NCAA Tournament: Betting the Final Four
How to play both Auburn-Florida and Houston-Duke, with a player prop for each
With the expansion of the College Football Playoff giving us games peppered throughout December - their version of the NCAA Tournament’s “First Four,” there aren’t many long “Christmas Eve-style” waits in sports any more.
The NFL’s Divisional Round to Conference Championship Sunday is the only thing comparable to this week’s Sunday-afternoon-to-Saturday-night gap leading up to the Final Four when it comes to weeks that feel a lot longer than they are.
Though, in 2023, I got married during this gap in the schedule before the Final Four. Things moved a lot quicker that week.
I met my wife in February of 2018.
By March, we had to have “the talk” - How to fill out an NCAA Tournament bracket.
“The first thing…”, I said to her, was “…to advance all the No. 1 seeds into the second round. After all, a 1-seed had never lost to a 16-seed, and these games were almost never close.
Three days later, Virginia lost to UMBC.
Two weeks ago, one of my oldest friends was filling out a bracket for the second time ever. His resulting effort saw all No. 1s and No. 2s into the Elite Eight, and I instructed him, “Ok, that’s unlikely. Remember, there’s often many upsets, but I do think there’s probably a drop-off from the No. 2s to the No. 3s, unless Texas Tech gets healthy. So, keep this if you want, but definitely don’t take all the 1-seeds into your Final Four. That’s happened once ever, and may never again.”
Whoops.
(1) Auburn vs. (1) Florida (-2.5, 159.5)
Projected line: Auburn (-1.2)
Opening line: Florida (-2.5)If you look at our projected line versus the current point spread and blindly take Auburn +2.5, I’d have a hard time arguing with you. That strategy has gone 41-21-2 during the NCAA Tournament, and the Gators were a shocking -1.4 against Texas Tech before a game they almost lost, so maybe it IS that simple.
However, since betting tournaments/playoffs is a linear exercise (previously-made futures bets matter) and we’re holding a ticket on Florida (+430) to win the national title, this is a stay-away situation. Had the Gators been underdogs, there’s a world in which we’d add to our position, but, as we take a look at how the betting market’s perceived each team, things have moved away from what was previously considered a pick’em matchup.
Estimated Market Rating path
As an added feature for the Elite Eight and onwards, we’re tracking the path of a team’s estimated market rating (EMR) throughout the tournament.
Despite covering (barely) against Michigan State, Auburn’s seen their rating drop. This is a hypothesis, because the alternative - moving the Gators up after they barely survived Texas Tech - would make no sense.
A best guess on why there’s a Tigers’ downgrade? Maybe some concern about the availability/effectiveness of Johni Broome after he banged up his right (off) elbow? With a clean bill of health between now and tip, the line may tighten up.
Perhaps paradoxically, the Gators had their own big man who was potentially playing through something last Saturday. After being limited to just 14 minutes against Maryland when he left mid-game, Alex Condon was not very good against Texas Tech. He’ll need to be better here, given that he was a key part of Florida’s road win at Auburn, with 17 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists.
The Gators won their lone meeting with the Tigers despite not having Alijah Martin available, and they’ve since added 7’1 Micah Handgloten back into their front-court rotation of four players at 6’9 or taller. Both players make the Gators deeper, as part of a group that sometimes needs heroics from someone like Thomas Haugh off the bench.
While we’re going to hold tight, white-knuckling our Florida futures ticket, if you need something on the game in its entirety, the over is worth a look for a half-unit.
In the first matchup, neither team shot the lights out, but they played at a pace where 134 shot attempts went up in a 90-81 game.
Auburn has a tendency towards the careless play, while Florida turned the ball over 17 times against the Terps and allowed 22 points off turnovers to the Red Raiders. That might add up to some quick possessions.
Against Michigan State, where the No. 1 defensive goal would have been to slow the Spartans’ fast break (just nine points allowed), Auburn still managed to score 70, despite making just 7-of-25 threes and shooting 55% at the free-throw line.
There’s always some concern about a cavernous dome affecting the shooting percentages in the Final Four, but the Alamodome is a relatively tighter space.
In the 2018 Final Four, while the non-number-ones, Michigan and Loyola-Chicago struggled to score, the two 1-seeds - Kansas and Villanova - played in a national semifinal and had no problems in a 95-79 game.
In a matchup that pits two of the top four teams in ShotQuality and two of the top three in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rating, the players on the court know what a good shot looks like, and will play at a fast enough pace to make more than the market thinks.
Pick: Over 159.5 total points
Will Richard: Over 1.5 threes made (+100, Bet365)
Will Richard missed both of his 3-point attempts against Texas Tech, in a seemingly shy game for a shooter who was anything but this season, averaging 2.0 threes on 5.9 attempts.
Richard wasn’t particularly efficient against the Tigers earlier this year, but he wasn’t bashful, getting up nine triples against a defense that will be focused on cutting off the dribble penetration of Walter Clayton and Alijah Martin, and the offensive rebounding of the Gators’ lanky front-court fleet.
After a slow start to this season, where he was 12/48 from deep in the Gators’ first nine games, Richard made more than one three in 17 of their last 29 games. Using that 58% clip, fair odds would be more like -140, and a 3% edge worth betting would be -125 or better.
(1) Houston vs. (1) Duke (-5, 136.5)
Projected line: Duke (-3.2)
Opening line: Duke (-4.5)The first move in this betting market was toward Duke, and I don’t think anyone’s surprised by that.
The Blue Devils couldn’t quite pull away from Arizona, so a 7-point win wasn’t quite enough to make Duke 4-0 ATS this tournament. That misfortune hasn’t slowed Duke bettors, despite a matchup this Saturday that’s considerably different than the ones that have led them to San Antonio.
Estimated Market Rating path
As an added feature for the Elite Eight and onwards, we’re tracking the path of a team’s estimated market rating (EMR) throughout the tournament.
The one tick-down for Duke came after the Arizona game, while Houston only deviated away from their market rating before taking on Purdue - who we’ve noted hadn’t been treated fairly by bettors all tournament, going 3-0 ATS thanks to discounted spreads.
The Cougars struggled to put away both the Boilermakers and Gonzaga before that, but no one is asking Houston to run away with this game. Instead, KenPom’s No. 1 team in defensive efficiency just has to stay close.
Duke’s path to the Alamo asked them to out-class the defenses of Baylor (63rd), Arizona (37th), and Alabama (26th). Those teams’ defenses are barely tournament-worthy, and definitely fall outside of a defensive “sweet 16,” let alone a Final Four. Meanwhile, Houston just out-willed the 3rd-best defensive team in the country in Tennessee, which should prepare them for Duke (4th) and their length.
The Blue Devils’ game plan to limit Alabama’s offensive effectiveness by overplaying the Crimson Tide’s relatively small guards (6’1 Mark Sears and 6’1 Aden Holloway) behind the 3-point line worked perfectly, since Alabama didn’t have the muscle up front to make them pay. However, now it’s time to play with the big boys, who’ve been around the block a few times.
While the first game proves our Gators ticket valuable, since they’re already favored (rightly or wrongly), this is the game we’ve been waiting for in that the market hasn’t made a similar adjustment yet. In a matchup that’s less about numbers and more about who’s able to close off the valves to the basket, Duke is overbought.
In last year’s Sweet 16 matchup between Kelvin Sampson and Jon Scheyer, Houston only got 13 minutes out of star point guard Jamal Shead, going from a 6-point lead to a 3-point loss after their leader went down. While Duke isn’t the same team as they were last year, that might be the problem, in a way. As good as this group is, they haven’t faced a combination of athleticism and defensive connection that the more veteran Cougars bring.
The Blue Devils are getting all the due credit for having lost just once since November, but Houston has that same accolade on their resume, only in a much tougher league. With three of the Cougars’ four losses coming in overtime (the other coming to Auburn in the second game of the season), if it takes more than 40 minutes to settle this one, having five points in our pocket will help, but I don’t think we’ll need them.
Pick: Houston (+5)
J’Wan Roberts: Over 6.5 rebounds (-115, Bet365)
Scott Van Pelt calls games against the Cougars (and the rare team like them), “adult swim.” As in, you have be of legal age to enter this pool. J’Wan Roberts has been old enough to do everything but rent a car for quite some time now, and his presence makes the paint deep waters for opponents.
Amazingly, Roberts wasn’t needed against Tennessee, as foul trouble put him on the bench for all but 16 minutes, and he only had two rebounds. Similarly, he had a quiet game against SIUE, after missing all but 18 minutes of the Big 12 Tournament.
When Roberts plays 30 or more minutes, he’s wrangled at least seven rebounds in 12 of those 22 games (and in both instances this tournament). That’s not a huge percentage, but in four of the other 10 he had six. Kansas (42), Iowa State (46), Arizona State (44), and West Virginia (43) averaged just 43.75 shots in those games, while Duke averages 58.8 attempts per game.
More attempts means more misses, and if Roberts stays out of foul trouble, he’ll be playing 30+ minutes in an all-hands-on-deck game, and should be able to battle for at least seven boards against Duke’s freshman-laden front-court.
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