NFL Week 7 betting: The “Player Prop Express”
10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Juwan Johnson going over 2.5 receptions last week was a pleasant surprise to me.
Not when it happened with 1:22 left on a 2-yard catch in a 51-27 game, but three days later when I actually found out.
I noticed Johnson had three catches only when perusing the Bucs-Saints’ boxscore, while preparing for a robust Broncos-Saints matchup on Thursday Night Football.
Getting to regrade a loser into a winner is the dream, but we always take the cash credits into the accounts any way we can get them.
How did our “fantasy team” do last week?
Dude, 8-2 (+6 units)!
Everybody’s else’s fake team full of player props didn’t stand a chance!Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.
QB1: CJ Stroud - Longest pass completion, under 35.5 yards (-115, Bet365)
Stroud has just two “long” pass completions this season
Both to Nico Collins (on Injured Reserve)
Went over 7-of-17 games last season (with Collins)
Packers’ safety, ball-hawk, Xavier McKinney (5 interceptions) should dissuade the Texans from taking deep shots
Joe Mixon back last week helps running game
More even run/pass distribution
QB2: Andy Dalton - Over 22.5 pass completions (-115, DraftKings)
Dalton has gone way over 22.5 completions in three of four games started
Versus Falcons, Bengals, and Raiders - all rated 20th or worse in defensive DVOA
Commanders are 28th in defensive DVOA
Commanders are near-double-digit favorites, suggesting trailing game state for Panthers
RB1: Jahmyr Gibbs - Over 19.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)
20+ receiving yards in four of five games this season
Including credit for receiving yards on trick “hook ‘n’ ladder” plays
Vikings’ complex, blitz-heavy defense may encourage check-down throws from Jared Goff
Gibbs caught seven of seven targets vs. Buccaneers (only loss of the season)
Facing undefeated Vikings, first time they’re underdogs all season
Out of their Week 6 bye, biggest snap-count differential between Gibbs and David Montgomery
RB2: Zack Moss - Under 47.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Last Sunday was the first game where Moss played fewer snaps than Chase Brown
Moss lost a fumble
Moss more effective in short-yardage than in the passing game
Averaging just 3.6 yards per carry
Less than 3.0 in last three games
Nick Chubb’s return may mean longer, time-consuming drives for Cleveland and fewer plays for Bengals’ offense
WR1: Drake London - Under 74.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365)
London’s gone over this total just once all season
Despite 6+ catches in all but one game
Top receivers versus Seahawks and shutdown corner Devon Witherspoon:
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 45 yards
Brandon Aiyuk: 37 yards
Tyreek Hill: 40 yards
Courtland Sutton: 38 yards
WR2: Brandon Aiyuk - Over 57.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)
Prior to being shutdown by Witherspoon in Seattle when 49ers could run the ball and throw to George Kittle, Aiyuk had his best game of the season vs. Arizona (8 recs, 147 yds)
49ers will be able to test Chiefs’ outside corners
K.C.’s best corner, Trent McDuffie, excels in the slot
Chiefs are fourth in rushing yards per attempt allowed this season
More throwing likely for 49ers’ offense
WR3: DeMario Douglas - Over 4.5 receptions (+103, Pinnacle)
“I would run through a wall for Drake Maye.” - DeMario Douglas, this week
This sounds like the quote of a guy excited about a quarterback change
After three targets in Maye’s lone drive earlier this season, Douglas had nine in the rookie’s first start, catching six
Patriots’ poor defense should continue to force offensive urgency from New England
TE: Grant Calcaterra - Over 24.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)
Dallas Goedert left last week’s game early with hamstring injury
Ruled out for Sunday
Calcaterra caught four passes for 67 yards replacing Goedert
Played 92% of snaps after previous season-high of 57%
Caught eight of nine targets this season
FLEX: Tyreek Hill - Over 55.5 receiving yards (-112, Pinnacle)
Bye week should help get Tyler Huntley deeper into the playbook and in rhythm with Mike McDaniel offense
Colts’ defense are 25th in yards per pass attempt, 19th in overall defensive DVOA
Three of Colts’ six games have come against Malik Willis, Justin Fields, and Will Levis
Hill had six catches on 10 targets for 69 yards versus Patriots
Huntley’s second game
SUPER-FLEX: James Cook - Under 65.5 rushing yards (-115, Pinnacle)
No running back has ran for more than 62 yards against the Titans this season
Titans are fifth in yards per carry allowed
Cook coming off a toe injury
Might limit his snap count
Bills have capable backup RBs
BONUS:
RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:
Nick Chubb (+140)
AJ Brown (+165)
Tyreek Hill (+195)
Sam LaPorta (+210)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (+280)
1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.
*Odds derived from FanDuel