SCP Eastern Conference Final preview: Panthers and Hurricanes
Playoff history over metrics excellence? The betting market thinks so.
How do you account for a turnaround so quick, that this series preview is only just getting done and sent out now?
In less than 48 hours, the defending Stanley Cup Champions will have gone from a Game 7 win in Toronto, to the Conference Final’s Game 1 in Raleigh. Meanwhile, over in the West, each side gets the extra day of rest.
While the Stars and Oilers rematch from last season’s WCF, the Panthers and Hurricanes just met in the 2023 ECF. While the record books show a Florida sweep, each game couldn’t have been closer, with Carolina getting the edge in high-danger chances, 62-58:
Game 1: 3-2 (4 OT)
Game 2: 2-1 (OT)
Game 3: 1-0 (Shots: 32-17 Hurricanes, Sam Reinhart PPG)
Game 4: 4-3 (Game-winning goal with 5 seconds left)
While revenge is a nice narrative for Carolina, a more experienced edition of the Hurricanes won’t get a better chance to get over the hump of the East’s Stanley Cup representative from the previous two postseasons.
Road to the Conference Final
In-state rivals and cauldrons of emotion. That’s been the path for the Panthers to the Eastern Conference Final. A 4-1 series win in the “Battle of Florida” seems like a dominant showing, but our even-strength metrics suggest they were merely 52% to beat Tampa Bay in any given game. Luckily, they caught Andrei Vasilevskiy in a rough patch, as the future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer had a GSAx of -2.6.
Against the Maple Leafs, the Panthers’ own future Hall-of-Famer, Sergei Bobrovsky, struggled early as Florida got down 2-0. When Toronto stole Game 6, the Panthers had to rely on veteran experience and the possible inevitability that the Leafs would break under the pressure in Game 7. With a second 6-1 game at Scotiabank Arena, it’s hard to argue they didn’t.
When they were valuable (and how they did)
By our projections, the Panthers were appropriately lined as right around 50/50 to beat the Lightning, as Tampa Bay had home-ice advantage. The Lightning’s late-season surge had moved them up into “contender range” in estimated market ratings (EMR) at 20% above average, but what was underestimated was the Panthers’ ability to flip the proverbial switch from a lacklustre regular season (third place in the Atlantic) to the hardened playoff team that had gone 7-1 in series the last two postseasons.
Then came Toronto, who, by our numbers, were a valuable bet in the series and game-to-game. Sure enough, the Leafs won three games (+4.38 units) and lost four (-4 units) for a profit. The Panthers cashed series tickets (though not -1.5 games), but betting them game-by-game would have been an overall loss, as their three losses (-4.85 units) outweighed their four wins.
There are children born before the pandemic who don’t remember a time when the betting market wasn’t in love with the Hurricanes. Luckily for anyone paying the big prices for Carolina (just once were they either shorter than -150 on the road or -200 at home in 10 playoff games), they’re 8-2 this postseason (+4.8 units) against the Devils and top-seeded Capitals.
THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating
Regular season
Playoffs
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES XG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)The even-strength play-driving numbers for each team are comically close to the regular season (which were nearly identical to each other). Then, against a pair of good teams, the Panthers improved their SNIPES% in the postseason, while the Hurricanes have converted only six high-danger chances. That’s the major change in any calculations for who’s more likely to win a game between two highly-rated teams if they were to play on neutral ice.
Goaltender Effects
We looked at goaltender stats from down the stretch of the regular season for the first round matchups, and then a bunch of the netminders performed in direct opposition to their numbers. While two rounds of hockey isn’t a robust sample size, at least we’ve received information on how the four remaining starting goalies have handled the pressure of the postseason and how much that will shift win probability. As we did heading into the playoffs, we adjust that estimated win probability 25% towards the mean for the win probability differential.
While it can seem like the Hurricanes are making their opposing goaltenders look good (Jacob Markstrom: 5.22 GSAx, Logan Thompson: 3.53 GSAx), Frederik Andersen has been the best goaltender in the playoffs by Goals Saved Above Expected at an absurd 15.1.
By comparison, Bobrovsky and Adin Hill were at 19.3 and 13.5 on the way to playing four rounds in 2023, and only Igor Shesterkin had better than a 15.0 GSAx in last year’s playoffs.
By using this season’s playoffs alone, the expectation is that Andersen will save the Hurricanes a full goal per game more than the Panthers. However, if we just take their regular season numbers, while Andersen has the advantage, instead of a 16.8% win probability boost, it’s more like 4.5%, which feels like a more reasonable advantage to give Carolina.
How to bet Panthers-Hurricanes
Given the Hurricanes have somewhere between a 4.5% and 16.9% win probability advantage due to their goaltending along, and they get a few more percentage points to their side for having home-ice, how are they not favored?
If we start with the regular season stats that are almost identical, the Hurricanes should be favored once you apply goaltending and home-ice. Even if we give the Panthers the advantage due to their recent playoff success, those added elements swing to Carolina’s favor, even marginally, and that’s before adding something for the Hurricanes rest advantage ahead of Game 1.
The surprising element to Florida being favored is the betting market’s affinity with the Hurricanes, for years now. Carolina’s been rated as a 25% above average team for much of the regular season, which is why they were significant favorites over Washington despite not having home-ice advantage against the East’s top seed. However, it’s possible that the Panthers’ winning nine of their last 10 playoff series is something oddsmakers are interested in.
Any which way you calculate it, the Hurricanes should be projected to win this series slightly more than 50% of the time, but at +110, the implied win probability suggests it’s only 47.4%, providing at least a 3% edge on Carolina to win the series.
Series bet: Hurricanes to win (+110 at Bet365)
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: Hurricanes (-118 or better)
Game 3/4/6: Hurricanes (+115 or better)
Most goals: Andrei Svechnikov (+950, FanDuel)
The longer the playoffs go along, the less it’s worth doing anything out of the box, but when Andrei Svechnikov is being priced like that in the most goals market.
Through two series, Svechnikov has been the clear triggerman on the Hurricanes, with 35 shots on goal in 10 games, and the 25-year-old Russian has scored eight times.
On the Panthers’ side, Sam Reinhart has average 3.4 shots per game, and Sam Bennett’s six goals in 12 games aren’t nearly at the same rate as Svechnikov - who may be having a breakout playoff as he enters his prime.
With Florida spreading out the scoring (10 players with 3+ playoff goals), and how difficult it’s been to score on Andersen, a Hurricane is the way to go, and Svechnikov is the best value, with longer odds than both Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho.
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