NFL Market Report: A first look at how teams are being rated
Did the NFL Draft make an impact on the sportsbooks’ first significant odds offering?
Shedeur Sanders is a boat.
When it comes to drafting quarterbacks, for NFL teams, it’s like the old saying, “Boat owners’ two best days are the day they buy a boat and the day they sell it.”
There are exceptions, of course. Otherwise, people would never buy boats - accepting the hassle that comes with it in exchange for those occasional glorious moments on the water.
Similarly, every once in a while, the drafted quarterback IS worth it - Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, etc. But the list of quarterbacks not worth a first-round selection is much longer.
After the first round, NFL teams don’t get the option of adding a fifth year to the contract of their “quarterback of the future,” and, since the plan in drafting one that high is to keep them for a long time and for as cheaply as possible, buying one in the second or third rounds isn’t a good investment.
So, while Sanders might be a better player than the linebacker, receiver, safety, or any potential plug-and-play starter at the other positions, drafting him (or any other QB) in the next couple of rounds is a luxury.
Regardless of ALL the opinions, hot takes, and conspiracy theories spewed by the “talent evaluators,” Draftniks, and NFL betting content creators (asked by their employer to spend months digging into betting markets based entirely on hearsay, conjecture, and even, on occasion, Boulder-initiated ballyhoo), the super-sized flea market that is the NFL Draft didn’t provide enough demand for Sanders’ services.
For a deeper look at why Sanders’ situation is a “prime” example of why betting the NFL Draft has become a waste of time, here’s Monday’s THE WINDOW podcast.
It’s possible the Browns get worthwhile value out of what they paid for Sanders. After all, in the end, they didn’t pay much in draft capital, and if he’s good enough for second contract, then this 5th-rounder will have been proven valuable. However, there were 143 other chances for all 32 teams to buy Sanders at the progressively decreasing sale price, and they opted not to. Presumably, not wanting to take on the auxiliary responsibilities that come with a decent, but potentially troublesome schooner.
NFL Power Ratings
While the Sanders slide (from a perch he was never entitled to be picked at in the first place) was the big story, the NFL spent the rest of the weekend trying to improve.
In mid-March, amidst the college hoops madness, sportsbooks reminded the betting public of the NFL’s existence during the 2.4 seconds we might have not been thinking about football by releasing initial regular-season win (RSW) totals for the 2025 season.
While that’s titillating, there is zero reason to make a bet on a team’s regular-season win total in March… or April… or May.
The best part about the NFL is that its short season means that betting any futures market in August only ties up your betting capital for 4-5 months. Making a bet now on a market with a 20-cent straddle, and having the sportsbook hold your money for twice that amount of time, is not good betting practice. Even if it means missing out on a half-win shift or a better price on the current number. However, there is one notable result of a handful of ‘books setting a value for each team and giving bettors weeks to weigh-in BEFORE the Draft.
Yes, folks. We have power ratings.
2025 NFL market-based power ratings (as of late-March)
Column 4 is the team’s rating (out of 100) at the end of last season.
Guys, it was GRIM for the Giants and Saints.
Column 1 has the sportsbooks’ RSW total, while Column 2 has the odds to the over.
Column 4 is the important one for now, as it’s the team rating based on the win total (1) and the odds (2).
For example, the Patriots, Cardinals, and Vikings were lined at 8.5, which, in a 17-game season is right at .500, or 50/100 when turned into a rating.
I use the past tense with “were” because, now that we have had the NFL Draft, and the team’s have bought their needs and their luxuries, the RSW market should have shifted commensurate with all the hoopla of the event. Right?
2025 NFL market-based power ratings (April 29)
Pro Football Focus gave three teams an A+ grade on their draft - the Cardinals, Cowboys, and Panthers.
In the betting market, the Cardinals went from a RSW total of 8.5 (+100) to 8.5 (+100), the Cowboys from 7.5 (+105) to 7.5 (-110), and the Panthers from 6.5 (-125) DOWN to 6.5 (-115).
Like evaluating Sanders as a sure-fire first-round pick, draft grades are in the eye of the beholder. After all, speaking of the Browns, Mel Kiper - perhaps willing to die on the hill of Shedeur, while still unwilling to admit his evaluation might be wrong (despite the LONG list of times that’s been the case), gave the Browns an A+ on their draft. In a good sign for Mel, the Browns have moved up from WAY last, to just “last.”
Whether it was a small bump (Dallas up from an estimated 7.43 projected wins to 7.5), no move at all (Arizona), or the Panthers actually falling (from 6.56 to 6.52), having a “great” draft, didn’t have the impact the fans of each team might have hoped for in the eyes of those who are willing to put their money behind an opinion.
On the plus side, at least for Viking and 49er fans, despite Minnesota and San Francisco being given the worst draft grades by PFF, it’s not so bad. Minnesota went “up” from 8.5 (-120) to 8.5 (-130), and the 49ers did too, going from 10.5 (+105) to 10.5 (-110), or 0.07 wins.
The Titans and Falcons moved up a few spots in the power-rating hierarchy. As did the Bengals, but that was likely more about the securing of star receivers - Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
What does all this mean?
If you waited to weigh-in on a team’s regular-season win total, you didn’t miss much, as any move that happened was in pricing - by five or ten cents on the dollar, and you’ll likely be able to wait longer before tying up betting capital that could be used elsewhere over the next few months.
It also means that we have the first set of market power ratings - our core point for understanding the NFL betting market before we register our opinion about which teams are overrated or underrated before the season, and how best to bet that point of view come August.
For all the NFL Draft’s pomp, pageantry, inspiring athlete stories, and healthy (at times endless and non-sensical) debate, from a betting perspective, it’s not something to get THAT excited about, but if it acts as the starting point for next season’s betting, that definitely is.
Quick reminder:
As we venture forward at THE WINDOW, please acknowledge that you’ve found value in this content by liking (❤️) and/or restacking (🔄).
It will help others on Substack find THE WINDOW. “When I get it right, great! I want you to be able to see my work and understand how I got there, when I don’t.”