NCAA Tournament betting preview: East Region
Duke’s march to San Antonio and seven ATS bets
You can assess value in a variety of ways.
In the West Region, we only had one bet from Sunday night’s post-Selection Show live podcast, which had bets based on trying to beat the market to the closing point spread.
Here, in the East, we did a better job clipping good numbers, which leads to the second question of NCAA Tournament week - now what? Or, “Do I stick with the initial instinct or, after digging deeper, come back on the other side?”
East Region bracket
Odds to win East Region
(Provided by Pinnacle)
First-round best bets
Here’s every matchup in the region, with the power rating, project points differential, projected line, opening line, and current spread.
(14) Montana vs. (3) Wisconsin (-17, 151.5)
Sunday night live pod bet: NoneThis line’s been hovering right around our projection, but we’re going to back the underdog based more on circumstantial evidence.
In general, we want to be wary of teams that looked good last weekend, which usually comes with a conference championship and a team coming off an emotional high, but one who paid a physical toll.
The Badgers likely have enough depth of talent to avoid an upset, but they’re not being done any favors by the committee, who has sent them out to Denver. Getting a 3-seed (despite losing to 5-seed Michigan) is great, but playing at elevation against a team from Missoula (3200 feet above sea-level), less than four days after playing four games in four days, is no picnic.
If Wisconsin can get by Montana, they’ll be tasked with another high-elevation team in BYU or the intensity of VCU. Which goes to show seeding is only part of the equation when the bracket comes out.
Pick: Montana (+17)
(11) VCU vs. (6) BYU (-3, 146.5)
Sunday night live pod bet: BYU (-3.5)If Wisconsin, who showed tired legs on Sunday, is vulnerable to losing this weekend, maybe it’s to the winner of this matchup.
Thankfully, BYU’s power rating didn’t get out of control, since they bowed out to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament. In fact, the market has actually gone the other way. After opening -2.5 and quickly going to -3.5, this line has settled in -3, a couple points shy of our projection.
VCU dominated the glass in the A10, but despite their reputation for being a perimeter-oriented team due to making the most threes in the Big 12, BYU held up well on the boards in a more rugged conference (+2.2 margin).
The Rams haven’t seen a team with the outside-inside talent of the Cougars all season, as they lost anything remotely close to a non-conference challenge (Seton Hall, Nevada and New Mexico), while catching Colorado State at the right time.
VCU joins Wisconsin in Denver, as all four games at that site feature teams who played in a championship game on Sunday, and like the Badgers, their opponent also plays at a high elevation (Provo, Utah is at 4500 feet above sea level).
Pick: BYU (-3.5)
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Join in! (9) Baylor vs. (8) Mississippi St. (-1, 144.5)
Sunday night live pod bet: Mississippi St (+1.5)Well, this is an interesting quandary.
Baylor opens on our projection of -1.5, and, as was given out on Sunday’s live podcast, we took the Bulldogs.
As a refresher, the reasoning has a lot of “eye test” to it.
If what’s required to beat a solid TEAM like Mississippi State is a performance beyond expectations from Baylor, we haven’t seen the Bears turn their individual talent level into on-court production all season. Whereas, Mississippi State is a better example of a team whose sum is not only equal-to, but more than, their parts.
Strangely, the market has seemed to agree with that (or some other breakdown of the game), as the favorite has flipped. While that’s a heartening confirmation of our read on the market, they still have to play the game.
Having taken the Bulldogs to the Tournament in each of his three seasons in Starkville, Chris Jans is still looking for his first win for Cowbell country, but he got one in his third try at New Mexico State, and hopefully does so again here, covering all numbers.
Pick: Mississippi St (+1.5 from Sunday night)
(15) Robert Morris vs. (2) Alabama (-23.5, 165.5)
Sunday night live pod bet: NoneThere’s three off-court reasons to bite the bullet and try to take on an Alabama team, who, if they’re on, can blowout just about anyone.
The line has drifted so far out from our projection of -19.1 and oddsmakers opening line of -20.5 that there has to be value on Robert Morris here.
The Colonials have sold out their ticket allotment in Cleveland, just down the road from Pittsburgh-area Moon Township.
When it comes to the betting market, Robert Morris has only failed to cover one time since February 2nd, when they only beat Green Bay by nine as a 13.5-point favorite.
Under Nate Oats, the Crimson Tide won by 13 as a 2-seed, by 21 as a 1-seed, and by 13 as a 4-seed last year. So, they haven’t started the tourney with a win by the margin needed here.
We’ll see if Robert Morris can score enough on Alabama’s 31st-rated defense via KenPom, but with the line this high, we can’t turn away.
Pick: Robert Morris (+23.5)
(10) Vanderbilt vs. (7) Saint Mary’s (-4, 136.5)
Sunday night live pod bet: Vanderbilt (+4.5)Similarly to the above, our projected line (which makes this game a virtual pick’em) is too far off from what’s currently available to be ignored. The betting market has paid some attention. Saint Mary’s opened -5.5, was immediately bet down to -4.5 (where we gave it out on Sunday night) and it’s taken another tick down to -4.
Vanderbilt boasts a better ShotQuality score (24th nationally), and for all the lauding of the Gaels’ efficiency, Mark Byington’s Commodores have a better “Rim & 3” rate.
Saint Mary’s main skill is controlling the pace, as Randy Bennett refuses to see his team get sped up. Only five teams played at a slower tempo this season, but last year, Byington’s James Madison squad upset Wisconsin in the first round. The Badgers were the 304th-slowest team nationally, so Byington has an idea of what he’s up against here.
For all the respect there is for Bennett as a coach, it’s been 15 years since his team has made it out of the first weekend, which makes me even less interested in laying points in a game whose total is so low.
Pick: Vanderbilt (+4.5, from Sunday night)
(13) Akron vs. (4) Arizona (-14, 166.5)
Sunday night live pod bet: Akron (+14)Akron didn’t seem at all fazed when our pick for the MAC Tournament, Miami, took an 18-point first-half lead on Saturday, and that’s as terrifying as the villain in the boxing movie not being rocked by the hero’s best punch in the first round. Four days later and the Zips are now the protagonist, going against the big, bad, Wildcats.
Arizona opened -15.5, but Akron was quickly bet down to +14.5 and eventually +14, as it drifts toward our projection of -13.2. Likely because the Zips were a dominant conference champion who are capable of maintaining their composure better than this guy:
In last year’s first round, Akron was competitive for the first half with Creighton until the Bluejays went blackout from three, making 10-of-17 and shooting over 50% from the field. The Zips couldn’t keep up, going 6/28 from deep, but that team shot 32% from three. This year’s group is 36%.
The Wildcats don’t shoot like last year’s Creighton, and if they can’t complete dominate a decent rebounding team in Akron on the glass, the Zips should be able to linger long enough to stay under this number.
Pick: Akron (+14, from Sunday)
(12) Liberty vs. (5) Oregon (-7, 139.5)
Sunday night live pod bet: Oregon (-5.5)On Sunday’s show, we noted that the opening line of Oregon -5.5 was short of our projection of -6.4, but we had no idea bettors would weigh in to the degree where the line would go up to -6.5 on Sunday night and -7.5 on Monday afternoon.
From a pure value perspective, Oregon -5.5 was valuable, and Liberty +7.5 is potentially just as valuable. So, this game becomes a debate about whether to flip or hold.
My faith in Dana Altman - with time to prepare - is going to keep me on the Ducks, as Oregon’s been able to deploy the various defensive strategies with this year’s group. The Ducks fell short on the Big Ten tournament’s second day with what looked like a lazy performance against Michigan State. Assuming they were shown how they were a step slow against a really good team, they should be ready to go against the inferior Flames.
Pick: Oregon (-5.5 from Sunday’s podcast)
Best bet to win the East
Duke (-120, DraftKings)
This is about two bets, or more specifically, implied probabilities:
What’s the likelihood that Duke makes the East Regional Final?
Their first game is a walkover
The betting market should have Duke as at least a 10-point favorite in a matchup with either Mississippi State or Baylor
The toughest matchup in the Sweet 16, against Arizona, would also see Duke as a around a 10-point favorite
Parlaying two 10+ point favorites would create odds of around -300
What is the projected moneyline of a regional final matchup for Duke?
If Duke plays Alabama, the moneyline is no less than -210
All of that assumes that the best teams in the East Region make it to the point where they play the Blue Devils, and that Duke’s market rating isn’t higher than our own projections (and we’ve seen that Duke has been rated beyond those).
A -300 and -210 parlay equates to odds around -110, so a bet on Duke at -120 isn’t just about securing a good moneyline price for a game three rounds from now, it’s a bet that will likely be valuable compared to even the toughest road for the Blue Devils.
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