NFL Week 11: Best bets for Sunday
Riding with road teams in short and long spreads alike
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
There’s nothing lamer than the “you don’t know ‘ball” catchphrase that’s entered the lexicon of the dim. Mainly, because none of us know football in enough of a way that’s beneficial to predict what’s going to happen on the field - why one team will be able to make an off-tackle run over and over one week, and not at all the next week, etc.
The 0.001% who can even understand the minutiae of what’s happening out there, can’t wrap their head around the math involved when a betting market asks you to put a valuation on a team.
So, when saying something like “the Lions should be the rated like the best team in the NFL and with Nico Collins and Will Anderson not expected to play, a 3.5-point spread in favor of the Lions doesn’t quite consider Detroit that way,” we’re doing our best to combine some knowledge of both.
Where betting infuriates, is in scenarios that crop up like Sunday night:
The Lions close -4.5 after Collins and Anderson are ruled out, making us inherently right about -3.5 being still potentially valuable.
Football-watching society AND bettors come out of the game saying “the Lions should are the best team in the NFL!”
The Lions don’t cover the spread, and bets lose.
Some well-meaning jerk asks me what my record is.
We ask ourselves, “Where exactly were we wrong in the handicap?”
Well, the Texans had more energy early. That was probably predictable, with extra rest, off a loss.
Jared Goff’s five interceptions? Probably not.
But it’s a mark in the loss column, and the sportsbooks keep your money.
An example like that, that’s more detailed than “Jake Moody missed a bunch of field goals” (another viable, frustrating circumstance), is critical hindsight analysis in judging whether you’re on the right track, long-term.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the Week 11 RUMP:
Steelers (+3)
Colts (+4)
Patriots (+4.5)
Raiders (+7.5)
Seahawks (+6.5)Browns @ Saints (-1, 44.5)
The further away we get from the Deshaun Watson era, the more we can think about the Browns as a team that made the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco at the helm. A Cleveland bye week was exactly what was needed for a team that’s gotten the non-quarterback pieces back - Nick Chubb, a sneaky-talented receiving corps, a top offensive line that was ravaged by injury getting healthier.
As for the QB? Well, trying to predict which version of Jameis Winston we’ll get seems like a fools’ errand, but the defense he’s facing likely has a lot to do with whether it’s Dr. Jameis or Mr. (former) Heisman. Winston looked dangerous against the Ravens’ poor pass defense (7.4 opponents’ yards per play), and a week later, he can be a danger against the Chargers’ pass defense (5.9 YPP against).
The difference also might be tied to whether Winston’s team is trailing. The Browns never trailed by more than four points, or for more than five minutes, against the Ravens, but were down 20-3 in the second quarter against L.A.
Which scenario is more likely against the Saints?
New Orleans’ pass defense (7.1 YPP) is a lot closer to the Ravens than the Chargers.
Winston - an “All-Vibes Team” first-ballot hall-of-famer, gets to rally his team behind his return to New Orleans, where he likely feels he should have been given more of an opportunity in the post-Drew Brees era.
The Saints come off a “new coach bump” win against the division-rival Falcons, but big plays from Marquez Valdes-Scantling don’t grow on trees, nor do three-missed-field-goal games. With a secondary thinned by the trade of Marcus Lattimore, Paulson Adeebo on injured reserve, and rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry hampered by a hamstring issue, we’ll predict a big “revenge game” from Winston and the start of a relatively strong second half for the Browns.
Pick: Browns PK (-110 at Bet365)
Packers @ Bears (+5.5, 40)
You have to go out of your way to get fired in your first-year as an offensive coordinator, but, Shane Waldron, come on down!
Hiring the “architect” of the uninteresting Seahawks’ offense of the last few years, was a type of a decision, but things have to be unimaginably bad to lose the confidence of the players and the coach who hired you. The problem for Chicago, is the head coach is still around, and the pieces around the rookie quarterback don’t really fit in the context of the playbook they’ve been working with all season.
The Packers - rarely given much trouble by the Bears for the last few decades - went into their bye week coming off a critical blow to their NFC North division chances. With a chance to regroup and get Jordan Love healthier, they have to reframe the competition as that of the other NFC wild card contenders (Commanders, Vikings, Buccaneers, entire NFC West). There’s no such thing as an unnecessary game going forward.
Road favorites aren’t usually a good idea (until, like, four weeks ago), but this deep into the season, we can look at Matt LaFleur versus Matt Eberflus and know we’re backing the team with a more attentive, strategically-sound group.
Pick: Packers (-5.5, FanDuel)
Falcons @ Broncos (-2.5, 44)
Throughout the season, more than a few times, we’ve wondered aloud when the Broncos are going to get credit in the betting market for being better than many of the bad teams they’ve been rated adjacent to.
Well, there’s no need to worry about that now.
The Falcons’ rating got a little over its skis before the Saints game last week, and that’s come down to earth, but Atlanta was a favorite in this game in lookahead lines available to bet last week. The Broncos should have won in Kansas City, and even though they didn’t (like the Lions not covering), they get credit for it anyway in the form of the next week’s point spread, as this line drifts up towards a field goal.
But it’s not going to go to -3, is it? Hmmm, wonder why?
It’s a classic buy-low/sell-high off of one week’s results, especially with two teams who rely on field goals, tightly-played games, and kicking those late in close games. So, while getting a full field goal would be great, either team could win by one or two points, and no one would think anything of it.
Pick: Falcons (+2.5, -109 at DraftKings)
Bengals @ Chargers (-1.5, 48)
The Chargers are a contender.
If that wasn’t the headliner from releasing my three tiers of the NFL this past week, maybe a statement (implied, or outright on this week’s Clutch Picks Podcast) that the 4-6 Bengals are currently a top-10 team in the league, is. Games against other good teams - the Ravens twice, and at Kansas City - were legitimate coin-flips that could have made them 7-3 even after another inexplicably poor start.
Those three losses are arguably more impressive performances than anything the Chargers have on their resume (even a close game with the Chiefs came with just 224 total yards).
That doesn’t mean the Chargers can’t win a game they’re favored in, but if Joe Burrow and company are reframing their season after losing last Thursday, one of the targets in their sights is L.A. - the holders of an AFC wild card spot.
Part of the handicap in liking the Bengals’ chances in Baltimore last week, was an improved run defense with a healthy interior, and they stopped Derrick Henry from getting going. The Chargers want to run the ball too, but might find that more challenging than some of the softer opponents they’ve faced.
Cincinnati nearly won in Baltimore without Tee Higgins and left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., and the Bengals are hopeful to get both back.
With a better record - had the breaks of the game teetered in their favor - Cincinnati would have a market rating up in the echelon of the Chiefs or Ravens, and would be the favorite in this matchup.
With the Chargers’ move up in weight-class for a team with minimal home-field advantage, getting even a point with the Bengals is a good deal.
Pick: Bengals (+1.5)
Best bet on Substack: Luckily, I never made a rule that I can’t feature the same Substack account more than once (even if I would have liked to avoid it), so, I’m not technically making an exception here. While it seems like the type of dumb, hot-button topic or reference I’d mock at the top of the podcast, the blinding-sun issue at AT&T Stadium is objectively funny, since, you know, Jerry Jones. So, we’ll point you back to
and his article The Old Man and the Sun, breaking down all the details about the Cowboys’ legitimately stupid multi-billion dollar miscue. I chuckled. I shook my head. It’s exactly what I’m looking for in a 5-minute read.By-the-numbers bet (6-4):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Jaguars (+14, -115 at Bet365) over Lions
The Jaguars have been disappointing. There’s no question about that.
Though they were never expected to be particularly good with Trevor Lawrence (61.3%, 11:6 TD-to-INT), the season still managed to be a disaster.
But when did we decide that Jacksonville is awful - the type of terrible that is reserved for the Panthers, early-season Patriots, or midseason Titans? Here’s the number of games the Jaguars have lost by more than five points: Two.
Was Trevor Lawrence playing so well that Mac Jones can’t replicate his production? Ok, maybe he can’t, but at this team rating and accompanying spread, he doesn’t have to.
Jones saw his first action against a good Vikings’ defense last week, and it was not pretty (143 total yards), but Minnesota’s confusing scheme was a bad matchup for the Jags’ offense. The Lions, while collectively awesome, have a more simplistic defense in the absence of Aidan Hutchinson. Despite generating next-to-no offense, the Jaguars still covered an inflated point spread last week.
As mentioned off the top, the Lions’ rating is at its peak even without a cover, while the Jags have been downgraded to among the bottom of the league despite an ATS win. A point spread that would make more sense if it were akin to the Lions -11.5 against the Titans a few weeks ago, is too high at a full two touchdowns. Especially after such a dramatic Detroit win last Sunday night.
Teaser of the week (4-6):
Chiefs +8.5 / Texans -1.5 (6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
You’re supposed to bet the Bills -2.5, but if you do, and you passed up the chance to bet on Patrick Mahomes as underdog, you get shunned from polite society. Instead of worrying about taking a side with no valuable option, we’ll hope to prey on what we’ve seen from these two in their recent instant classics:
2023-‘24 AFC Divisional Round: Chiefs by 3
2023 regular season: Bills by 3
2022 regular season: Bills by 4
2021-‘22 AFC Divisional Round: Chiefs by 6 (OT)
2021 regular season: Bills by 18
2020-‘21 AFC Conference Championship: Chiefs by 14
2020 regular season: Chiefs by 9
The Bills’ record against the Chiefs is better than you might remember, and would be almost perfect in the last five tries if it weren’t for 13 rough seconds and a failed drive that ended in a missed 44-yard field goal to end the Bills’ season last year.
Moving the Chiefs up to +8.5 still allows for betting Mahomes, while leaving a wide range of possibilities where Kansas City’s undefeated season gets snapped.
Meanwhile, the Texans’ point spread over the Cowboys is inflated, but it doesn’t mean they shouldn’t follow a long line of other quality teams in winning in Dallas, so taking Houston down under a field goal can be the second part of our play on the biggest game of many good ones on Sunday.
Total of the week (5-4-1):
Ravens/Steelers: Under 48.5 total points
We’ll circle back to one of our preferred underdog plays with the Ravens-Steelers matchup, reiterating the Steelers’ ability to handle Lamar Jackson better than most over the years. While Wilson’s capable of doing enough against the Baltimore pass defense to win with a couple big gains through the air, Pittsburgh’s not going to be slinging it all over the place on repeat, with each quarterback focused on ball security. Both teams should have their special teams buttoned up, more likely to get a hand on a field goal, and less likely to allow a return touchdown.
And they’ll say, “Hey, look at him. I’ll never live that way.” And that’s OK, they’re just afraid of change.