NFL Week 10: Best bets for Sunday
A favorite that’s flipped, three favorites to cover, a teaser, and a total
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
It almost never happens, but paying for your week’s bets is a nice feeling after crushing the Thursday Night Football game, but here we are. We’ve been in a good spot, starting each week 10-1 ATS with profitable props, but at the officially unofficial halfway point of the season, a Sunday ATS record of 36-35-1 in this space isn’t what we’ve come to expect the last few years, and don’t get me started on the dearth of covering underdogs the last month.
Primetime sides and totals, and player props have done the heavy lifting so far this NFL season, but there’s still nine more Sundays of regular season action, and looking at things “glass half full,” getting back to 55% ATS would mean we go 60% the rest of the way. So, if you’re late to the party here at THE WINDOW, you may have got on board at the right time, as evidenced by last night’s windfall.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the Week 10 RUMP:
Bengals +6
Saints +4
Colts +4
Broncos +8.5
Cowboys +7.5Patriots @ Bears (-6, 39)
Each week in the NFL, there’s a team that the talking heads focus on, with some version of “the sky is falling.”
“The head coach has lost the team, the quarterback’s regressed, the offensive line is in shambles, and the defense isn’t living up to the hype. In fact, if it weren’t for the fact that they’re playing in London, the coach might have already been fired.”
Oh, you thought I was talking about the Bears at first?
No, that was something commonly said about the Jaguars, after (ironically) they had just been blown out by Chicago. The next week, they faced the Patriots, and after spotting them 10 points, they won and covered as a touchdown favorite.
The Jets have been “that team” more than a few weeks this season, but their slow start - blowout loss to the 49ers, dicey win at Tennessee, 5-game losing streak - came amidst a convincing win over… the Patriots.
In each case, the Patriots came into the game with hope - a win over the Bengals and close loss to Seattle, then a decent showing from Drake Maye in his debut. Last week’s overtime loss in Tennessee followed a comeback win over the Jets, so the vibes are similarly high for a trip to Chicago.
Maybe the Bears are falling apart at the seams, or maybe they haven’t played a home game in over a month, and could use a visit from one of the worst teams in the league. One with a worse offensive line, and an even more clueless head coach.
Pick: Bears (-6, DraftKings)
49ers @ Buccaneers (+6.5, 51)
Few teams needed a week off more than the 49ers. Each week for the first half of the season, we collectively wondered, “Who’s going to play?”
Now, with no injury designation for Deebo Samuel or George Kittle, and optimistic quotes and clips of Christian McCaffrey practicing, San Francisco may be refreshed for a second-half push in the hotly-contested NFC West.
We’ve seen this movie before. Last year, the 49ers - with key players missing or banged up - lost three straight games headed into their Week 9 bye. In Week 10, they went down to Florida and smoked the Jaguars 34-3, who were coming out of their own bye week 6-2 and winners of five straight.
That Jags team was in far better shape than these Buccaneers, who just went to overtime with the Chiefs six days before having to take on the potentially rejuvenated Niners. With their own fleet of injuries, Tampa could really use a week off and might be looking forward to their own bye… next week.
Pick: 49ers (-6.5, -105 at FanDuel)
Jets @ Cardinals (+2, 46)
The betting market is IN on the Jets. A line that opened Cardinals -1.5 has flipped to New York as the favorite.
With no obvious injury developments, this is because the market’s either down on Arizona or higher on the Jets, or both.
Even if you’re not all that impressed with the Cardinals’ three straight wins - citing luck or struggling opponents, can you agree with a downgrade?
If not, that means bettors are buying in on the Jets after they beat the Texans last Thursday night. If you’re reading this, you likely watched that. If you left that New York performance saying “You know, these Jets are underrated,” I’d have some follow-up questions.
Getting the mini-bye to get healthier, and maybe better organized, is reason to think the Jets can play to their rating, but they were already considered better-than-average. As evidenced by being favored last week against the 6-2 Texans, despite being 2-6.
On the field, the Cardinals’ best offense is when the ground game opens things up for Kyler Murray in play-action and to create outside of the pocket. The Jets’ pass rush wasn’t disciplined enough to keep CJ Stroud from running for 59 yards, and their run defense has been hit pretty hard by not just Joe Mixon, but also Buffalo and Pittsburgh in three of the last four weeks.
Pick: Cardinals (+2, -112 at DraftKings)
Lions @ Texans (+3.5, 49)
We’re at a point where there really needs to be nothing else cited other than the Lions’ ATS record under Dan Campbell, or even just their 7-1 record against the number this year.
Indoors, outdoors, road, or home. The Lions are always a good bet. How can Detroit still be underrated? Well, ask yourself if it’s possible that they’re the best team in the NFL, or at least on the same tier as the Ravens, 49ers, and Chiefs. If your answer is “Yes,” we also know - from tracking how the betting market rates NFL teams - that the Lions haven’t been rated on that level. Put those two things together and our answer to the question we’ve posed ourselves is “that’s how.”
The Texans were hoping to get Nico Collins back, but not only might he get another two weeks off (with Houston off next week), but Will Anderson may be out as well.
As a general rule for the back-half of the regular season (and possibly the playoffs), we’ll only attempt a fade of the Lions with teams that:
Are fully healthy
Are being offered at a line that’s likely to improve (ie. Packers +3.5 that closed +2.5 last week)
Are a team that we’ve established as liking better than the market
The Texans don’t qualify as any of those things.
Pick: Lions (-3.5)
Best bet on Substack: Maybe he’ll end up the same as the others in his social media cohort (we always have to be ready for a villainous twist), but Substack founder does a nice job describing the power shifts in media and politics in “The Elon Times” with an admitted bias that his platform aspires to let people think for themselves. Let’s hope he and Substack don’t get to a point where he might have “more conflicts of interest than El Chapo.”
By-the-numbers bet (6-3):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Cowboys (+7.5, -115 at DraftKings) over Eagles
We referenced the logic in our Round-robin underdog moneyline parlay, but let’s break it down further mathematically (fun!).
The market had soured on the Cowboys before last week’s game in Atlanta, making them a below-average team (45/100) in our estimated market ratings.
The Eagles’ recent 4-game winning streak has pushed them back up to 60/100. Apply home-field advantage to the matchup, and the Eagles were set to by 2.5-point favorites this week.
Of course, the big change in the point spread is due to Dak Prescott being out and Cooper Rush being in, but this line suggests this week’s version of the Cowboys are now a 28/100, or on the same level of the Patriots. Maybe that’s true, but we’ll bet against it. Since the Cowboys, rated this way, would have been 9-point underdogs in Atlanta last week, and that’s too high as well.
Teaser of the week (3-6):
Steelers +8.5 / Chargers -1.5 (6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
The Steelers-Commanders line is teetering towards +3. Usually, we’d prefer a flat +3 at -110 over paying -270 for a teaser, or a market with a line drifting towards pick’em to really define value. However, even at +2.5, teased up to +8.5, I want to dare Washington to beat Pittsburgh by more than one score. Coming off a bye, the Steelers should be a good bet to at least play to their mean - a still relatively low rating in the market for a 6-2 team.
It seems like 7.5 points is a lot to lay with the Chargers, but it’s actually a little short based on how these teams were rated last week, followed by L.A. winning handily while the Titans needed overtime to beat the Patriots. If the value in the spread is on the Chargers, there’s value on a teaser leg as well, and asking L.A. to win by a field goal is a comfier request.
Total of the week (4-4-1):
Steelers/Commanders - Over 45 total points (-110 at DraftKings)
The Steelers’ defense is fun to watch, but the way the media talks about Pittsburgh, being 8th in DVOA and 10th in yards per play allowed, feels low. That’s before looking at who they’ve played and when they’ve played them.
Hobbled Kirk Cousins in Week 1, Bo Nix’s second pro game, injured Justin Herbert for a half, Aidan O’Connell, the Jets and Giants.
The two best offenses they’ve faced - the Cowboys and Colts - ran well and racked up an above-average number of yards. With two games against Lamar Jackson still to come, the Steelers haven’t faced a quarterback like Jayden Daniels yet this season.
The Commanders’ defense has been better than we thought, but they’re still 26th in DVOA. In games against good offenses - Buccaneers, Bengals, Ravens - Washington’s allowed at least 30 points. With Russell Wilson at the helm, while it’s only been two games, the Steelers’ actually qualify as a good offense, with over 400 yards in each game he’s played.
Given we only need around 23 points from each side, taking the over with two offensively capable teams is the play.
Lend me your ears, then I'll sing you a song
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