NFL Week 9 betting: The “Player Prop Express”
10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Week 8 was more eventful that we’d usually like to see for our fake pretend football team. We had:
The good - crafting a winning bet by sussing out Jalen McMillan’s involvement in the Bucs’ run game
The bad - taking the under on Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards on the premise Marcus Mariota won’t find him deep. He didn’t, but Jayden McDaniels did.
The ugly - Stefon Diggs (Over 5.5) sitting on five receptions on nine targets in the third quarter, only to tear his ACL.
At 43-37 for the season, we’re chugging along, having a great time cheering for a thrown together group of players that have no idea they’re on the same team.
How did our “fantasy team” do last week?
5-5 again.
It was a wild ride, but the twists and turns resulted in a small loss.Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.
QB1: Justin Herbert - Under 228.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
We’ve gone over on Herbert the last three weeks, but his passing yards line has been increased by 20+
Instead of playing the Broncos (needed to throw vs. good run defense), Cardinals, and Saints, the Chargers visit Cleveland’s good defense
Browns’ improved offense keeps Herbert off the field better than last three opponents
QB2: Tua Tagovailoa - Under 245.5 passing yards (-110 at Pinnacle)
Bills’ defense regularly vexes Tagovailoa and Dolphins’ pass offense
1-7, 200 yards per game, 7:10 TD:INT ratio, in his career
74.1 career QB rating vs. Bills, 96.4 career QB rating vs. NFL
Last five games vs. Buffalo:
17/25, 145 yards
17/27, 173 yards
25/35, 282 yards
17/30, 234 yards
13/18, 186 yards
Unless Tagovailoa throws over 30 times, he should stay under
RB1: James Conner - Under 88.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Bears’ defense allows second-fewest receiving yards per catch to opposing running backs
Bears’ run defense better than YPC numbers look, due to Chuba Hubbard big game in blowout Chicago win, and big game from Jonathan Taylor in Week 3
Cardinals have a tendency to go away from Conner when opposing team limits their possessions early
RB2: Rico Dowdle - Over 14.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Cowboys’ run game has been awful, Dallas should use Dowdle in pass game as an extension of the run game, and to take pressure off Dak Prescott
Dowdle returns from missing last week with an illness
Three weeks off for rested legs
Dowdle’s caught 2+ passes for 20+ receiving yards in five of last six games played
WR1: AJ Brown - Under 5.5 receptions (+104 at Pinnacle)
Brown’s caught exactly five passes in three of four games this season
The other game - vs. Cleveland - Brown caught the game-ending pass for a first down on the last play of the game
Betting market expects blowout, so passing less necessary late
Jaguars’ are 27th in opponents yards per pass completion
Brown should get his stats in chunk yardage
Eagles’ run game should close game out early
WR2: Jalen Coker - Over 35.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Is this a bet just so that we can point out this out?
Maybe
But it’s also the type of prop bet we look for:
Team trades veteran wide receiver
Young player comes into bigger role midseason
Betting market doesn’t catch up
Panthers (as always) should have to throw the ball to catch up
Young found Coker for 3 receptions and 69 yards with a touchdown, in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss at Denver
WR3: Rashod Bateman - Over 22.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
4+ targets in 7-of-8 games this season
6-2 to the over on his receiving yards
Averages 19.2 yards per catch
Zay Flowers should see matchup with Patrick Surtain
Yards total depressed due to trade for Diontae Johnson, but Bateman’s been too productive to sit
Nelson Agholor more likely to lose playing time
TE: AJ Barner - Over 2.5 receptions (+102 at FanDuel)
Noah Fant out
Fant had 25 targets in the last six games (4.17 per game)
Geno Smith threw six total targets to tight ends last week in DK Metcalf’s absence
Metcalf out again
Seahawks had fewest offensive plays of the season last week
Barner, rookie out of Michigan, has caught all 10 targets thrown his way
FLEX: Kayshon Boutte - Over 29.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
First four games for Boutte:
Benched, benched, 18 snaps, 15 snaps
Last four games for Boutte:
40, 55, 50, and 55 snaps
Patriots’ offensive coordinator, Alex Van Pelt:
“Kayshon’s a guy that continues to improve each week and now he’s becoming one of our most consistent guys.”
For a team needing explosive options on offense, the Patriots play-caller is acknowledging a young receiver that missed that took a season to get healthy and more mature.
33+ receiving yards in his last four games
SUPER-FLEX: Jahmyr Gibbs - Under 13.5 rush attempts (-120 at Bet365)
Gibbs has 14+ rush attempts in three games this season
Week 3 vs. Arizona: 16 of 39 rush attempts between he and David Montgomery
Week 4 vs. Seattle: 14 carries, as part of game plan to take advantage of cluster injuries to Seahawks’ defensive line
Week 7 vs. Minnesota: 15 carries, when David Montgomery left game with knee injury
Packers are T-6 in opponents’ yards per rush
Game plan unlikely to be built around running consistently at Green Bay
BONUS:
RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:
Brock Bowers (+230)
Kyle Pitts (+200)
Keon Coleman (+200)
Keenan Allen (+230)
Tucker Kraft (+280)
1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.
*Odds derived from FanDuel