NFL Week 18 betting preview

For the NFL’s weirdest week, we ask “What’s up with that?”

Jan 03, 2025

In years’ past, in a metaphorical land far away, I used to write two separate NFL Week 18 betting previews - “The Real Games” and “The Fake Games.” It was the furthest I was allowed to push the absurdity of the regular season’s final week - loaded with games where your initial reaction to the point spread should mimic this classic Kenan Thompson SNL sketch:

Some lines are more inherently wacky than others. Some games have more potential for value based on where the lines are headed. SOME even have a value predicated on a game that happens earlier in the week.

Since Week 18 is built different, we’ll treat our weekly “Best Bets” article like Thompson does with the “What’s up with that?” sketch, by throwing a bunch of stuff on the wall and seeing what sticks.

Browns @ Ravens (-20, 41.5)

Like Bill Hader’s “Lindsey Buckingham,” the NFL had to put Browns-Ravens somewhere. With Bengals-Steelers falling in behind Vikings-Lions as the “second-best” game of the week, it had to be played in primetime on Saturday, but the only way to guarantee the Ravens try (on a week where good teams trying are few and far between), is to also expose Cleveland’s joke of a football situation on Saturday.

The Browns have 7, 6, and 3 points in their last three games, and there’s no reason to believe they’ll score even 10 points, having just watched Baltimore shutout the Texans’ offense in Houston, and the betting market has reflected that with a downgrade of the Browns to, and through, our artificial floor of an estimated market rating of 20/100. However, we’re not in the business of laying this kind of number in the NFL. Instead, we’ll play a rare Week 18 prop.

Zay Flowers: Over 57.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

Last week, the Texans had a talent-hole up the middle of their defense, and the Ravens’ noticed, running the ball with success from the moment the game started until it was over. This week? Denzel Ward’s absence makes an already-shaky Browns’ pass defense vulnerable to both big plays and high-volume usage.

In their first meeting, Zay Flowers had a season-high 12 targets, catching seven balls for 115 yards against the Browns, and he should be able to do more than usual with his 6+ targets, before the Ravens simply run this game out late.

Bengals @ Steelers (+2, 48)

Last week’s excitement over a wild win in Cincinnati, the Bengals’ “need” to keep winning, and the Steelers’ three-straight losses (to the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs) have created a market where the Bengals are the favorite.

Cincinnati needed to win just as badly back in Week 13 against the Steelers AT HOME, only to allow 500+ yards, while Joe Burrow threw for just 6.7 yards per pass in a 44-38 loss.

The Bengals were 3-point favorites in that game, so a mere 1-point adjustment, despite a change in location that should warrant at least three points of movement toward Pittsburgh, is based entirely on the Steelers’ losing streak to really good teams.

Any concern that Pittsburgh will take their foot off the gas when the Ravens win the AFC North ignores everything we know about Mike Tomlin, how valuable the 5-seed is in the AFC this year (with a trip to Houston in the first round WAY more attractive than one to Buffalo or Baltimore), and what getting a win to knock out a division rival means before the playoffs.

But wait, there’s more… 

IF the Steelers’ beat the Bengals, what’s left for the Chargers to play for? 

(The Broncos have to still stiff-arm the Dolphins away from catching them for AFC #7)

The Chargers opened -5.5 at Las Vegas and the line has trickled down in conjunction with the Steelers going from +3 to +2/+1.5 over the course of the week. 

In a meaningless game, with the playoffs up next, why would L.A. start Justin Herbert?

The drop-off to Taylor Heinicke is considerable, and the Raiders would likely be favored if he got the start.

Pick: Steelers ML / Raiders ML (+470) or Steelers (+2) if you can’t parlay at your sportsbook

Jaguars @ Colts (-4.5, 44)

The Colts should be ashamed of themselves for losing to the Giants, and getting eliminated from playoff contention because of it. However, that doesn’t mean they’re only a few points better than a Jaguars’ team who:

Lost to the Raiders two weeks ago
Was lined as a near pick’em at home to the Titans last week (and twice should have given up a game-tying touchdown late to the now-benched Mason Rudolph)

This game would have otherwise been lined upwards of Colts -7.5.

Embarrassment is a prime motivator, especially before a home finale, and it’s not like the Colts’ offense was to blame for last week’s catastrophe. Indianapolis ran 73 plays, scoring 33 points on 446 total yards. Those are eerily similar numbers to the 69 plays, 34 points, and 447 total yards that the Colts racked up earlier this season in Jacksonville, also a loss with Joe Flacco at the helm.

We’ll hope that Flacco (three turnovers) can have better ball security against the bad Jaguars’ defense, and hope that the value we recognize in the favorite pays off.

Pick: Colts (-5, Bet365)

Saints @ Buccaneers (-13.5, 44)

Since almost stunning the Commanders with a late comeback after a super-slow offensive start in Week 15, the Saints got shutout in Green Bay, averaging 3.7 yards per play, and, a week later, went 1-for-10 on third down, scoring just 10 points against the Raiders at home.

What’s the realistic number of points New Orleans will score in Tampa Bay?

Given that we’ve seen this situation before, when the Saints had to start Spencer Rattler in Week 6 and the defense allowed 277 yards rushing and 44 of 51 total points scored by the Buccaneers, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to keep up with a still-motivated Tampa team that needs to win to secure another NFC South title.

While the Bucs’ moneyline (-900, or 90% implied win probability) is inflated, the point spread is pretty fair given the Saints haven’t come close to covering in their last two games.

Pick: Buccaneers (-13.5, -105 at FanDuel)

Dolphins @ Jets (+1, 39)

We’re going to miss football Sundays, but we’re not going to miss this season.

Favorites in the NFL somehow topped themselves last week, going 15-1 straight up (naturally, the last-place Giants were the lone underdog to win outright) and 13-3 against the spread. This year’s weirdness has gotten to the point where both early (-6.5) and late (-3) Dolphins’ bettors got away with backing Tyler Huntley, as a favorite, on the road. Oooooh weeee, what’s up with THAT?

The Browns (who beat the Ravens earlier this season) were so bad last week, that they’re making a run at being a full 3-TD underdog in Baltimore. So, if Cleveland is considered that bad, how much credit should the Dolphins be getting ahead of this game?

Of course, the Jets found themselves down 33-0 in Buffalo, so making them a favorite is only inviting Dolphins’ money, particularly on the premise that Miami needs to win this game.

As bad as Aaron Rodgers was last week, his career would hit rock-bottom if he was considered a worse quarterback than Huntley. While the Jets aren’t any good, we’re back to a scenario where the market is reflecting that, with a new low for their estimated market rating.

In a season where fading the Jets was almost always a great idea, it would be strangely fitting that they would cover in the season finale against the Dolphins, who the Jets were in position to beat in Miami a few weeks ago, even with Tua Tagovailoa.

Pick: Jets (+1, Bet365)

The Live ‘Dogs

Panthers @ Falcons (-8, 48)

Hypothetically, if you knew that an NFL head coach didn’t know that taking a timeout was even an option, but his team was rated as if he was a fully functional, there’d be some value in fading that coach/team, right?

Yes, that’s some remaining bitterness about Raheem Morris’s complete mismanagement of the clock in the Falcons’ biggest game of the season last Sunday night, but if he can let something so obvious fall through the cracks, what else might Atlanta’s head coach be capable of? Especially a week after the Falcons were knocked out of playoff contention in overtime.

The Panthers couldn’t stop the super-focused Buccaneers (off their loss in Dallas) last week, but it wasn’t for lack of effort. Carolina continues to be trying despite seemingly getting knocked out of playoff contention in September, and there’s no telling what the Falcons’ mindset is heading into their first “meaningless” game this season.

Pick: Panthers (+8, DraftKings)

Chiefs @ Broncos (-10.5, 40)

Whether it’s piecing it together from recent estimated market ratings, or just looking at the Broncos’ visit to Kansas City in Week 10 when the Chiefs closed -7.5, Denver would have been over a field goal home underdog if all things were equal in this matchup.

When the Broncos opened -9, that was the sign that Patrick Mahomes (and Travis Kelce, plus any other Chiefs’ veteran) would be sitting this one out. We didn’t need Andy Reid’s confirmation, so when he gave it, and the line moved up some more, it seemed odd, and we asked again:

Many will tell you that the Chiefs shouldn’t want to win this game, in an effort to keep the Bengals out of the playoffs, but why wouldn’t they want to deploy Cincinnati into Buffalo to try to wipe out one of their biggest challengers? Or, if the Bengals lose Saturday, why wouldn’t the Chiefs want to knock out a division rival in favor of the very-flawed Dolphins?

None of this is worth it enough for the Chiefs to risk Mahomes getting injured, but to not try to win with the players they have is non-sensical.

Carson Wentz - with a full season in Andy Reid’s system - has more than enough motivation and tools to play well, hoping to show the rest of the NFL what he’s still capable of. Plus, from a numbers-only standpoint, it’s not like Mahomes’ averages of 245 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game can’t be replicated by Wentz in one game.

As always, late in the season, just because you need to win a game, doesn’t mean you get to, and nowhere does it say the Broncos need to win by 11 to clinch a playoff spot.

Pick: Chiefs (+10.5, Bet365)

Seahawks @ Rams (+6.5, 38.5)

With the Falcons’ loss, the Rams clinched the West, the Seahawks were eliminated, and this - a potentially great do-or-die “real game” - became a “fake game.”

The interesting version of this game would have had the Rams lined as over a field-goal favorite, but with Matthew Stafford being rested, as well as key teammates - Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua - the line has swung 10 points.

Technically, the Rams could improve their seeding, so they’ll try to win, but any bet here is more about the valuation of L.A. Former Super Bowl-starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo has had a full season with quarterback whisperer Sean McVay, and the Rams’ will be giving young tailbacks Blake Corum and Cody Schrader a chance to carry Williams’ workload.

Let’s expect the Rams’ replacements - including receivers who got experience when Kupp and Nacua were out - to be able to run McVay’s plays. Meanwhile, who knows what to expect from the Seahawks, who, even when they were playing for something, scored all of six points against the Bears last week.

Pick: Rams (+6.5, FanDuel)

Week 18 RUMP (Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay):

Panthers (+325)
Chiefs (+425)
Rams (+230)
Raiders (+175)
49ers (+175)

At +175, the Raiders are worth locking in on the moneyline now, as even if the Steelers lose, the odds won’t change drastically. Meanwhile, with Joshua Dobbs looking like he’s getting the start for the 49ers, there’s a wide range of outcomes for their game at Arizona and a line move from PK to +4.5 has created a valuable moneyline.

Parlay: Commanders: Half-time/Full-time & Bears +10.5 (+211 at DraftKings)

Neither the Commanders (True projected spread of -4) or the Bears (True projected spread of +12.5) are valuable bets on their own.

However, if the Commanders take control of their game with the Cowboys in the first half, and look like they’re going to win and secure the 6-seed (avoiding a first round matchup with the Eagles), the probability that the Bears sneak in a backdoor cover increases as well, since there’s a non-zero chance the Packers sit Jordan Love and any number of key players in the second half.

Another way to play it: Commanders 1H ML -218 / Bears +14.5 (+120 at DraftKings)

“What’s uppp with THAAAAAT”

The following point spreads are virtually made up, based on what we (don’t) know about who might be available for teams who’ve already secured their playoff spot. For each, we’ll list the original projected spread along with the current betting line.

Bills @ Patriots (Projected: BUF -10, Current: BUF -2.5)
Giants @ Eagles (Projected: PHI -14, Current: PHI -3)
Texans @ Titans (Projected: HOU -6, Current: TEN -1)

The Season Finale

Vikings @ Lions (-3, 56.5)

I was high on the Vikings this season. We’re optimistic about Kevin O’Connell (currently -1600) for Coach of the Year. We’ll come just short with our bets on Justin Jefferson to lead receivers in statistical categories. We’ve cashed easily on bets for Minnesota to go over their win total (6.5) and to make the playoffs (+300). However, I also bet on the Vikings to be a Wild Card team (+550) and the Lions to win the NFC North (+130), under-shooting what Minnesota might be capable of this season. Those bets will be decided with the result of this game, as they’re effectively a Lions’ moneyline bet at much better odds than -155.

As a matter of principle, I don’t hedge.

Unless it’s a handicapping contest scenario - where you can add to your minimum profit, or some rare scenario where the payout is life- or year-changing.

However, like with this game, where I want to be on the opposite side of the bet I’m currently staked to, I will take the opportunity to not just create a middle but come over the top, putting me on the Vikings +3.

Monday night’s Lions’ win in San Francisco was curious. Dan Campbell’s tried to convince us that his decision-making isn’t just aggressive, it’s optimal. However, with more decisions come more information, and it’s becoming clear that Campbell’s reckless in an effort to prove some sort of point about the culture of toughness he’s built in Detroit.

The Lions could have tried their hardest to beat the 49ers without putting Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jahmyr Gibbs at risk of injury in a game that didn’t improve there playoff positioning. Especially knowing what the wear of the NFL season has done to Detroit’s defense, which was getting walked up and down the Levi’s Stadium field before, amidst, and after Brock Purdy’s pair of bad-read/bad-throw interceptions and Jake Moody missed kicks.

Don’t get me wrong, Sam Darnold’s capable of turnovers, and Vikings’ kicker Will Reichard missed two field goals at home last week, so a similar script could play out in a game with a similar point spread.

The difference is that the Vikings’ defense is the first unit capable of slowing down the Lions, even if, for one quarter in Week 6, Detroit scored three touchdowns on three drives.

Whatever Brian Flores was doing during the second quarter of a 2-point loss to the Lions, if the Vikings can limit explosiveness, they should be able to keep up with Detroit better than San Francisco could, and similarly to Green Bay on a Thursday night a few weeks back.

After all, regardless of how we felt about the NFC North’s trio of contenders before the season or their current records, all we’ve seen is that you can throw a blanket across all three, given four of their five matchups decided by a field goal or less.