Stanley Cup Final preview: Panthers and Oilers
Is it finally a superstar’s time to add a championship to his resume?
THE WINDOW on Substack exists because the last time I was sitting down to write a Stanley Cup Final preview between the Oilers and Panthers, I received a Slack message telling me I needed to be in a meeting in three minutes.
It’s rare that mid-level managers urgently and coldly bring you into a last-minute meeting to give you more money or a surprise promotion.
Instead, it was announced that the media company I worked for, who was at the forefront of getting sports betting legalized in Ontario years earlier (under different ownership), was no longer going to produce content designed to help bettors understand how to better handicap games and evaluate betting markets.
Our department had been essentially eliminated BEFORE a Stanley Cup Final preview could be published - evidence that any users who might be hoping for guidance ahead of hockey’s biggest showcase were merely an afterthought in any decision-making.
While it would seem like people enjoying your product would be the main driver of success for a brand, when things get too big, the profit/loss statements are the bottom line.
That’s the only thing relatable when it comes to how, one year later, we’re back in the same spot, digging into Florida vs. Edmonton. Only this time, the Slack app has been deleted off the phone with Substack in its place, and instead of worrying about notifications, we invite them.
A rare Stanley Cup rematch wasn’t something we had necessarily hoped for, but like this writer’s point of view from last year to this, the outlook in the matchup might be night-and-day as well.
Road to the Stanley Cup Final
Florida Panthers
The 2024 Stanley Cup Champions had the fourth-highest regular-season point total in betting markets last offseason, and came into this postseason rated 20% above an average team by the betting market, but their 11th-best record in the NHL meant they were rarely a good bet during the regular season, given the price bettors were asked to pay for a 47-35 team.
The Panthers opened their playoffs in Tampa Bay - the first of four Game 1’s on the road - in a virtual pick’em series. Beating the Lightning earned them enough respect to be favored against the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes.
While needing seven games to take out Toronto meant they were actually a losing bet on a game-to-game basis in that series, Florida’s 12-5 this postseason, as they’ve combined their new additions and a healthier Matthew Tkachuk to reach a level in play they didn’t have during the regular season.
Edmonton Oilers
After falling one game short of the greatest comeback in the history of the sport last June, the betting market gave the Oilers the highest estimated regular season point total last offseason.
They finished with the ninth-best record - one win more than the Panthers.
Nevertheless, the market rated Edmonton 25% above an average NHL team for much of the season, and only dropped them a notch at the end of the regular season because they phoned in games late, sitting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl with nagging injuries, on the way to the Oilers’ own third place divisional finish.
A rematch is one thing. A rematch between two teams who didn’t have home-ice advantage at any point this postseason is almost unfathomable, and all you need to know about the parity of the NHL.
In the first round of the playoffs, the Oilers were down 2-0 in the series with Los Angeles, and 4-3 at the start of the third period of Game 3. While they won that game (with help from a woeful challenge from Jim Hiller), they were likely “Quinton Byfield clearing the puck from this position” away from going down 3-1:
This puck didn’t get out of the zone (let alone into the empty net), and the Oilers have lost just twice since - both on wild finishes.
These are the razor-thin margins in the NHL.
The Oilers might have been one game away from an early exit, but instead they go 12-2 after allowing 12 goals in the first two games of the postseason.
THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating
Regular season
Playoffs
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES XG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)The improvement of both teams from the regular season to postseason is fascinating.
You can see that both skaters’ groups improved, with Florida’s team rating going from 9% above average to almost 11% and Edmonton going from 11.6% to 13.5% (in both cases, due to a boost in SNIPES percentage).
Weirdly, they’ve moved up in a commensurate way that the implied win probability those ratings create comes out to the same 51.3%/48.7% split in both the regular season and postseason.
All in all, the Oilers’ skaters are a couple percentage points better than the Panthers.
By comparison, last year’s playoff numbers were very similar coming into the Final, and Florida out-played the Oilers 51/49 in both even-strength xG and high-danger chances, winning in seven games.
Goaltender Effects
During the regular season, we’re constantly told that it matters who’s in net on a night-to-night basis, and it does, since you don’t want to be locked into a starting goaltender moneyline price before the backup gets announced. During the playoffs, though, trying to predict how any goaltending matchup is going to shift win probability has proven to be almost impossible. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try, so, as we have all postseason, we turn goaltenders GSAx into a win probability differential (adjusting that 25% towards the mean).
Normally, we’d be pretty relieved that the numbers add up to a minuscule adjustment for the goaltending in the series because that means we don’t have to worry about a certain goaltender playing up to an unsustainable level to outplay his counterpart.
Usually, two goaltenders that have already been in a Stanley Cup Final can be relied upon to save their team half a goal more than an average goaltender, which is exactly what Sergei Bobrovsky and Stuart Skinner have done, on average, this postseason.
However, Skinner’s bi-polar advanced metrics can strike fear in anyone trying to create an accurate estimation. In virtually every game he’s played this postseason, Skinner’s posted either an above-average GSAx or a well-below average GSAx.
Meanwhile, we thought we could assume that Jake Oettinger would be good enough to average a 0.5 GSAx, and he finished the Western Conference Final at -1.5.
For what it’s worth, Skinner accumulated 2.32 GSAx in last year’s 7-game series (0.34 GSAx/60), while Bobrovsky posted a total of just 0.26 GSAx (likely costing him the Conn Smythe trophy and leaving the door open for McDavid winning it in a losing cause).
How to bet Panthers-Oilers
You can point to the lede from the Western Conference Final preview as a spoiler for which side we were looking to bet, regardless of who came out of Dallas-Edmonton, and hopefully our long-term position on the Stars is validated in the coming weeks in that they would have lost to the eventual champion.
With the series line opening as a true pick’em at -110 on both sides, even before we had a chance to crunch the numbers, I was happy to send in a bet on the Oilers on speculation that it might be a valuable ticket to have.
Since then, the line has crept up on the Oilers, with DraftKings still offering it at as short as -120. With our projection of fair odds being FLA +127/EDM -127, anything better than -127 on Edmonton is at least fair.
While it often doesn’t look pretty, Skinner’s been able to get his body in front of pucks since returning to the crease midway through the Golden Knights series in Round 2. More importantly, the Oilers’ defense has appeared to make it a priority to collapse around their own crease, getting in front of shots. The Stars often (frustratingly) missed the net, because the Oilers were getting into shooting lanes in a way that they might not have been prioritizing early in the playoffs.
Mattias Ekholm finally returned late against the Stars. Getting back the Oilers’ best defender only strengthens a group that’s been bolstered by Jake Walman and Brett Kulak playing over 20 minutes per game, plus Troy Stetcher and John Klingberg being additive in limited action. All of which has taken some pressure off of Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard in their own zone.
The Oilers’ depth upfront has been documented, and while McDavid’s star power will be tested against Aleksander Barkov’s defensive prowess, there are other dangers, especially if Draisaitl’s on another line. The Panthers’ penalty kill has been the best in the playoffs, and held the Oilers to just 3-for-24 in last year’s Cup Final, but if Edmonton can improve on that at all, that might be enough of a difference-maker.
The biggest difference is that Edmonton has home-ice advantage this time around, and while these teams have won all six series despite starting on the road this postseason, the Panthers have shown more of a tendency to give away a game at home (5-1 in Game 3 vs. TB, 2-0 in Game 6 vs. TOR, 3-0 in Game 4 vs. CAR) with a 4-3 record in Sunrise, compared to the Oilers’ 6-1 home record.
Lastly, qualitatively, the Oilers had to have left last year’s final lamenting that they didn’t give a little bit more in the first three Stanley Cup Final games, knowing they were capable of beating Florida three straight times when things got desperate.
With a second chance, this time to do it on their own terms, the Oilers - led by the best player in the game in a season where he was the hero in hockey’s other biggest spotlight - are more likely than the odds suggest to hoist the Stanley Cup.
Stanley Cup Final bet: Oilers to win (-120, DraftKings)
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: Oilers (-123 or better)
Game 3/4/6: Oilers (+126 or better)
Most goals: Connor McDavid (+500, FanDuel)
Most shots on goal: Connor McDavid (+225, DraftKings)
Ahead of Round 2 with Vegas, we noted that McDavid was racking up shots on goal at a rate that might be surprising given that he scored just twice in six games with the Kings. Of course, he then scored just once in the series with the Golden Knights. Whoops.
However, the theory that goals were coming came to fruition one round later, as McDavid found the net three times in five games against Dallas.
McDavid’s up to 59 SOG in 16 games, 17 more than known shooter, Draisaitl.
In one extra game played, Florida’s leader Sam Bennett, is eight shots back of McDavid.
Because it’s the Stanley Cup, more prop markets are offered, which means we don’t just have to hope McDavid turns his shots into goals, we can just bet on him to lead the series in shots on goal as well.
Conn Smythe: Aleksander Barkov (+600, FanDuel)
< Add to our existing portfolio >
On THE WINDOW podcast, we’ve been updating a Conn Smythe portfolio throughout the playoffs:
We added Connor McDavid at 10-1 on the May 5th episode: “Rantanen and Ravin’” (Currently ~ +100):
We picked out Sam Bennett at 95-1 on the May 22nd episode: “Stars overmatched? Say again?” (Currently ~ +3900):
While a series bet on the Oilers is the official stance, and we’re hoping McDavid can cash the Conn Smythe tickets for his backers, at 6-to-1, it’s worth adding a piece on Barkov. +600 suggests he’s 14.3% to win the playoff MVP, which is far too low compared to the Panthers’ implied probability of almost 50%.
Barkov’s been the Panthers’ captain and MVP for years, and he’s one point ahead of Bennett for the team scoring lead.
Strangely, McDavid’s presence on the other side will also generate interest for Conn Smythe voters in favor of Barkov. If the Panthers win again, it will likely be due to tempered production from McDavid because of Barkov’s defensive ability.
Leadership, shutdown checking, and being among the leading scorers on the team is enough for Barkov to get the nod if Florida goes back-to-back.
With Bennett and McDavid tickets already in pocket, only Bobrovsky is the clear contender to by the fly in the ointment in this market, but he hasn’t been the Panthers’ best player this postseason, and the Oilers have enough firepower to make sure that’s not the case in this series, win or lose.
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