NFL Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Chargers-Texans
Follow season-long feels or make value bet on the home ‘dog?
I assume Matt Schaub or TJ Yates will be on hand for the ceremonial coin toss, as the Saturday afternoon NFL Playoff time slot is reserved for the Texans - the oft semi-default champion of the AFC South. Justin Herbert and the Chargers have been here before, coughing up a Saturday playoff game at Jacksonville a few years back.
Unlike many matchups that have featured things like Brock Osweiler vs. Connor Cook, Andy Dalton vs. Anybody, or Ryan Lindley vs. Throwing the ball effectively, we get two young quarterbacks with bright futures facing off.
Or at least that’s how it feels, because, like Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson sitting on the stairs at the Lincoln Memorial in Wedding Crashers, you wouldn’t blame one of the quarterbacks if he said “We’re not THAT young.
Chargers @ Texans (+3, 42.5)
At 26 (27 in March), Justin Herbert’s the John Beckwith of the NFL. It’s time to grow up. Part of his slow progression (as it tends to be with all quarterbacks in their first 5+ seasons) is that Herbert hasn’t had the coaching you’d hope for someone with his talent.
In comes Jim Harbaugh (and Jesse Minter to transform the defense) and Herbert’s noticeably more vocal, he’s careful with the ball (four turnovers all season), he gleefully uses his athleticism to take off at the right time, and when his receivers are open, they’re wide-open, and Herbert rarely misses.
As for “the kid” in this equation, CJ Stroud (perhaps through no fault of his own) took a step back this season - more games played, fewer touchdowns, and more than double the interceptions - despite the addition of a top-tier running back. The Texans’ offensive line has fallen apart, while both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell were knocked out for the season. Giving offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik the benefit of the doubt would be to suggest his play-calling (seemingly infinite wide-receiver screens) are a result of Stroud not having enough time for much else.
However you want to parse the reasons behind it, that’s the situation the Texans reside in going into the playoffs, where we ask ourselves, “What was the most impressive game that Houston played this season?”
Stroud threw it all day on the Bills in Week 5, and the Texans showed up for their Sunday-nighter with the Lions with perhaps the most collective energy I saw from any team this season. Against Buffalo, they took a 17-3 halftime lead, allowed just nine completions from Josh Allen, and still needed a 59-yard field goal as time expired to win. In the Detroit game, they blew a 23-7 halftime lead and lost.
The Texans went 5-1 in the division (with a home loss against the historically-bad-against-the-spread Titans) and 5-6 against everyone else. Meanwhile, the Chargers went 6-3 on the road, with their losses coming in Pittsburgh without Herbert, and by two points at Arizona and Kansas City. They’ve had tougher atmospheres at home against visiting teams whose fan bases show up at SoFi Stadium.
Which brings us to the number, as the market has seemingly caught up to the above. Based on our estimated market ratings, the Chargers - who’ve lingered in the high-50s for the latter half of the season - shouldn’t be a full -3 at the Texans who haven’t been lower than their current, league-average (50/100) rating. A “59” playing at a “50” (with minimal home-field advantage) should result in a line of Road Team -1.2. So, the opening line of Chargers -3 presumes some combination of L.A. rated at their highest, with the Texans at their lowest.
This puts us in the difficult position of wanting to fade Houston come playoff time, but having to pay a tax to do it. That tax existed when the Ravens visited on Christmas and rolled the Texans, when Houston’s defense - missing a bunch of key players straight up the middle - couldn’t stop the run game. However, while Jalen Pitre won’t be back, the Texans are hoping to get defensive tackle Folorunso Fatukasi back, might have Denico Autry in the D-line rotation again, and Azeez Al-Shaair has returned from suspension.
Given the players that could bolster Houston’s defense and a market that suggests +3 as good value, we might be able to expect the line to come off of the key number, opening up the possibility to take the Chargers -2.5.
Pick: Chargers (-2.5, -120 at FanDuel)
Quentin Johnston: Reception ladder - 5+ (+158), 6+ (+300), 7+ (+550)
Confidence is a hell of a thing. So is coaching.
If, for some reason, you were watching the Chargers’ finale with the Raiders closely, you might reach the hypothesis that Harbaugh and company knows their best chance to win a few games in the playoffs is to get a second option going (after Ladd McConkey) amongst L.A’s pass-catchers for Herbert. Career-highs of 13 receptions for 189 yards later, many of them contested, and Herbert’s belief in the former first-rounder might be at its peak. With Derek Stingley probably travelling around to cause problems for McConkey, and Johnston often in motion to catch outlets, look for Herbert to throw a couple cheap ones short, possibly setting up a deeper shot, making Johnston a challenge to cover.
Justin Herbert: Over 20.5 passing completions (-105 at DraftKings)
The best thing the Texans bring to the table is a defensive pass rush featuring Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter (combining for 23 sacks this season). Part of the Chargers’ offensive success this season stems from having added Joe Alt (first-round pick) and a healthy Rashawn Slater, but that doesn’t mean Herbert should be spending all day in the pocket at NRG Stadium. Whether it’s to Johnston in short range, or L.A.’s numerous tight ends and support receivers, Herbert should be able to get the ball safely out of his hands and into others, as he has in going over this number in his last five games of the regular season.
CJ Stroud: Under 236.5 passing yards (-110 at Bet365)
At 4.7 yards per carry allowed, the Chargers’ defense (while giving up the fewest points this season) wasn’t very good against the run. With porous pass protection (and their own strong run defense - with some or all of the aforementioned players returning), Stroud should be looking to hand the ball to Joe Mixon - which is why his rush attempts total is 18.5 - and keep this game competitive.
Between the expectation of modest success on the ground for Houston’s offense, and the Chargers’ penchant for bleeding the clock (they averaged the most seconds per play at 30.8), there might not be enough plays for Stroud to rack up passing yards with just Nico Collins as a threatening target. Plus, L.A.’s done a better job solidifying the long pass vulnerability that plagued them mid-season.
Quentin Johnston: Anytime touchdown (+230, FanDuel)
If you caught my story about needing a Johnston touchdown to complete a parlay for $4K on THE WINDOW Podcast, you might think this is a double-down, based on the karmic destiny that Johnston would catch a touchdown in the next game, and I can’t tell you you’re wrong. After all, we’ve been a week early on SO many of these all season.
Instead, as much as Johnston’s infuriated - particularly in big spots - this season, maybe we focus on his team-leading eight touchdown receptions (one TD behind JK Dobbins overall)?
Find me another receiver who has scored in half his games (seven of 15 - one he left early) who carry a +230 payout for a touchdown.
Johnston’s usage - overall target numbers - has affected perception, as he only had 91 looks in 15 games (six per game). His 13 targets didn’t come out of the blue, though, as he’s been targeted six or more times in the Chargers’ last five games (9.0 per game).
Justin Herbert: Anytime touchdown (+500, FanDuel)
With just two rushing touchdowns on the seasons, Herbert doesn’t score often, but he regularly comes awful close.
Even in Week 18, he broke away for a 41-yard rush, getting hauled down inside the five. In a game that was in hand, there was no reason to do anything other than distribute the ball near the goal line, but the Chargers’ repeatedly struggled to punch it in from in close. This comes a week after Herbert had so much time in the pocket that he didn’t need to even consider putting his body on the line. In the playoffs though, maybe they’ll dust off the plays that have Herbert keeping the ball, like they tried on a 2-point conversion in Week 16 against the Broncos.
Derius Davis: Anytime touchdown (+900, Bet365)
We found a bigger winner to start the Saturday holiday football spectacular when Derius Davis made a great touchdown catch at 12-to-1 odds. A week later, Herbert found Davis at the back of the end zone for another touchdown, except it got called back on a Chargers’ penalty (not unlike when a second Davis touchdown, via punt-return, was called back in New England). If those infractions are enough to keep Davis’s usage near the goal line under wraps, we’ll take the still-pretty-lucrative payout.
Robert Woods: Anytime touchdown (+850, FanDuel)
Cade Stover: Anytime touchdown (+1100, FanDuel)
The Texans will run plays for Collins and Mixon to score. The Chargers know that, as does the betting market. Betting short prices on players to score against a team that’s given up the fewest points in the league sounds somewhat illogical. Instead, let’s split a unit across two Texans that, at best, are “on the field” near the end zone.
Woods went from 19 targets in the first 14 games of the season to 11 targets in the last three. Likely not a coincidence given Dell got hurt three games ago. Meanwhile, the Texans’ rookie tight end scored his first NFL touchdown in Week 12, only to get hurt in Week 13. Cade Stover returned just in time to be on the field for the Texans’ sorry offensive performance on Christmas, and a meaningless Week 18 game where he played 60% of the snaps.
At long prices, we’ll hope Stroud gives a look somewhere other than Collins or Mixon, to a player who isn’t exactly on the first page of the Chargers’ defensive scouting report.