Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Devils-Hurricanes series preview
Can New Jersey’s goaltending and defense step-up against analytics-darling Carolina?
The first match-up to be made official was Devils-Hurricanes, so we’ve had plenty of time to think about this.
With a new head coach and a regular-season point total set at 101.5 before the season, the Devils were favored for the Metropolitan Division and big things were expected of New Jersey, but injuries started to pile up early, and they fell short of that.
Tired of their goaltending repeatedly failing them in years’ past, the Devils dealt for Jacob Markstrom this offseason, but he missed the month of February, followed by Dougie Hamilton going down at early in March. Hamilton is back for the playoffs, but the potentially critical blow came when Jack Hughes was lost for the season.
The Hurricanes were right there when it comes to preseason expectation (100.5), but they too missed their No. 1 netminder, Frederik Andersen, for a significant period, while also turning Martin Necas into Mikko Rantanen into Logan Stankhoven, through a series of midseason trades.
On an annual basis, Carolina is the analytics darling of the league, but this era of the Storm Surge hasn’t broken through. The downfall for Rod Brind’Amour’s group has always come from an inability to convert their best scoring chances in a specific series, opening the door for an inferior opponent (by regular season standing) to steal it over numerous close games.
The inside scoop
Whether you can find them on Substack, or elsewhere, here’s a take from a member of the media that’s followed each team closely, about what will make-or-break their chances in the playoffs.
The Devils:
“Power-play success - or a lack thereof - will go a a long way to determining how the Devils fare in this series. They’ve been excellent on the man-advantage all season long and have still produced goals, and expected goals, at a top-5 rate without Jack Hughes. If the power play can chip in some key goals, and help compensate for a weak 5v5 offense, the Devils will have a chance.”
- Todd Cordell,
The Hurricanes:
“The shooting percentage struggles are there this year, but they’re not as bad as we’ve seen them in the past. The Canes are 20th in the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage, so they still grade out very well in goals for per 60 at 7th in the league.”
- Kyle Morton, Canes Country
THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES xG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)Seemingly every year the Hurricanes dominate even-strength metrics, and for the second time in three years, they’ve led the NHL in expected goal share (xG%).
Carolina was second to the Oilers in xG% last year, first in 2022-23, and fourth in 2021-22 and 2020-21.
In last year‘s playoffs, Carolina continued that success, at 55.4%, but went 6-5 and lost in the second round in six games to the Rangers.
This was vexing, because the Canes had converted 18.3% of their even-strength high-danger chances, making up for scoring just twice on 21 power-play opportunities. Add it all up and their SNIPES% was still an above-average 16.3%.
The Canes allowed seven even-strength goals on non-high-danger chances in the second around against the Rangers, putting the blame at the feet of Frederick Andersen, as he was no match for Igor Shesterkin’s usual strong performance at the other end.
The big concern about the Hurricanes this season is a sub-par conversion rate on their best scoring chances. Their SNIPES% was 5% below the league-average, and negates a lot of the good work they do in creating those chances.
The Devils make their return to the playoffs, having lost to Carolina in 2023. Without Hughes and Hamilton, their even-strength metrics dropped to right at league-average. So, the question is, how much of that is Hughes’ absence and how much will be rectified with the return of Hamilton?
If Hamilton can hit the ice at full speed, with Nico Hischier, Jesper Brett, and Timo Meier up front, will they be able to make up for what’s missing without Hughes?
Goaltender Effects
We take into account of how the presumed starting goaltenders are playing coming into the postseason, estimating how much win probability will shift based on recent form. To be safe, we adjust that estimated win probability 25% towards the mean.
With a strong finish to the regular season, Andersen is a nominee for a goaltender that could get hot in the postseason, but he also came into last year’s postseason smoking-hot with a 1.46 GSAx/60 in the 10-game tune-up he had after returning from a long-term injury.
Meanwhile, Markstrom has been brutal in his return from injury, allowing over a half-goal per game more than expectation.
Knowing that goaltending often levels out, applying our 25% adjustment towards the mean for both Andersen and Markstrom, we lower the bar of expectation for Andersen and raise it for Markstrom. Especially, since the Devils will likely turn to Jake Allen if Markstrom costs them a game or two early in the series.
How to bet Devils-Hurricanes
At full-strength, the Devils’ market rating to start the season was of a team 11% above-average. It’s fallen to around league-average (1.00) without Hughes and Hamilton, but the return of a workhorse defenseman should return expectations to around 4% (1.04) above-average, as Hamilton is a member of our 4% Club.
Unfortunately, the Devils’ goaltending is set to undermine them again, and they’re one shooter short should this series turn into a run-and-gun goal-fest.
Key stat to look for: If the Hurricanes’ goaltending creates a difference of 1.0 GSAx per game, Carolina is 75% likely to win the series and valuable at -245 (DraftKings).
Laying those odds is a bit rich for a matchup with comparable talent in the 18 skaters, so we’ll look at the derivative markets for a bet on this series.
For the series spread, I have the fair price for Carolina -1.5 games at -130 (56.5% IWP). At -115 (53.5% IWP) via DraftKings, that’s a 3% edge to back the Hurricanes to get this series done in six games or less.
While the ‘Canes have been known to slip-up earlier than assumed, that’s usually come against a goaltender who’s stood on his head to frustrate and end the Surge the last three springs (Shesterkin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Shesterkin again), but that’s not what they’re facing in the first round this season.
Series bet: Hurricanes -1.5 games (-115, DraftKings)
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: Carolina (-180 or better)
Game 3/4/6: Carolina (-130 or better)
Leading goal-scorer prop: Jackson Blake (+1200)
Criteria:
1) Looking for a hot-scorer
2) Featured on the PP
3) Reason he’s underrated in the marketThe Hurricanes’ rookie has five (of his 17) goals in April and has spent time up on the top line with Sebastian Aho (+500) and Seth Jarvis (+500), and the Hurricanes’ first power-play unit. With just five power-play goals this season, Jackson Blake’s overall numbers are depressed, and he’s not getting the national attention amongst a quality rookie class. At more than double the payout of his linemates, and bursting with confidence at the end of the season, Blake’s worth a flyer in a short sample size.
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