Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Avalanche-Stars series preview
Moving parts in and out of each lineup could swing the first round’s most intriguing matchup
For a while there, it seemed really sharp.
Buying a Stars’ Stanley Cup futures ticket in late February at +950 quickly gained over 4% of value as Dallas stormed up the oddsboard, becoming the championship favorite at +650 as recently as just over a week ago.
For the reasoning, here’s the clip from the February 24th episode of THE WINDOW podcast, “Quick Education”:
Shortly after the NHL’s return to action after the break for the 4 Nations Face-off, the Stars ripped off a 15-5 stretch, accruing points in all but three games, while making a run at the (previously thought to be un-catchable) Jets in the Central Division.
Then, starting on April 5, they just… kinda… stopped winning.
Much of Dallas’s late-season losing streak can be excused due to a pair of overtime losses, then knowing they would be stuck in the No. 2 slot, but either way, they went from possibly taking on the Western Conference’s second Wild Card to getting the perennial Cup-contending Avalanche in the first round.
This matchup may be headache-inducing when cross-referenced with the current futures markets. DraftKings still has the Stars favored for the Stanley Cup, but +120 underdogs in this series. Bet365 has the Avs and Stars second and third, respectively, with Florida the Cup favorite. Meanwhile, FanDuel has Colorado favored for the series, but Carolina’s the championship fave, and eight teams are above the Stars on the oddsboard.
Got it? Me neither.
With apologies to various “Battles” in the East, this is the crown-jewel matchup of the Stanley Cup Playoffs’ opening round, a battle between two teams who were lined second and third in the regular-season point total betting market, after having played a hotly-contested second-round series last year.
Jason Robertson left the Stars’ season finale with an apparent leg injury, adding even more intrigue to a series that has question marks surrounding the availability of much of its top talent.
The inside scoop
Whether you can find them on Substack, or elsewhere, here’s a take from a member of the media that’s followed each team closely, about what will make-or-break their chances in the playoffs.
The Avalanche:
“I think it’s obvious: How well will Gabriel Landeskog play? How much will his return impact the team on and off the ice? He hasn’t played in three years, but he’s still the captain and has looked good in his rehab stint. Landeskog is the X-factor.”
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,The Stars:
“The easy answer here is the (possible) return of Miro Heiskanen. If the Stars (already confirming he’s out for Game 1) can split the first two games and Heiskanen back by Game 3 or 4, that pushes every other defenseman down a tier. Given the team’s offense and goaltending have been big strengths this year, the defense is the clear weak spot.
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,THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES XG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)It would be weird if we crunched the numbers on the skaters and came up with one side being considerably better than the other, but a 50.1/49.9 split is still pretty jarring.
As Mr. Dater emphasizes above, the Avalanche appear to be getting back long-time captain Gabriel Landeskog. How effective he’ll be is anyone’s guess. Showing up for your first action in years and joining the intensity of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is a lot to ask. Meanwhile, the Stars have their own potential X-factor joiners - Tyler Seguin (back from Game 82) and Heiskanen, and now a questionable leading goal-scorer. The whole thing is a mess.
As for the players who have played the balance of the season, only the Jets and Capitals (the top-seeds of each conference) have a better SNIPES percentage this season than Dallas. With a mid-level power-play efficiency of 22.5%, the Stars’ even-strength high-danger chance conversion rate has done the heavy-lifting. Clicking at 14.1%, Dallas had the most high-danger goals at even-strength.
If you had to pick (using a tiebreaker, if you will), you’d prefer your talent showing up at 5-on-5, particularly with the likelihood of playoff overtime on a game-by-game basis. For a series as tight as this one, that may be the difference.
Goaltender Effects
We take into account of how the presumed starting goaltenders are playing coming into the postseason, estimating how much win probability will shift based on recent form. To be safe, we adjust that estimated win probability 25% towards the mean.
It feels like Jake Oettinger’s been around longer than just three full seasons, because he’s started 45 playoff games. They haven’t all gone well, but playoff experience in net is always a desired quality.
While the Stars have invested in the concept of the franchise goalie giving “Otter” and 8-year deal, the Avalanche keep trying to plug-and-play a netminder on a month-to-month basis, hoping they strike short-term gold.
Darcy Kuemper’s one-season cameo worked to the tune of a championship in 2022, but a pair of Alexandar Georgiev playoff runs didn’t, and he was dealt to San Jose for Mackenzie Blackwood.
On his third team, Blackwood’s no lock to play every game for the Avs, but whether it’s the former Devil or Scott Wedgewood (the former Devil AND Star), a 0.2 GSAx/60 might be a high-end result between the pipes for Colorado. While, subjectively, Oettinger is getting paid to save AT LEAST 0.4 goals above expectation per 60 minutes.
How to bet Avalanche-Stars
It’s hard to remember the last time the betting market wasn’t really into the Avalanche. Even before the 2022 Stanley Cup, with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, Colorado’s been given the benefit of a few doubts.
A first round upset at the hands of the Seattle Kraken in 2023 didn’t faze bettors last year, and losing to Dallas last year didn’t stop Colorado from being lined at 102.5 points before this season. Then, through much of the year the Avs have been held in high regard, as the last time we checked in on market power ratings, Colorado was deemed 25% above league-average, only to fall a point short of hitting the point total over.
Meanwhile, it was Dallas who cashed the over on their season point totals, as they didn’t miss a beat (until late) when Heiskanen got hurt, and they managed something of a steal by taking Mikko Rantanen away FROM the Avalanche (by way of a stopover in Carolina).
The Avalanche are likely content with Martin Necas, hopeful about Landeskog’s leadership boost, and expects that Valeri Nichushkin will be a playoff scoring force again, and the market is sharing those feels.
Dallas is the deeper team with six 20-goal scorers - which doesn’t include Jamie Benn (who will be a factor) or Seguin (just 19 games this season) - but the pessimism about when (and if) Heiskanen returns and whether Robertson is OK compared to the optimism around Colorado, has moved this line.
If the opening series line of -110/-110 was that was offered, we might be looking at betting a long series in the total games markets, but with a plus-price available on the Stars, we’ll stick with a team that we’ve already claimed can go all the way.
Series bet: Stars to win (+126, FanDuel)
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: Dallas (-120 or better, with Robertson)
Game 3/4/6: Dallas (+125 or better, with Robertson)
Leading goal-scorer prop: Valeri Nichushkin (+700)
Criteria:
1) Looking for a hot-scorer
2) Featured on the PP
3) Reason he’s underrated in the marketIn most cases, we’d try to find a player from the team we’ve bet on to lead the series in goals, but:
The Stars ability to spread the scoring around is what we like about them
We’ve seen too much from Valeri Nichushkin in the playoffs
Nichushkin scored nine times in the first seven games of the 2024 postseason, after 10 goals in 22 previous playoff games. Off-ice stuff has always been the issue for Nichushkin, but in a hotly-contested, probably-long series, we’ll back the sneaky-scariest member of the Avalanche to do the most individual damage.
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