NHL Power Ratings

What does the betting market think of your team at the 4 Nations break?

It’s time to start talking about hockey.

While we’ve been deep into football, and are devoting the next 6+ weeks to March Madness, let’s touch base on the NHL.

Can one be brought up to speed on a league’s betting market in just a few minutes? You tell me.

The NHL is on nearly a 2-week break built into their schedule so they could reheat international rivalry as an amuse bouche to the 2026 Olympics. “Confrontation 4 Nations” (French accent needed) is a good idea for the dog days of February, but for some reason, the NHL didn’t schedule the first part of the season so that every franchise played the same number of games.

Looking at the standings requires a calculator to figure out who’s really better off in the Atlantic Division race between the Panthers’ 71 points in 57 games and the Maple Leafs’ 68 points in 55 games.

Luckily, the standings have never mattered when it comes to betting.

All that’s relevant is how the market perceives a team on game day.

As NHL franchises take a break after anywhere from 53 to 57 games, the following is a look at the 32 teams and where they stand, listed in order of their preseason expectation (season point total market).

As we broke down before the season, we can easily translate a team’s RSP into a rating where 1.00 equates to league-average, and then use that to create a moneyline for any match up.

• Any team with a value greater than 1.0 is considered that percentage better than an average team

• Any team with a value less than 1.0 is considered that percentage worse than an average team

NHL Team Ratings

RSP: Regular-season point total market available to bet before season
RATING: The translation of RSP into a rating relative to average (1.00)
MARKET: How the market rates each team going into the 4 Nations break
TW RAT.: THE WINDOW’s rating of each team based on their ‘24-‘25 metrics
PROJ. PT: Each team’s projected point total based on TW Rating 

Since hockey betting is done primarily via the moneyline (pick the team to win with odds) and the moneyline is based on an implied win probability (53%/47% = -113/+113), teams are rated relative to average.

With no games until February 22nd, we get to pause and reflect on where each team sits compared to before the season, and just for fun - let’s tier them!

Top Contenders (Two West, Two East)

The Oilers came into the season expected to be the league’s best team. Their RSP of 108.5 meant they were deemed +18.7% to average. Heading into this break, the market prices them at 25% above-average. Their 72 points in 55 games has them on a pace of 107.3 points. Our “TW Ratings” are supportive of the Oilers’ league-high rating, even if they’ve underperformed so far this season. Agreeing with Edmonton’s rating is a positive, since if we deemed them over-rated, we’d find ourselves looking to fade them come playoff time - a precarious position.

Joining the Oilers at the top are the defending Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers (who topped Edmonton in seven games last year), and the Carolina Hurricanes (an analytics darling for years now). Both team’s TW rating trail Edmonton, but have them close enough to touch.

At +20%, the Cup champs of 2023 - Vegas Golden Knights, are sitting right behind the trio at the top, which makes sense since they’re tied in the Pacific Division standings with the Oilers. Expectations were somewhat tempered for Vegas after they were beaten by Edmonton in the playoffs last season, but even though they’ve had to be more salary cap compliant this year, they’re as good as they were expected to be when finally at full-strength last year.

The Second Tier (Five threats)

As we get closer to the center of the NHL’s bell curve, the Stars, Avalanche, Maple Leafs, Devils and Lightning are all priced around 15% above average. Dallas comes with the best “TW Rating” of the group, so if they faced one of the others in the group in the playoffs and the betting line was predicated on them being equal, we’d be backing the Stars. If that sounds familiar, we did it last year when they faced the Avalanche.

Whether it was the early injury to Auston Matthews, or John Tavares’s recent absence, the Maple Leafs’ season has been choppy enough to keep their market rating in check. That’s an accomplishment, considering how often bettors can get out ahead of themselves in backing Toronto.

Speaking of injuries, the Devils haven’t been able to live up to a second straight year of big expectations, and they went into the break without Nico Hischier and their big offseason acquisition - Jacob Markstrom, for an extended period of time. Markstrom is a mega-upgrade on the goaltenders that have undermined New Jersey’s skaters the past two seasons, so a rating boost is on the horizon upon his and Hischier’s return.

The surprise of the group? The Lightning, who not only haven’t missed a beat after replacing Steve Stamkos with Jake Guentzel, but look to be better than last year’s squad that appeared to be out of gas after multiple Stanley Cup runs.

Fully Capable Quintet

The Jets, Kings, Rangers, Capitals and Predators are the remaining teams perceived to be above-average (Nos. 10 through 14), have gotten there in a variety of ways and in some cases, they haven’t always been.

The Jets opened the season with an absurd winning streak which banked them much of their league-leading 81 points, but while going 15-1 to start the season is sweet, a 24-16 record is more predictive of what’s to come going forward. Which isn’t a bad thing, as Winnipeg boasts the best “TW rating” of this group - something that comes with inconsistency.

The Rangers started 12-5 and the betting market was getting excited about another dangerous team in New York. Then they went 4-15, and their rating flopped back to league-average. An 11-8 run is more indicative of where the Rangers are in the league’s hierarchy, but that skid took them out the playoffs for now.

On the other coast, the Kings’ season has been almost the inverse, with a 13-4 stretch around the same time as the Rangers’ swoon.

The Predators have the third-fewest points in the standings, but the betting market still gives Nashville some respect, as a team that was expected to make the playoffs again this season.

Maybe it’s collectively trying to stay ahead of a team that started a streak of 18 straight games with a point (16-2 on the moneyline) last February 17th?

The case of the Washington Capitals proves that winning actual games doesn’t actually get you commensurate credit in betting markets. They’re one point behind the Jets with a game in hand. While that has head coach Spencer Carbery in position as the favorite to win the Jack Adams for coach of the year, they were lined as the 21st-ranked team in the NHL before the season, and the underlying metrics that make up the “TW rating” suggest Washington might be a little lucky to be in the President’s Trophy hunt.

The Chasers

We’ve touched on 14 teams, but, as you know, 16 make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Each year, there are a few merely average teams that make the postseason, so this isn’t unusual. After all, average teams should make up the middle of the pack.

If the Predators don’t get hot or the Rangers don’t fully right the ship, there will be four playoff spots available for “average” teams. One of those places is claimed by the Wild, but being without Kirill Kaprizov makes Minnesota merely average in the eyes of the betting market.

As expected playoff teams performing below expectations, the Bruins and Canucks have bummed their fans out, with the latter at least doing things in the trade market in an effort to turn it around in the hopes that an absurd 11 OT/SO losses has made things feel worse than they actually are.

While the Canucks are being chased by Utah, the Flames and the Blues, the Bruins wild return from the break looking to usurp fellow “mids” Ottawa and Detroit, both of whom the market had some optimism for in the offseason. The surprise team in the Wild Card race is Columbus, whose recent 10-3 stretch got them as high as -10%, only to drop four straight before the break.

The Islanders have been injury ravaged, but when healthy, they’ve been seen as a tick or two above average and are still in the mix for the playoffs. Which is more than we can say for a team that’s been killing their bettors all year. Similarly, as long as Sidney Crosby exists, hope always remains that the Penguins will be better next game.

The Hangers-On

One “fun” element to the NHL this season, is that there are so few truly bad teams, and 30 of them are reasonably capable of winning each night. So, even though the Kraken, Ducks, Canadiens, and Flyers appear out of the playoff hunt, all could make a run at being considered average.

The remaining two teams - Blackhawks and horror-show Sharks - aren’t to be trusted and have the underlying metrics to back up their record, meaning monster underdog odds are needed to take a shot with them on the moneyline on any given night, and we won’t have to worry about them come playoff time.

Quick reminder: As we venture forward at THE WINDOW, please acknowledge that you’ve found value in this content by liking (❤️) and/or restacking (🔄), to help others on Substack find THE WINDOW. 

“When I get it right, great! I want you to be able to see my work and understand how I got there, when I don’t.”