NHL Power Ratings: Post-trade deadline changes to team perception
Plus, this weekend’s moneyline guide
All NHL moneylines are built off of team power ratings (followed by key player injury adjustments and a roughly 4% consideration for home-ice advantage), with each team being perceived as a certain percentage above, equal to, or below, an average NHL team.
4 Nations break power ratings
During the break for the 4 Nations Face-off, we took a look at how the betting market was feeling about every team in the NHL. The two columns in white are the preseason season-long point totals that were bet into, and what a team’s rating looked like based on that number.
The middle number is the key for bettors, as the market rating at the quasi-All-Star break. That’s followed by THE WINDOW’s specific rating for each team, and what the projected point total would be for a team who’s rated that way. Which brings things full-circle, to compare with the preseason point total.
A month later (and a month to go before the Stanley Cup Playoffs), a significant date has come and gone on the NHL calendar - the trade deadline.
The trade deadline doesn’t just shift talent around the league - presumably improving those many teams believing they have a chance to win the Cup, but it’s also a stark reminder to the players of where their team sits relative to the playoffs, and what the goals are down the stretch.
Sometimes, doing nothing is, itself, a message sent by management.
Current betting market power ratings
Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, and players are with their new teams, here’s how perception has changed, if at all, for your favorite team:
Starting with the top, we have a team joining the highest point of the power ratings with stalwarts Carolina and Florida, and it’s the team we grabbed to win the Stanley Cup at +1000 via THE WINDOW Podcast - the Stars.
Since that bet was made, Dallas made a little splash and then the biggest splash before the trade deadline. First, they made a depth add with Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci from San Jose, then came the big move, acquiring (and signing) sniper Mikko Rantanen from the Hurricanes. It’s a move that Western rival, Colorado, likely didn’t see coming when they move Rantanen to Carolina.
As a result, the Stars get bumped up to 25% above league-average and are +600 to win the Cup, behind only the Panthers. That move has come despite star defenseman Miro Heiskanen being out after knee surgery (but expected back for the playoffs).
The Panthers added to their group by grabbing veterans Seth Jones and Brad Marchand, but their rating doesn’t change because 4 Nations casualty, Matthew Tkachuk, is out for the rest of the regular season.
About the Avalanche - they’re doing fine in the eyes of bettors. Moving on from Rantanen, replacing him with Martin Necas and getting their goaltending figured out (at least for now) with Mackenzie Blackwood playing so well, has firmed up a top rating.
That’s two teams in the East and two in the West at the top of the ratings, which means the market has soured a bit on the Oilers. Connor McDavid might have been the hero Canada needed, but Edmonton lost four straight out of the break (3-6 overall).
The Rangers tried adding JT Miller to buy some courage, but that hasn’t worked, as New York is 4-6 since the break. While the Bruins dealt their heart and soul, Marchand, and the market is out on that move. However, since perception and reality rarely meet in the short-term, the Bruins immediately shutout the Lightning, and then beat Marchand’s Panthers after the trade.
The Predator revolution didn’t initially appear to be coming, so the market started their downgrade, but all of a sudden Nashville’s won four straight on a discount.
Teams to move up? The Blue Jackets (four wins in a row out of the break), Canadiens (five straight) and the Utah Hockey Club (points in all but one of their last seven games).
None of those teams did anything of significance, so if we’re wondering if trade deadline moves have a big influence on the betting market, comparing our snapshots above goes to show that just a handful of games can create a more significant change in a team’s perception. Even if that might be an overreaction to recent play, at least it’s tangible, versus hypothetical.
Interestingly, a 10% change is almost like gaining/losing a key player for a game, because we know from “The 4% Club” that no single player affects their team’s win probably.
NHL Betting Guide (Mar. 14-17)
This is the moneyline betting guide for this weekend’s games in the NHL. The two columns on the far right are the target moneylines for a bet on either team should you be interested in backing one side or the other. For a better understanding on how moneyline betting works in the NHL, click here.
*Moneyline projections are not built reflecting day-to-day injuries to such meaningful players as Nikita Kucherov.
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