Hey Matt, on the Conn Smythe odds talk, what do you think of the "Position of winner" markets? I'm seeing "Center" listed at -500 in some spots. Seems like good value if you don't think Bobrovsky is that likely. Encompasses all the other reasonable picks (McD, Drai, Bennett, Barkov). Or do you think it makes more sense to just bet more on McD/Drai/Bennett individually?
Thanks for the response! I already have positions on McD and Bennett (per your advice). I just was considering this angle because I don't have a position on Draisaitl, and after the 2 goals last night I think there is a very plausible path he could take the Conn Smythe if the Oilers win, he is close in points with McD (which he is) and he has a large edge in goal scoring. The "Center" angle covers that and nets us more profit if McD/Bennett/Barkov win.
Just come concern with perhaps McDavid fatigue for the Smythe, and if Drai ends with like a 13-8 goal edge on McDavid, which seems plausible.
Maybe it’s worth a bet on Draisaitl just to cover your outlay? Depends what kind of risk you’re willing to accept.
My hope is that there’s enough understanding that many of Draisaitl’s goals (like the winner) are a function of McDavid’s dominance (right down to Barkov playing McD when they’re on different lines).
Hey Matt, on the Conn Smythe odds talk, what do you think of the "Position of winner" markets? I'm seeing "Center" listed at -500 in some spots. Seems like good value if you don't think Bobrovsky is that likely. Encompasses all the other reasonable picks (McD, Drai, Bennett, Barkov). Or do you think it makes more sense to just bet more on McD/Drai/Bennett individually?
Also, YES to golf betting talk.
Hey Traviss, you’re right, that’s essentially the “no” price on Bobrovsky’s yes at around +430.
Which is a tighter straddle than “usual”, but still not exactly a steal.
It’s possible he runs up a couple shutouts and Florida wins, so there is a path. I just don’t like it.
I much prefer McDavid at -150 vs Oilers -225, and wouldn’t bet Draisaitl.
I think if late to Bennett, 20-1 is still a decent deal, but even if we think he should be +500, that’s still gonna lose like 85% of the time.
Thanks for the response! I already have positions on McD and Bennett (per your advice). I just was considering this angle because I don't have a position on Draisaitl, and after the 2 goals last night I think there is a very plausible path he could take the Conn Smythe if the Oilers win, he is close in points with McD (which he is) and he has a large edge in goal scoring. The "Center" angle covers that and nets us more profit if McD/Bennett/Barkov win.
Just come concern with perhaps McDavid fatigue for the Smythe, and if Drai ends with like a 13-8 goal edge on McDavid, which seems plausible.
Yep. All of that is true.
Maybe it’s worth a bet on Draisaitl just to cover your outlay? Depends what kind of risk you’re willing to accept.
My hope is that there’s enough understanding that many of Draisaitl’s goals (like the winner) are a function of McDavid’s dominance (right down to Barkov playing McD when they’re on different lines).