NFL Week 17: Best bets for Sunday
Finding out where the betting market is applying a late-season tax, and why
At this point, the only way to know what day of the week it is?
Cross-reference whether the NFL is playing (Friday = no, all other days = yes), with how many games are being played.
If there’s just two, I’m being handed presents, and we’re winning copious bets, it’s Christmas.
If there’s one game, and no one is scoring, it’s a Thursday.
Three games? It’s Saturday, I guess???
A soft count for Sunday shows we’ve got nine games on the board. Which is just enough to provide some stability in our lives.
Given it’s starting on Saturday, we already gave out this week’s RUMP, however, we should provide some explanation for the selections.Panthers @ Buccaneers (-8, 48.5)
It’s not usually a good idea to double-dip with a fade (Buccaneers), or expect a second straight upset from one of the worst teams in the league (Panthers). However, given the Panthers were already an overtime fumble in field goal range from Chuba Hubbard away from beating the Bucs a few weeks ago, and there’s a +320 moneyline price tag available, we’d feel foolish if we didn’t take the Panthers here and they managed to topple Tampa.
Carolina had a hiccup as a favorite against the Cowboys, but that loss might have had more to do with Dallas being underrated (the Bucs certainly hope so) than the Panthers not earning the upgrade they were given before that game.
In the first meeting, the Buccaneers ran for 236 yards on the Panthers, but Carolina was able to withstand that and keep the game close. The run defense hasn’t gotten any better, but the Panthers have been able to compete anyway, beating the Cardinals last week, who were just as desperate for a win as Tampa is this week.
Pick: Panthers (+8, Bet365)
Dolphins @ Browns (+6.5, 39.5)
Two weeks ago, the Chiefs were -4.5 at Cleveland.
You can make the argument that the betting market has soured on the Browns since then, because they’ve lost two games by multiple scores, and turned to Dorian Thompson-Robinson to play out the string, and that downgrade might make up for the two-point difference, but even still, there’s the matter of the Chiefs being way better than Miami.
After barely beating the Jets and losing convincingly at Houston, the Dolphins’ edged the 49ers last week and are all of a sudden back to being considered an above-average team?
More likely, they’re being overvalued because they’re still lingering in contention for a playoff spot. However, what if the Chargers and Broncos win on Saturday and Miami’s eliminated from contention? We should see a line move back towards the lookahead line that was in-between -3 and -3.5.
Meanwhile, the Browns’ defense did hold the Bengals to 326 yards, a week after allowing just 311 to the Chiefs. It’s apparently a tall task, but if the Browns can go from seven turnovers to five turnovers, to maybe two or three (???), they can hang around with the Dolphins.
Pick: Browns (+7, available at -115 at Pinnacle, or +6.5 at -105)
Falcons @ Commanders (-4, 47.5)
The Commanders did it again last week - pulling off a miracle win at home, and now they’re a win or a Bucs’/Falcons’ loss away from the playoffs. Meanwhile, Atlanta needs to win-out for its playoff hopes, so neither team is getting extra credit for perceived desperation.
If we’re giving Washington full-credit for their ability to play a full 60 minutes, garnering a 10-5 record, then an estimated market rating of 53/100 is fine. It’s been in that area all season long.
The X-factor in this game is the answer to the question: “What are the Falcons with Michael Penix at the helm?”
Before the season, with Kirk Cousins the assumed starter, the Falcons were rated as an above-average team (you know, exactly where the Commanders are right now). After a blowout loss in Denver and the bye week that followed, everything about Atlanta improved - run game, pass protection, defensive pressure - except the quarterback play.
Cousins was removed and Penix saw his first action against the Giants, and while Atlanta covered, we weren’t going to learn all that much about this version of the Falcons. It’s possible they are just the same, at which point the line for this game should be Commanders -5/-5.5? However, if they’re back to that team that was in the lead in the NFC South for much of the season, then a fair line would be under the key number -3.
Since, in this hypothetical, we’re giving up less from -5.5 to -4 than we’re getting going from -4 to -2.5, because of the key number of -3, we’ll bet that the Falcons are the valuable side, daring the Commanders to win by margin. Something Washington hasn’t done when favored at home against anyone other than the Panthers and Browns.
Speaking of Carolina, this game was flexed to Sunday Night Football because of the likelihood that both teams will be going all out, but what if the Panthers shock Tampa Bay and the postseason’s already a certainty for Washington? The desperation tax would hit the Falcons and we’d likely see this line drop anyway, making +4 and the current moneyline not just theoretically valuable, but in actuality.
Pick: Falcons (+4, Bet365)
Jets @ Bills (-10, 46.5)
Sure enough, the Jets’ trip to the warm climate of Florida for games with the Dolphins and Jaguars ended up being the predictably high point for 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers and his old-in-receiver-years compadre Davante Adams.
Back in the chill of the northeast, Rodgers reverted back to immobile against the Rams, and Adams longest reception was 13 yards, despite 13 targets, and now Adams has a hip injury, and doesn’t seem all that interested in a trip to Buffalo.
You may recall we bet on the Jets in Miami and Jacksonville, because the betting market had sold New York down to a team rating far lower than they had all season. With those point spreads, the Jets probably should have pushed both (had they correctly ran the clock out and kicked a last-second field goal against the Jags), which infers that a 40/100 rating was probably correct (or even complimentary, considering the optimal conditions).
Buffalo’s going to get docked some market-rating points because they played a close game with the Patriots last week, but we know teams play to the low-end of their range after playing the Lions. Now? They get a wounded division rival in the Bills’ regular season home finale.
If the Bills can play to their average (around 72/100) and the Jets play to that 40/100 we referenced above, a fair point spread for this game is Bills -11.5. Maybe the name value of Rodgers still earns the Jets some respect, but with another offensive lineman out and Adams’ hip acting up, there’s no reason to believe Rodgers won’t be willfully turtling, while Josh Allen has his way with the defense.
Pick: Bills (-9.5, -113 at Pinnacle, -115 at ESPNBet)
Raiders @ Saints (+1.5, 37.5)
As the Saints were getting shutout on Monday, some sportsbooks still had them favored to win a football game six days later. After losing 34-0 and not getting into the red zone, there was no way that could be the case this week.
Unless you remember that playing the Raiders (high off of a losing-streak-snapping victory) at home is a drastically different ask than to be even competitive on the road, against a Super Bowl contender, on Monday Night Football.
Spencer Rattler looked clueless, but he wasn’t getting any help from his assortment of replacement-level targets, but like in the NBA with their “role” players, those support pieces tend to play better at home.
Looking at it numerically, while the Saints’ rating has hit our artificial floor of 20/100, the Raiders’ rating would have them go from pick’em last week against the Jaguars to -3.5. While they won by five, Las Vegas mustered just 4.7 yards per play at home, and were trailing heading into the fourth quarter. They’re likely more than a little overrated here, while it’s hard to rate the Saints worse.
Pick: Saints (+1.5, -112 at DraftKings)
Packers @ Vikings (-1, 48.5)
The unequivocal main-screen game between the two late-afternoon starts, is being lined as a coin-flip. With the Vikings playing at home, a virtual pick’em confirms what we’ve known all season long - the betting market thinks the 11-4 Packers are better than the 13-2 Vikings.
If you are one to chant “Skol!”, while clapping high above your head, you’re probably insulted by that. We’ll hope that the Vikings are too.
If the Packers win out, they might get the 5-seed. If they lose out, they get the 6-seed. This isn’t exactly mission critical for Green Bay.
Meanwhile, the Vikings can give themselves a chance at a first round bye, or they can be in danger of falling to the 6-seed. That’s kind of a big deal.
We’ve seen a handful of other teams (Seahawks, Rams, Dolphins) get a tax put on them in the betting market for feeling like they need to win the game, but the Vikings don’t have that same extra hurdle. They are, at the very least, fairly priced, before the argument starts about whether they actually ARE better than Green Bay.
Regardless of what may happen in Detroit next week, if the Vikings are a true contender in the NFC, winning a home game against a team of the Packers’ (and their own) calibre would be a good start.
Pick: Vikings ML (-112 at FanDuel)
Best bet on Substack: This offseason, I’d like to build a resource list of the best NFL team-centric Substacks. So, I need your help. Whichever team you follow, if you have a Substack that helps you follow that team specifically, drop me a message sharing that ‘Stack. Ideally, it’s not just a fan page, but one that digs into the on-field analytics and off-field decision-making.
By-the-numbers bet (6-10):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Eagles (-7) over the Cowboys
DeVonta Smith could have caught the ball or the Eagles’ defense could have made one play in the second-half (particularly the last drive), and Philadelphia would have won and covered last week. Had either happened, whatever blame Kenny Pickett’s getting for the loss wouldn’t exist and the change in point spread that’s occurred with his (probable) start against the Cowboys would be minimal.
With Hurts in, and including a Cowboys’ upgrade in the betting market for beating the Buccaneers last week, I have a projected point spread of -12 (the lookahead line was -11.5).
Hurts looks like he’s out, but so is CeeDee Lamb, yet we’ve seen a 5-point alteration in the point spread. For the Eagles, this indicates they’re being looked at like a team who’s gone from Super Bowl contender - rated in the low-to-mid-70s - to merely league-average in our estimated market rating system once Dallas gets downgraded for being without their lone weapon on offense.
Total of the week (8-7-1):
Titans @ Jaguars: Over 39.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
I found a way to bet this game!
The 10-6 final score in the first matchup was mostly fair, given neither team cracked 300 yards.
Mason Rudolph has since taken over for Will Levis, and the Titans’ offense scored 13 points in the fourth quarter against the Bengals and then 30 points on the road last week. Both came while trailing trailed, but that’s part of the overall point.
We don’t care when the points come
The Tennessee defense isn’t any good, and has little interest in tackling (based on two Jonathan Taylor long touchdowns and one where Josh Downs was allowed to scoot down the sidelines)
Two fumbles and a fourth-down failure derailed the Jaguars’ offense last week, but there’s still just enough talent available to Mac Jones for Jacksonville to contribute 20 points. The same number I’d expect from the Titans’ offense under Rudolph.
Teaser of the week (6-10):
We burned our teaser of the week on Christmas Day, hoping the Steelers could hang around long enough with the Chiefs to stay within +8.5. With no other viable teaser legs to pair with Colts -1.5 (and not being in love with that leg anyway), we’ll use the space as a reminder that teasers are best saved for the middle of the season (6-3 from Week 4-13) when we have a better understanding of what to expect from teams, and the games are more likely to finish close to the original point spread.
You said that irony was the shackles of youth. I couldn’t understand.