One of the worst teams in the league last season, gets new ownership, new management, and revamps almost everything about the team, keeping only the best parts of a group that finished second-last, and it just fits. But it’s not perfect. They don’t win all the games, and half of the ones that they do have the type of finish usually only played out on Friday Night Lights: Season 1 (only without the general involvement of Minka Kelly).
The Commanders - projected to win six games this season - are the type of underdog story that we don’t get anymore in the NFL.
Another thing that doesn’t happen anymore? The betting market not catching up to a team’s success. Underdogs have never been more palatable for bettors (which likely attributes to favorites having such a good ATS record this season), so the Commanders ARE getting credit for what they’ve done to get to their first NFC Championship since before FNL was even a movie.
If the Eagles didn’t have that mega-swoon at the end of last season, we’re likely all looking at Philadelphia like a super-power, instead of with the raised eyebrow that oddsmakers seemed to when they set an opening line of Eagles -4.5. A line that was almost immediately evaluated as incorrect. Why? Let’s dig into it with clear eyes and full hearts (Can’t lose!… unless, of course, it does).
Commanders @ Eagles (-6, 47.5)
We track this stuff for a reason, using an easy-to-digest scale of 100, so that we know what the line was going to be without the brain-pollution of recency bias, since we tend to overreact to the game(s) we just saw.
Based on the Commanders’ estimated market rating (EMR) going into last week - where they closed +8.5 at Detroit (and +3 at Tampa Bay) - Washington was considered a 53/100 or a slightly above-average team. Meanwhile, the Eagles closed an eyelash shy of -7 at home to the Rams, and the only reason they didn’t at least push that number is because of a missed extra point (or two). That move up to -7 pushed their rating up alongside the Lions and Ravens at a league-high 75. Ironically, they were the only one of the three to survive and yet, their rating dropped when oddsmakers opened the line for the NFC Championship.
A 75 playing a home game against a 53 would normally result in a fair point spread of -8.5. So, when this game opened -4.5, any first bet had to be on the Eagles, before even digging into the game handicap. Sure enough, the line went quickly on the move - a rarity this deep into the postseason, up to -6.
I was surprised to go back and look at their first meeting, to find out that the Eagles were just a 4.5-point underdog in Philadelphia. The Eagles covered pretty comfortably, and five weeks later they were a 4-point favorite on the road for the rematch in Washington.
A team rating combo that, if you flipped home-field advantage, would make the Eagles around -7 if it were played in Philly that week.
No matter how they did it, beating the Lions is going to give the Commanders the market credit for a boost in their rating, and I have no problem going into the high 50s with Washington, while still remembering that they were in some serious trouble against the Falcons and Buccaneers - a virtual and literal elimination game, respectively. But that’s not enough to get us down to even -6 for this game, so either Washington is being rated higher or Philadelphia’s getting a significant downgrade.
The “still-alive” estimated market ratings
We’re helped in estimating a market rating by factoring lookahead Super Bowl lines:
We already know the Bills and Chiefs are rated as equals (and the AFC Championship spread favors Kansas City entirely due to home-field advantage), which is why the lines are the same regardless of who the Commanders or Eagles face. Using a rating of 56 for the Commanders, we come up with an identical -4.5 for their potential AFC opponent, especially since their involvement would mean a win in Philadelphia that would boost their rating further.
The interesting thing is that the Bills and Chiefs are currently favored over the Eagles, which, of course, means the Eagles’ rating has fallen below the remaining AFC teams despite their own win last week. Even if you move the Bills and Chiefs up for their wins, the Eagles appear to be dropped down out of the 70s.
With few exceptions, we expect the Super Bowl-winning team to finish the season with a rating in the 70s.
Obviously, even with a correction towards the Eagles, the line’s not going anywhere near -8.5, and the early betting on the Eagles that’s pushed the line up, actually means that buy-back on the Commanders is going to come even earlier than if the line was simply opened at +7. Bettors hoping for an opportunity to middle this game won’t have the patience to wait for +7, and maybe not even +6.5. The potential ceiling is likely Commanders +6 (+100).
It didn’t end up burning them last week in Detroit, but the Commanders lost starting guard Sam Cosmi to a torn ACL. It’s an injury that doesn’t bode well with Jalen Carter’s presence in the middle of the Eagles’ defense. On the outside, Philadelphia has the defenders to matchup with Terry McLaurin, who managed just 10 yards in the first matchup with Philadelphia, and 60 in the second. A 58-yard touchdown on a screen pass isn’t in the cards this week, nor is six touchdowns against a defense light-years better than Detroit’s.
The Rams really started moving the ball against the Eagles when Quinyon Mitchell left the game, but all signs point to him being able to go. If he’s lost again midway through the NFC Championship, at least the Eagles know what that looks like and should have a better contingency plan in case of emergency.
Offensively, even if Hurts’ mobility is limited, the Eagles aren’t a team that turns the ball over, so numerous swings in expected points won’t likely be there to help the Commanders keep a lead the way they did against the Lions.
While it’s worth waiting to see if -5.5 comes back, the Eagles are a valuable bet in a game that should be closer to -7, as we hope for more consistent kicking from Jake Elliott.
Pick: Eagles (-6, -110 at Bet365)
Jayden Daniels: Over 10.5 rush attempts (-115 at Bet365)
Quarterback rushing is about opportunity - the QB has to see a chance to run and take it. If he doesn’t want to go, he doesn’t have to.
Early in the season, Daniels’ inexperience led to an extra willingness to take off, as well as Kliff Kingsbury knowing that, when in doubt, a default play-call to a designed run was rarely going to be a bad idea. Daniels ran 10+ times in four of his first five games.
Then Daniels took a hard hit early against Carolina, and perhaps not-so-coincidentally had double-digit carries in just nine of 11 remaining regular-season games.
Two of those games came against the Eagles, whose defense provided enough of a deterrent to keep Daniels at just seven and nine rush attempts, while the Commanders still wanted to limit the hits that he took. Plus, in the second game, Washington trailed throughout the game, so Daniels threw the ball a season-high 39 times, having enough success to throw five touchdowns. When he ran it was for big yardage.
Since that game, Daniels has got back to using his legs in the Commanders must-win games, running 16 times against the Falcons, then 13 and 16 times in the Commanders’ two playoff games. If the line is 10.5 because Daniels averaged 9.4 rushes per game in the regular season, and the Eagles kept him under 10, this is an exploitable bet deep into the prop market menu.
Brian Robinson: Longest rush - Under 10.5 yards (-105 at DraftKings)
One of many successes the Commanders had on offense last week in Detroit, was being able to hand Brian Robinson the ball and have him run straight-ahead untouched, repeatedly.
How likely do you think it is that those plays will work against the Eagles’ defense?
Of the 26 carries that Robinson’s had against the Eagles in two games this season, Robinson managed an 18-yard run in the second carry, and no more than 8-yarder in the next 24. That math’s out to just a 4% chance of running for 11+ yards on any given carry, so it would take at least 13 carries for this to be a 50/50 bet.
Lined at 9.5 carries (with juice to the under), Robinson isn’t likely to get enough chances to make going over this total a good bet.
Zach Ertz: Over 3.5 receptions (-128 at FanDuel)
Apparently, Nick Sirianni was quite impressed with his team holding former Eagle, Zach Ertz, to just one catch in their last game. Of course, the Eagles couldn’t stop anything else, blowing their lead, thanks to repeated long pass connections to Commanders’ receivers.
Last week, the Eagles were willing to give up seven catches to Rams’ tight end Tyler Higbee and two more (plus a touchdown that was #SignificantToSome) to Colby Parkinson, a week after Tucker Kraft caught five balls. Stuffing the run and not getting burned on the outside is a good enough defensive game plan.
With Daniels’ reliance on Ertz in big moments, and the strength of the Eagles’ defense being their corners, Ertz should get more than his standard 5+ targets, and haul in four or more.
A.J. Brown: Over 4.5 receptions (+100)
Maybe A.J. Brown is feeling better?
After not being needed against Green Bay, Brown was targeted seven times against the Rams. The snow (and good Rams defense) prevented Hurts and Brown from connecting more than twice, and the second-half was mostly the Saquon Barkley Show, anyway.
The Eagles seem to like a matchup for Brown against the Commanders, as he was thrown to 15 times in the Week 16 matchup (and had eight targets in Week 11).
If Hurts isn’t feeling as good, and the Commanders dare him to beat them, Brown’s going to get enough chances to haul in five balls, something he did in 10 of the 13 games he played in this season.
Kenneth Gainwell: Over 10.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Against the Rams, Gainwell’s usage was odd. One carry, 10 yards, on just six snaps. We’re used to Gainwell getting his usual four carries, as he did in previous matchups with the Commanders. If Hurts’ sore knee means that he’ll be running less, that means the Eagles will be relying on their tailbacks to take advantage of a Commanders’ run defense that allowed the second-most rush yardage per carry this season, and was repeatedly gashed by Jahmyr Gibbs. Gainwell should spell Barkley a little more often this Sunday, and get enough work to clear this short yardage total.
Jahan Dotson: Longest reception - Over 3.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings)
A member of the all-cardio team, Jahan Dotson plays between 35% and 64% of the offensive snaps but only has a catch in 11 of the 18 games this season. However, if the Eagles are forced to throw more than usual, Dotson’s going to be a similar option to Tim Patrick and Kalif Raymond - tertiary Lions receivers who combined for seven targets against the Commanders. One catch should be enough, since every time Dotson had a catch in a game, at least one went for four yards or more.
Zach Ertz: Anytime touchdown (+295, DraftKings)
There’s no worse feeling than when Ertz scores a touchdown and we didn’t bet on it.
Ertz closed the season with touchdowns in five of seven games (a streak that started with a touchdown against the Eagles), caught one last week, and got the target on a key fourth down against the Buccaneers. At nearly 3-to-1 odds, we’ll play on Ertz to get a modicum of revenge on Sirianni.
We cashed on the over with Dyami Brown last week, and oddsmakers bumped his yardage up almost 10 yards. It’s a reflection of Daniels’ turning to Brown as his second option late in the season. Meanwhile, veteran Jamison Crowder has cut into Olamide Zaccheaus’s snaps. However, that’s only caused a lengthening in the odds to score for a player who often has a play called for him in the red zone, including a look in each of the Commanders’ two playoff games.
Jeremy McNichols: Anytime touchdown (+1700, FanDuel)
Let’s take a half-unit and put it towards the Commanders’ third running back, who, for reasons that are admittedly unclear, swooped in for a touchdown just last week. That alone is enough to trigger a small bet at a running back at 17-to-1, before even noting that it was McNichols’ fifth touchdown of the season.
A.J. Brown: Anytime touchdown (+155, DraftKings)
The matchup and some lingering soreness indicated that Brown wasn’t needed against the Packers, and last week, Brown almost hauled in a long touchdown, but the weather wasn’t conducive to much more than explosive run plays out of the Eagles’ offense.
His lack of production has stretched Brown’s touchdown odds out to a level that suggest his touchdown percentage to be around 40%. Considering Brown scored seven touchdowns in 13 games this season, there’s some value at this number.
Dallas Goedert: Anytime touchdown (+300, FanDuel)
A healthy Dallas Goedert has received between four and 11 targets in each game he’s finished this season, and we’ve seen what he’s capable of with his Wild Card round stiff-arm exhibition touchdown against the Packers.
The Eagles’ tight end racked up another four catches for 56 yards last week, but with Philadelphia’s touchdowns coming from 44 (Hurts), 62 (Barkley), and 78 (Barkley) yards out, the Eagles’ offense only ventured into the red zone twice, and one of those was a 1st-and-goal from the 10, where Barkley immediately took it down to the 2-yard line, setting off a series of running attempts. With the expectation this week of better weather for passing and more intermediate opportunities to score, Goedert is a good bet at 3-to-1 odds.
