NFL Week 12: Best bets for Sunday
Lions’ rating heights, Eagles set to soar, and Quinn’s revenge?
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
If the football season feels like a Groundhog Day Week, you could do worse than the alarm clock going off, and Sonny and Cher’s “I got you, Babe” triggering our Thursday Night winner on repeat.
At 11-1, that hasn’t been the problem.
Lately, Sundays have been the betting equivalent of getting out of bed and living the same day over, suffering the various fates of Bill Murray’s character, but instead of running into Ned Ryerson, we experience Evan McPherson. Rather than scoring Andie McDowell, you’re getting scored on by Taysom Hill.
Last week’s saviour - our underdogs - are already off to a good start, but, as always, the goal is to support the pups with the rest of the card, not undermine them.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the Week 12 RUMP:
Browns (+3.5)✅
Patriots (+7.5)
Titans (+8)
Bears (+3.5)
Giants (+6)Cowboys @ Commanders (-10, 45)
The Cowboys could have just hired Dan Quinn, instead of letting him go to Washington while keep Mike McCarthy as a lame duck.
While that might not have been a thrilling option for “America’s Team,” they’d probably at least have a better defense, and whether it was considered or not, the Commanders’ head coach might have a burr in his saddle from not being the option Jerry Jones went with. He also knows what the Cowboys hope to do on offense, even before the limitations Dallas is now presented with, having lost Dak Prescott for the season, and an already poor offensive line with injuries to three of its starters.
The Commanders’ once enviable offense has stalled recently, but playing the Steelers and Eagles within five days wasn’t great for Jayden Daniels’ sore ribcage. Having a mini-bye week (compared to the short week, with travel, for the Cowboys) should provide the rest Daniels needs to get back to the level Washington fans had grown accustomed.
While the line might seem high, it’s not built off any kind of an artificial upgrade of the Commanders, and there hasn’t been any reason to think the Cowboys’ don’t deserve their lowly rating post-Prescott injury.
Whatever the maximum number of points is that Dallas can muster, the Commanders should be primed to potentially double it.
Pick: Commanders (-10, -110 at Bet365)
Lions @ Colts (+7.5, 50.5)
If there was going to be a NFL betting market report next week, here’s what you’d see at the top:
Not only are the Lions alone at the top of the NFL market power ratings, they’re up there by quite a bit over the Ravens, who have a gap between them and the Bills.
Maybe all that’s legit, but Detroit’s hit a level that only the 49ers got to last year. San Francisco hit that peak after blowing out the Cardinals and then went 1-5 against the spread the rest of the season. That included three ATS losses in the playoffs, where (of course) they won two of those games.
Basically, the Lions have set the bar high enough that they could win the rest of their games and not cover another game the rest of the way, at the same time. Which is why they’re not included in the Week 12 RUMP. Beating Detroit on the field is considerably harder than doing so on the spreadsheet.
How can Colts’ tickets cash this week? The bar being set above a touchdown is a good start, but Indianapolis might have actually executed the “give the young quarterback some time to watch” plan, by turning to Joe Flacco for a few games. Anthony Richardson came back last week and threw more effectively than he has in his brief career, while still showing a willingness to use his legs (2 TD on 10 rush attempts).
The Lions have had to add linebacker Alex Anzalone to their injured list, and that might pose a problem against a team that wants play offense in the middle of field via a dual-threat run game and passes to big targets over the middle.
Detroit’s offense did whatever it wanted against the Jaguars’ man-to-man defense, but this week, Colts’ defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will be zoning (Cover-3) Detroit to boredom, in an attempt at keeping the Lions’ weapons in front of them, and the game close at home.
Pick: Colts (+7.5, -115 at DraftKings)
Cardinals @ Seahawks (PK, 47.5)
The Seahawks, downgraded after losses in the absence of DK Metcalf, got their star receiver back, slowed the 49ers’ run game WITH Christian McCaffrey, and won in San Francisco, beating the Niners for the first time in Geno Smith’s tenure, and don’t appear to get any credit for it, as the market hasn’t moved them above merely an average team.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals come off their bye - a convenient break to augment their 4-game winning streak, but one that featured blowouts over reeling teams, the Bears and Jets. How good is Arizona? It’s hard to tell, but a line of pick’em for a game in Seattle suggests they’re better than the Seahawks - by a factor of the 12s home-field advantage. There’s nothing that explicitly says that, beyond a market buying into Kyler Murray in the rain on Sunday with his receivers getting covered by the corner duo of Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen, and Mike Macdonald’s ever-evolving front-seven.
Pick: Seahawks (PK, -108 at FanDuel)
Eagles @ Rams (+3, 49)
The Eagles might be sitting on a big game offensively, and if their mini-bye week allowed for a focus on Jalen Hurts getting connected to the routes his receivers are running, this might be it.
Hurts has been carried by Barkley in more than a few games, but the Rams just let Drake Maye spread the ball around to six receivers with four catches or more, as the rookie often found the best matchup to exploit. There’s no one in the Rams’ secondary that can handle AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, so if Hurts is getting the ball out in time, the Eagles may score in explosive fashion.
The Rams thrive on Matthew Stafford’s connection to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but Vic Fangio’s seen more than a few top receiving duos in his long career. The first-year Eagles’ DC has spent the whole season re-molding Philadephia’s defense. Last year, they closed the season allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt amidst the team’s crumble. This year, they lead the league with 5.5 YPP against.
We should see Stafford look more like he did in primetime two weeks ago, than he did in New England - taking advantage of some ill-advised blitzes - as Philadelphia short-circuits a Rams’ offense that does little else.
Pick: Eagles (-3, -104 at DraftKings)
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By-the-numbers bet (6-5):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Giants (+6) over the Buccaneers
Already reflected in the Week 12 RUMP, this follows our dual-policy when it comes to tracking the betting market. Anytime an estimated team rating gets up near 80/100, it means they’re over-bought. If a team falls to 20/100, they’re likely over-sold.
When a team replaces a bad quarterback, with another bad quarterback, and the market reacts heavily, like they have by downgrading the Giants, you have to bite the bullet and back a team like New York.
As noted in the final NFL market report of the season, the Buccaneers’ rating has stayed among the most consistent in the NFL this year, and they haven’t been favored by this many all year, let alone on the road.
Tampa’s other big favorite spot? -5.5 at home against the Broncos in Week 2, when they lost 26-7.
Teaser of the week (4-7):
None 😔
With the way the point spreads have shook out this week (and only 11 games left), with a lack of +2.5s (if you like the 3-point underdogs, just bet +3 at -110), and with many of the touchdown-favorites (Dolphins, Bucs, Texans) candidates to lose outright, there aren’t two worthwhile legs for a recommendable 2-team/6-point teaser.
The 49ers opened the week as a prime candidate to be teased to +8.5, but with Brock Purdy’s uncertainty, and the line at +3, that’s no longer the case. They could have been paired with the Broncos, but Denver is widely available at -270 (teaser leg odds) on the moneyline, so they could be parlayed with anything (-270 or less) for the same effect.
Total of the week (6-4-1):
Chiefs @ Panthers: Under 43 total points (-110 at Bet365)
If given the opportunity, the Chiefs will happily hand the ball off 40 times, and given what good run games have done against the Panthers, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be light work for Patrick Mahomes on Sunday, with the Black Friday game looming. Handoffs = running clock = few possessions.
It won’t take much to beat Carolina, who should have trouble scoring against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Coming off a struggle with Josh Allen, Bryce Young and company will look like a relative walk-in-the-park, and two-straight Panthers’ wins aren’t reason to think they’ll score in any meaningful way.
Sun is down, freezing cold. That’s how we already know winter’s here. My dawg would probably do it for a Louis belt. That’s just all he know. He don’t know nothing else.