in the cold, and a better plan than the Volunteers, in order to dominate. But beware of the college team that plays their best game, as these teams rarely are able replicate that in consecutive matchups. It was hard to do when two wins were required in the 4-team playoff era, and it’s what makes the 12-team format so difficult. Somewhere along the path, you’ll have to win a game where you don’t play at your best.
Dan Lanning and the Ducks have already successfully prepared once for the Buckeyes. The Volunteers dared Will Howard to beat them early, leaving their defensive backs on collective islands with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, and it went poorly, as a pair of deep connections resulted in a 14-0 lead at home. Oregon’s unlikely to make it so easy, and even if they do, their multidimensional offense with Dillon Gabriel and Jordan James can keep up, having already racked up almost 500 yards against the Buckeyes’ defense.
The first matchup could have gone either way (though Ohio State got away with a turnover that wasn’t reviewed early), they’ve made some defensive changes since then, and empowered Howard. However, the Ducks didn’t have arguably their best pass rusher, Jordan Burch, in that first game, and the Buckeyes have their late-season offensive line injuries that make them vulnerable to a good defensive line.
If you joined us on the Ducks to win the National Title back in August, you can otherwise sit this game out, but if the Buckeyes’ big bounce-back win over Tennessee is what’s making this game anything other than a pick’em, it’s worth taking the points.
Pick: Oregon (Wait to see if a +3 (-120 or better) comes available, otherwise bet +2.5 by kickoff)
(7) Notre Dame vs. (2) Georgia (-1, 45)
Sugar Bowl: 8:00pm ET, Jan. 1
Projected spread: Georgia -0.5
Opening line: Notre Dame -1We laid it and laughed… and laughed… and laughed.
Notre Dame -7 got a little weird late, and the chuckling about Indiana’s inclusion in the CFP dulled briefly before the final onside kick was recovered, but using the Irish to fade the Hoosiers was gratifying.
Like the other teams to advance, though, the home atmosphere and a couple of high-leverage plays (like a 98-yard rushing touchdown, for example) might be skewing perception going into the next round.
Keep in mind, as noted above, the projection that makes Georgia the slightest of favorites is built on a rating of Notre Dame that made them a 10.5-point favorite in the first round!
Beyond the Irish win, the reason to knock the Bulldogs down a peg or two is centralized at the quarterback position, since Carson Beck is out for the season. Those pro-Georgia will refer to the “spark” that Gunner Stockton gave them in the second half of the SEC title game. Those with the con arguments will reference how things slowed down in the fourth quarter and he had a near-catastrophic interception.
None of that is relevant a month later, since, with a bye, Kirby Smart has had the maximum allotted practice time to get Stockton comfortable with what he needs to be ready for. We referenced the Longhorns as the favorite to win the Natty - the Bulldogs beat them twice (neither at home) with 302 total passing yards from their quarterbacks. At one point this season, Carson Beck, and his interceptions, were considered a liability. How much does Georgia really need out of the quarterback to win the Sugar Bowl?
Beck’s isn’t the only injury that had a fanbase gasping mid-game. The Irish lost their leading sack-getter, Rylie Mills, against Indiana. Georgia can get away with piecing it together at quarterback because they’re often so dominant in the trenches. With Mills out, Notre Dame becomes that much more weakened in a place where they’ve been more powerful against their toughest opponents this season (Indiana, USC, Louisville, Army, Navy).
With enough time to adapt to the inexperience of their new starting quarterback, and to get the rest of the team foaming at the mouth, Smart’s Bulldogs should play at the same level they did anytime they felt their backs were against the wall this season (wins vs. Tennessee and Texas twice).